Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
102 FXUS64 KFWD 082338 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 638 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - A Heat Advisory remains in effect for most of North Texas and East Texas through Saturday afternoon. - Slightly lower temperatures and low rain chances are expected over the weekend through next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: No major changes needed to the short term forecast other than to lower high temperatures a couple of degrees for Saturday along with dewpoints. Heat index values will remain near or slightly above 105 degrees. Dunn Previous Discussion: /Through Saturday Afternoon/ Hot, humid, and quiet conditions will persist across North and Central Texas into the weekend, as the expansive upper ridge centered over New Mexico continues to dominate the synoptic pattern. Mid-level heights near 594 dam and a deeply mixed boundary layer will support highs in the upper 90s up to 105 degrees. The most oppressive heat will be focused east of the I-35 corridor, where surface dewpoints in the lower to mid 70s will yield heat index values in the 105-110 degree range. Overnight lows will remain uncomfortably warm in the mid to upper 70s due to elevated dewpoints and residual boundary layer warmth, offering little relief following the daytime heat. Persistent southerly winds will continue to transport Gulf moisture northward tonight, setting us up for another hot and humid day tomorrow. On Saturday, the upper ridge is expected to weaken slightly as mid-level heights begin to fall in response to the weak inverted trough shifting westward along the Texas Gulf Coast and a deepening trough over the northern Plains. The net result is a subtle reduction in daytime highs, particularly across parts of Central Texas. East of the I-35 corridor, temperatures should be a few degrees lower than what we see today, but with dewpoints remaining in the lower to mid 70s heat index values will again climb into the 105-110 degree range. Farther west, lower humidity will limit heat indices somewhat, but actual air temperatures may still reach as high as 103 degrees in isolated locations. Therefore, the Heat Advisory that was set to expire later this evening has been extended (in its current configuration) through 7 PM CDT Saturday. Despite the ridge`s subtle weakening, strong subsidence will still preclude meaningful precipitation chances for most of the area. Some weak ascent along a diffuse seabreeze boundary may be sufficient to support a few isolated showers or storms to our southeast. However, it remains unlikely that any of this activity will reach the Brazos Valley before dissipating. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 149 PM CDT Fri Aug 8 2025/ /Saturday Night and Beyond/ The upper ridge will continue its gradual westward shift late weekend into early next week as troughing amplifies over the Great Lakes/Northeast and the previously mentioned inverted upper trough drifts nearby. This more trough dominated pattern will provide at least minor relief from the heat with highs gradually settling into the lower to mid 90s by midweek. Doesn`t sound like much of an improvement from current conditions, but these temperatures are actually below-normal for this time of the year. You have to take your wins where you can get them! The latest NBM and ensemble guidance continues to support at least a low (20-30%) chance for daily seabreeze showers and thunderstorms beginning Sunday, primarily across the Brazos Valley and adjacent portions of Central Texas. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR will prevail through the period with south winds 10-15 kt. No significant aviation concerns are expected through the period. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 79 99 79 98 78 / 0 0 0 0 5 Waco 77 98 76 95 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 Paris 75 97 76 96 74 / 0 0 0 0 5 Denton 78 100 77 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 McKinney 78 99 76 98 75 / 0 0 0 0 5 Dallas 81 99 79 99 78 / 0 0 0 0 5 Terrell 77 98 75 97 75 / 0 0 0 5 5 Corsicana 77 98 76 98 76 / 0 0 0 5 5 Temple 75 97 73 95 73 / 0 0 0 5 5 Mineral Wells 76 101 74 99 73 / 0 0 0 0 5 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-131>135-146>148-162. && $$