142
FXUS64 KFWD 241041
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
541 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025

...New Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Isolated showers and storms (10 to 20% chance) are possible
  each afternoon this week, mainly in Central and East Texas.

- Seasonably hot conditions will continue through the weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1217 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
/Through Wednesday/

A stout upper ridge will remain anchored across the Mid-Atlantic
and Ohio Valley regions through the midweek period, placing North
and Central Texas on its western periphery. This will maintain
weak southerly flow through the column, with a modest fetch of
low-level moisture. A persistence forecast will be the result,
with diurnally driven isolated shower and thunderstorm activity
in parts of Central and East Texas this afternoon and again
Wednesday afternoon. The greatest coverage (of only 10-20%)
will coincide with peak heating. Otherwise, near normal
temperatures will persist with highs in the low/mid 90s and
overnight lows in the 70s. Mixing out of 70s surface dewpoints
into the 60s by the afternoon will keep maximum heat index values
to around 100F or less both today and tomorrow.

-Stalley

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 323 AM CDT Tue Jun 24 2025/
/Wednesday Night Onward/

Seasonably hot and mostly rain-free weather will be the main
story for the extended forecast as the strong ridge currently over
the Mid Atlantic expands west through the Southern Plains.
Fortunately, the ridge will be in a weaker state when over North
and Central Texas compared to its current intensity, as it becomes
compromised by multiple disturbances rotating around its
periphery later this week. Even though it will be hot headed into
the weekend, temperatures are not expected to be anywhere near
record values. Triple digit highs are even looking less likely
compared to this time yesterday based on the latest guidance, with
weekend highs likely topping mainly in the mid and upper 90s.

Seabreeze convection will be possible once again Thursday
afternoon, but may shut off completely over the weekend due to
increasing subsidence aloft. The ridge will further weaken early
next week, however, as another shortwave traverses its northern
flank and a weak front sags south into the Red River area. Storm
chances, though not great, should then reenter the picture during
the early to middle part of next week.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/12z TAFs/

VFR and south/southeast winds around 10 kts will prevail through
the period. Patchy MVFR stratus currently exists well to the
south and west of Waco as of 11z. This cloud layer is unlikely to
advance farther northeast through the rest of the morning, so no
mention will be carried in the Waco TAF. All afternoon shower and
thunderstorm activity is expected to remain southeast of the
airports today.

-Stalley

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    94  75  93  76  94 /   0   5   5   0  10
Waco                92  74  90  73  92 /  10   5  20   0  20
Paris               91  73  91  73  92 /   5   5  10   0  10
Denton              94  74  93  75  94 /   0   5   5   0  10
McKinney            93  75  92  75  94 /   5   5  10   0  10
Dallas              94  76  94  76  95 /   5   5   5   0  10
Terrell             92  73  91  73  92 /   5   5  10   0  10
Corsicana           91  73  91  75  93 /  10   5  20   0  10
Temple              92  72  91  73  93 /  10   5  10   0  20
Mineral Wells       92  72  94  73  95 /   0   0   5   0  10

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$