521
FXUS64 KFWD 032340
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
640 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- An isolated strong to severe thunderstorm may develop along a
  stalled front across our southeast through 10 PM. Large hail is
  the main threat, with a lower threat for damaging winds.

- There will be multiple, potentially numerous, rounds of strong
  to severe thunderstorms through Saturday.

- The flooding threat will increase as we head into this weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Friday Afternoon/

Much of this afternoon and evening will be uneventful with cold
air advection on the northern side of a meandering boundary
covering most of North and Central Texas. The only exception is
for locations south/southeast of a stalled front that is currently
hovering across our extreme southeastern counties (Milam Co. up
through Anderson Co.). This region has the best thermodynamics and
kinematics for isolated strong to severe thunderstorm
development. Given the proximity to the stalled boundary, any
thunderstorms that manage to develop along this could become
surface based. In this scenario, all hazards will be possible -
although large hail remains the greatest threat with damaging
winds being the secondary threat. This potential will linger
through 10 PM this evening, although recent activity has only
involved an isolated shower that traversed to the northeast along
the boundary. A healthy field of cumulus still exists.

Through the overnight hours, the stalled boundary will attempt to
gradually head north once again. Most CAMs are in agreement with
the development of warm advection showers starting as early as 1
AM. This activity will once again spread north, with better
convection firing off to our west and northwest where the better
lift associated with an embedded shortwave and surface low will
be located. This activity will begin to push east and reach our
western/northern border by as early as 4 to 5 AM. The exact
placement of the aforementioned boundary will dictate whether the
storms remain elevated in nature or attempt to become surface
based. Elevated thunderstorms will be associated with large hail
(up to 2 inches in diameter) as the main threat. Surface based
thunderstorms, should they manage to latch onto the slow moving
warm front, will see an increase in a damaging wind and tornado
threat. This strong to severe thunderstorm potential will linger
through about 7 to 8 AM. There will be a brief lull through the
mid to late morning hours before storms once again fire off
through Friday afternoon as our lift pushes into a more favorable
environment for severe thunderstorms. Once again, large hail will
be the main threat, with damaging winds and tornadoes possible
should storms become surface based. On top of this, our flooding
threat will continue to increase as the same locations across our
northeast receive more rainfall. A Flood Watch will go into effect
across this region at 1 AM. This watch will linger through much
of the weekend. More details can be found in the long term.

Reeves

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 254 PM CDT Thu Apr 3 2025/
Update:
Our final rounds of strong to severe showers and storms are
expected to end out the week as the upper level system finally
transits east. 0-6km flow will be parallel to the frontal
boundary, promoting upscale growth of scattered discrete cells and
clusters into more of a linear storm mode as they move east
overnight through Saturday morning. With the front expected to be
draped across East and Central Texas, most of this activity will
be elevated and pose a risk for large hail in an environment of
1000-2000 J/kg of MUCAPE and lapse rates > 7 degC/km. Once again,
any storm that forms near/south of the front could pose an all-
hazards threat. The flooding threat will also increase with a
reasonable 1-2" additional inches of rain across the region
expected Friday night-Sunday on top of what will have already been
received.

The front and the majority of the precipitation should move east
of the region during the day Saturday, with some scattered
lingering activity through the afternoon. Otherwise, not much has
changed from the last forecast after populating with the latest
NBM data. Therefore, the forecast discussion remains valid.

Prater

Previous Discussion:
/Friday Night Onward/

Starting Friday night - A deep Northern Plains-Southern Rockies
upper trough will contain a closed low over the Desert Southwest,
while a Pacific cold front once again stalls over East and Central
Texas. The upper low will advance east into far West Texas by
Saturday morning before turning northeast across Northwest Texas
Saturday afternoon. Surface based storms along the front may start
to weaken late in the evening across our East and Central Texas
counties with the loss of surface CAPE. A large swath of elevated
convection will develop across the rest of the forecast area
Friday night, however, as strong synoptic scale ascent arrives,
thunderstorm development will also be largely driven by a deep
southerly fetch aloft and subsequent isentropic upglide above the
frontal layer. Around 1500 j/kg of elevated CAPE along with 50 to
60 kt of effective shear will support a large hail threat through
the overnight hours into Saturday morning.

Another inch or more of rain will not be uncommon to end the
week, which will maintain a flood threat across mainly eastern
counties through the overnight/Saturday morning hours. Rain
chances will end from west to east Saturday afternoon and evening
as the upper low transitions to an open wave while accelerating
off to the northeast, and the cold front pushes southeast into the
Deep South and the northwest Gulf. A second push of cool air will
arrive Saturday night, making for much cooler and breezy weather
on Sunday with afternoon highs generally in the upper 50s.

The axis of the main upper trough will finally shift east of the
region during the day Sunday, while upper ridging builds in from
the west in its wake. Dry weather and a warming trend will ensue,
with Monday highs in the 60s and Tuesday in the mid and upper 70s.
A fast-moving shortwave in the northwest flow aloft will bring
more clouds and slightly cooler temperatures for Wednesday and
Thursday, but at this time it looks like any precipitation
associated with the system will remain northeast of the CWA.

30

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00z TAFs/

Concerns...MVFR/IFR ceilings, early morning VCTS, north winds.

MVFR ceilings will linger across all TAF sites through much of
the period with little in the way expected for improvement. IFR
ceilings will return overnight tonight and there is a medium
chance that they linger through the late morning and early
afternoon. Ceilings may continue to lower down to LIFR across
Central Texas, but this potential is too low to include in the
TAFs right now. VCSH/RA will enter the TAF around 08-09z with
VCTS returning to the TAFs for the D10 terminals around 16z. TSRA
potential appears low through this timeframe but will be worth
keeping an eye on through the overnight period. Winds will remain
northerly for much of the period but may attempt to become more
easterly overnight through the morning, though speeds will be
light - generally AOB 7 knots. There is a low chance that winds
gain a more southerly component through the early morning hours on
Friday but this scenario is too unlikely to add to the TAFs.

Reeves

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is likely over the next couple of days over
parts of North and Central Texas.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    57  67  53  61  40 /  70  90 100  80  40
Waco                61  73  56  64  41 /  50  70 100  70  10
Paris               57  75  55  63  40 /  70  90 100 100  50
Denton              52  65  49  59  35 /  80  90 100  80  50
McKinney            56  68  52  60  39 /  70  80 100  90  40
Dallas              58  68  54  62  41 /  70  80 100  90  40
Terrell             59  76  55  64  41 /  60  80 100  90  30
Corsicana           63  79  58  67  44 /  40  80 100  90  10
Temple              63  77  56  67  41 /  40  70 100  60   5
Mineral Wells       52  64  50  58  36 /  80  80 100  70  40

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 1 AM CDT Friday through Sunday morning for
TXZ094-095-105>107-123.

&&

$$