294
FXUS64 KFWD 221734
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
1134 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Above normal temperatures and breezy south winds are forecast
  this weekend.

- Thanksgiving Day`s forecast is trending cool, dry, and breezy.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today and Tomorrow/

The southern periphery of a high pressure ridge will move into
East Texas this afternoon and settle into the lower Mississippi
River Valley this weekend. This will result in pleasant afternoon
temperatures with light winds and low humidity across the region
today. As the surface high shifts east, the mid-level ridge to
our west will break down as a stout trough digs into the Western
CONUS. The flattening ridge will result in cross flow overtop of
the Rockies and leeside pressure falls to our west. South flow
will return tonight and start to draw warm and moist air north
through the weekend.

Temperatures should be a few degrees warmer tomorrow morning,
particularly for areas west of I-35. Areas east of I-35 will
still be heavily influenced by the surface ridge and fall into the
mid 30s. Tomorrow afternoon will be mild, or about 5-10 degrees
warmer than today. The winds will also be a little breezy in the
afternoon, generally between 10-15 mph with occasional gusts to
around 20 mph.

Bonnette

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 251 AM CST Fri Nov 22 2024/
/Saturday through Thanksgiving Day/

The long-term forecast continues to highlight the warming trend
over the weekend, followed by a couple of cold fronts next week
and the potential for some rain just before Thanksgiving Day.

The weather pattern will remain fairly quiet over the weekend
with zonal flow aloft and the surface high pressure to our east.
The return of the southerly winds will result in warmer
afternoons with highs peaking in the upper 70s to lower 80s by
Sunday. Breezy conditions are also expected on Sunday given a
tight pressure gradient between the ridge to our east and the next
low pressure system to our west. This low and associated cold
front will travel across our region on Monday, knocking our
temperatures back down to more seasonal values. No rain is
expected with this system, but we will see a large spread in
Monday`s highs as the front moves through during the day. North
Texas will see highs during the morning hours (mainly in the 60s),
but our Central Texas counties may still warm up into the upper
70s to lower 80s as the front arrives later in the day. Widespread
cooler weather is expected on Tuesday before the next system
arrives on Wednesday.

By mid-week, we`re still looking at the next surface front that
could bring some light rain for some of our eastern counties and
cloudy/cooler weather for the rest of us. While there`s still
some uncertainties here and there, the bulk of the guidance show
the front moving over our area Wednesday night with Thanksgiving
day being cool and breezy. Even if the models begin to trend
towards a slower solution, the bulk of the precipitation is still
expected to stay north and east of our area.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

ENE (030-090) winds AOB 05 kts will prevail this afternoon before
becoming southeasterly (110-130) this evening. Gusty south
(180-160) flow is expected tomorrow afternoon, but we did not add
an extra line to the DFW TAF since those subtle details (i.e.
won`t have a high impact to aircraft operations) can be added with
future TAFs. VFR will prevail with passing cirrus overhead.

Bonnette

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    66  45  72  57  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  41  74  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               64  37  68  50  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              65  37  72  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            66  38  71  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              66  44  73  56  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             65  38  72  53  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           68  42  73  55  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  41  76  54  83 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       69  39  76  53  82 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$