215
FXUS64 KFWD 250837
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
237 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two cold fronts this week will deliver multiple shots of cooler
  air into North and Central Texas. The first front will arrive
  Monday morning, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal
  normals.

- Another cold front arrives Wednesday night bringing much cooler
  temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

- The majority of North Texas and several locations across
  Central Texas will see the first freeze of the season Thursday
  night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 116 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024/
/Through Tuesday Afternoon/

The holiday week begins with a pretty substantial change in
airmass as a strong mid/upper-level shortwave trough races across
the northern/central Plains towards the Great Lakes. A dry Pacific
cold front extending from the associated surface low will begin
pushing into North Texas just before daybreak. Tonight, the
persistent southerly breeze will keep temperatures rather mild
with early morning low temperatures only falling into 50s and
lower 60s. The exception will be in our far northwestern zones
where temperatures may dip into the upper 40s as the
aforementioned cold front encroaches.

Late evening surface analysis and observational trends show the
cold front is making quick progress through the Plains and is
currently pushing through central Oklahoma. The timeline of the
frontal passage, according to the 00Z ensemble mean is as follows:

* Red River Valley & adjacent areas - by 4 to 6 am
* The I-20 corridor - by 7 to 9 am
* Central and East Texas - by midday and through the early afternoon

Morning forecast soundings across North Texas show only a shallow
layer of moisture near the surface with a PW value near the
climatological daily average for late November. Given the overall
lack of deep layer moisture, measurable rainfall remains
unlikely, however we cannot completely rule out a few sprinkles,
particularly across parts of North Texas. A dry forecast was
maintained with this update.

For temperatures, today will be one of those unusual non-diurnal
days where temperatures are dropping behind the front during the
normal peak heating hours. For North Texas, expect temperatures to
fall fairly quickly after FROPA with today`s high temperatures
likely realized during the morning hours. Ahead of the front
(Central and SE TX), temperatures should climb into the 70s before
the front arrives later today. The latest run of the NAM suggest
the NBM may be running too warm, as the NAM is known to better
resolve the boundary layer with shallow cold fronts like this.
With this update, the default NBM temperatures were blended with
cooler guidance to better reflect post-frontal CAA.

In addition to falling temperatures, the tightened pressure
gradient will create breezy conditions with brisk north winds of
10-15 mph and occasional gusts to 25 mph through the afternoon.
Winds will drop to 10-15 mph after sunset as the pressure gradient
relaxes and low level flow begins to decouple. Be prepared for a
much chillier start Tuesday with morning lows ranging from the mid
30s (NW) to the lower 40s (SE). The airmass will modify quickly
on Tuesday as the surface high shifts east and south winds make a
brief return ahead of the next cold front. Highs on Tuesday will
be near seasonal normals in the 60s.

12

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Tuesday Night Onward/

After a cool start of the week, a brief but significant warm-up
is expected on Wednesday. We`re looking at temperatures rising to
15-20 degrees above normal for late November. The breezy
south/southwest winds will result in highs in the 70s to low 80s
for North Texas and low/mid 80s for Central Texas.

We will remain in an active weather pattern during the latter half
of the week as the next upper trough progresses eastward across
the southern Plains. The associated cold front will push south
and into our area Wednesday evening/night with a much colder
airmass behind it. Prepare for a chilly/cool and breezy
Thanksgiving Day. The day will start cloudy, but then should
slowly clear out in the afternoon as the drier air arrives. A cold
night will follow as North Texas`s first widespread freeze is
becoming more likely. A few spots across Central Texas will also
see their first freeze of the season. Sufficient radiational
cooling in addition to the light northerly winds should allow
temperatures to drop to the upper 20s and mid 30s.

The seasonably cooler and dry conditions will continue Friday and
into the weekend with highs in the 50s/60s and lows in the
30s/40s. The majority of the extended guidance is showing another
cold front late Saturday which could bring a much colder Canadian
airmass into the region.

Sanchez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 116 AM CST Mon Nov 25 2024/
/06Z TAFs/

Aviation Concerns: MVFR cigs and surface wind shift associated
with FROPA

VFR conditions prevail with southerly surface winds shifting to
the north and gusting to 25 knots in the immediate wake of a dry
Pacific cold front. Timing of the front has not changed from the
previous TAF cycle with the wind shift occurring around 13-14Z in
the Metroplex and around 16-17Z at ACT. Confidence has increased
(HREF showing a 30-50% probability) in the potential for MVFR
ceilings briefly developing in the immediate vicinity of the
frontal boundary. The 00Z HREF and several runs of the HRRR have
shown an area of lowered ceilings passing near or over the
Metroplex between 15 and 17Z. Any pockets of low-level stratus
that develop should only briefly impact terminals as very strong,
dry northerly surface winds associated with the front will shunt
moisture quickly east of the TAF sites. Wind speeds will drop to
10-15 knots Monday evening as surface high pressure builds into
the region and the pressure gradient relaxes.

12

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    60  39  61  53  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                70  39  65  53  84 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               61  36  60  47  74 /   0   0   0   0   0
Denton              58  35  61  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            59  36  61  49  78 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              60  40  63  52  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             65  38  63  50  79 /   0   0   0   0   0
Corsicana           71  41  65  53  81 /   0   0   0   0   0
Temple              72  39  67  52  85 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       58  36  64  49  80 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$