Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
547 FXUS64 KFWD 010623 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 1223 AM CST Thu Jan 1 2026 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... .KEY MESSAGES... - Quiet weather with above normal temperatures can be expected through early next week. - Rain chances arrive on Wednesday with an upper level storm system and cold front. && .SHORT TERM... (Tonight through Friday Night) Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 The primary weather features in the near term are a mid/upper ridge positioned just west of the region and a surface ridge over the Gulf. Subsidence associated with the upper ridge combined with south to southwest winds around the northwest flank of the surface ridge will push Thursday temperatures into the upper 60s to mid 70s. Those numbers are roughly 15 to 20 degrees above normal, which should make for a pleasant start to the new year. Thursday night lows (mostly in the 50s) will all be 20 to 25 degrees above normal for early January. The upper ridge will undergo a weakening trend Thursday night and Friday as a pair of shortwaves develop and propagate around its northern flank. The first disturbance will work its way eastward through the Southern Plains Thursday night into Friday morning. It will be accompanied by a swath of mid and high clouds, which may be enough to squeeze out some occasional virga or perhaps a few sprinkles. A lack of moisture, however, will limit any precip reaching the ground to either a trace or a few hundredths of an inch. A weak cold front will also accompany the system, which will push south to near the I-20 corridor before stalling on Friday. The second shortwave will sweep southeast through North Texas Friday night, but any significant available moisture will have been scoured by the preceding disturbance. The main result will be a secondary push for the cold front, which will send it south through the entire area Friday night as the shortwave heads for the Central Gulf Coast. Friday`s high temperatures will hence be split between the upper 60s along the Red River (north of the briefly stalling front) to the lower 80s across Central Texas. Temperatures will then drop into the 40s Friday night behind the front. && .LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Wednesday) Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 The weekend will feature a slight cool-down following the passage of the rather un-impressive (for January) cold front. Temperatures will still be well above normal, with highs ranging from the low 60s along the Red River to the low 70s across Central Texas. Despite the above normal temperatures, Saturday night will be on the cool side with lows in the upper 30s to lower 40s. Ridging aloft will then re-intensify Sunday and remain positioned from Mexico northward through the Plains, with North and Central Texas lying directly beneath its axis. This should continue our warm streak through at least the first part of next week, when highs in the 70s and lows in the 50s can be expected area-wide through Tuesday. (A few spots will no doubt surpass 80 at some point.) Wednesday features some uncertainty, as mid range guidance is currently signaling a more unsettled pattern developing, but will not get too hopeful just yet based on the recent pattern. The current forecast will include low POPs for Wednesday associated with an upper trough and the next cold front, and will fine tune the details as additional guidance arrives in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Mid and high clouds will gradually increase over the next 24 hours as a weak disturbance approaches from the west, and a few sprinkles and/or virga will be possible Thursday night. Conditions are expected to remain VFR, however, with south to southwest winds around 10 kt prevailing through the end of the period. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1145 PM CST Wed Dec 31 2025 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 66 42 70 55 / 0 0 0 10 Waco 67 40 71 58 / 0 0 0 10 Paris 62 37 67 51 / 0 0 0 20 Denton 66 36 68 49 / 0 0 0 10 McKinney 64 38 68 52 / 0 0 0 10 Dallas 65 42 70 57 / 0 0 0 10 Terrell 66 37 69 54 / 0 0 0 10 Corsicana 69 42 72 58 / 0 0 0 10 Temple 69 38 73 55 / 0 0 0 10 Mineral Wells 69 36 73 51 / 0 0 0 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...30 LONG TERM....30 AVIATION...30