Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
047 FXUS64 KFWD 261139 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 639 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 ...New UPDATE, AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated severe storms will continue along the Red River this morning with a large hail threat. - Isolated severe storms are expected again this evening along and north of I-20 and west of I-35. Very large hail and damaging winds will be the main threats. - An active pattern will persist through the upcoming week with low storm chances through Wednesday and higher storm chances Thursday and Friday including the potential for heavy rainfall. && .UPDATE... Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 A couple of tweaks to the morning forecast...An elevated supercell continues across Grayson and Fannin counties this morning aided by a modest low level jet atop a slightly cooler convectively cooled airmass. MUCAPE in excess of 2000 J/kg will still support a large hail threat with this storm for another 1-2 hours. The storm has begun to turn more rightward indicative of a mature supercell and is likely to produce hail >2" downstream. We`ll maintain localized high PoPs in this area for another couple of hours. Also added some low mentionable PoPs (~10%) again for our western counties as it now appears that convective outflow from these morning storms and a sharpening dryline will focus an area of convergence off to the northwest of the Metroplex in another highly unstable afternoon environment. While the high resolution guidance is typically all over the place with respect to the location of storm development in these types of environments with modest capping, the trend toward more convection in the guidance suggests that they`re picking up on sufficient forcing to get through this capping. While we won`t specifically forecast a repeat of yesterday, the parameter space is certainly sufficient for a repeat of isolated supercells with a very large hail and damaging wind threat. Weaker low level winds may limit tornado potential, but given extreme instability and a strengthening low level jet after dark, isolated tornadoes cannot be ruled out. The general threat area will be similar to Saturday night`s storms. Dunn && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 Scattered severe storms continue tonight over the Metroplex with additional isolated activity north of I-20 toward the Red River. Two main supercell storms appear to be riding an old convective outflow boundary and have produced swaths of severe hail and flash flooding. These storms will have ample instability to work with for another few hours before stronger inhibition takes over and storm intensity begins to wane. Farther to the north of the two main supercells...isolated convective activity will continue through the overnight hours aided by weak persistent forcing for ascent and modest low level warm advection. We`ll maintain scattered PoPs through the rest of the overnight mainly north of I-20 and east of I-35. In the wake of this early morning convective activity, atmospheric recovery will be rather quick with southerly flow resuming by mid morning and instability climbing into the afternoon. With the southerly flow and southwest winds above the surface, capping will develop atop the moist boundary layer. This capping will likely be stronger than Saturday, and should generally inhibit additional storm development during peak heating. Troughing will become a little more amplified and a shortwave trough will eject into the Central Plains by late in the day. Right now it looks like this forcing will be displaced too far north for any storms to develop in our area. We`ll keep PoPs at 10%, but similar to Saturday, any isolated storms that can develop would pose a threat for severe weather. Activity would diminish during the late evening hours with Sunday night being mostly quiet, warm and humid. Dunn && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1241 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 The forecast through next week will feature periodic storm chances with the threat for widespread showers and storms during the latter part of the week. The aforementioned troughing over the western CONUS will become slightly more amplified through Monday with several shortwave troughs spreading eastward into the Plains. On Monday, a Pacific front/dryline will push as far east as the I-35 corridor with the main forcing well to our north. Widespread severe weather is expected across the Midwest, but a trailing frontal boundary will likely be supportive of thunderstorms during the afternoon. We`ll have PoPs around 20% for this time. On Tuesday an actual cold front will slide south through the Plains and should be near the Red River by late in the day. A dryline will also be positioned across our western counties as a more pronounced trough moves through the Southern Plains. This should again be enough for scattered storms to develop across North Texas, favoring areas near the Red River. This frontal boundary should slide south of the area on Wednesday then retreat back to the north late Thursday and Friday as a potent shortwave kicks out across northwest Mexico. This will likely result in widespread showers and thunderstorms across the region late Thursday night into Friday. Some widespread heavier rainfall amounts may occur during this time. We`ll continue to refine this forecast over the coming days. Dunn && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 617 AM CDT Sun Apr 26 2026 MVFR and IFR cigs are rapidly filling in across North Texas this morning and this should linger through midday. We`ll start off with BKN018 at most sites with a TEMPO for BKN009 through 14Z. Cigs should start to lift and scatter a bit by mid/late morning as stronger southerly winds and deeper mixing commences. VFR should return this afternoon and prevail through late tonight. There is a low chance again for isolated severe thunderstorms to develop across western parts of the area and move into the D10 airspace this evening. We`ll leave the mention of TS out of the current TAF for now as probs are around 10% currently, but an additional threat of significant storms is on the table for this evening. Otherwise, another round of MVFR cigs is expected late tonight into Monday morning. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation may be requested late this afternoon and evening across parts of North Texas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 Waco 89 72 90 72 / 0 10 20 10 Paris 84 70 86 68 / 60 20 20 20 Denton 88 71 91 68 / 10 10 10 10 McKinney 86 72 88 71 / 10 10 10 10 Dallas 89 73 91 72 / 10 10 10 10 Terrell 87 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 10 Corsicana 88 74 89 73 / 10 10 20 10 Temple 89 72 89 72 / 10 10 20 10 Mineral Wells 92 70 92 67 / 10 10 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$