Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
142 FXUS64 KFWD 030003 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 603 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Several rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected Tuesday night through this weekend. Some severe storms may be possible each day. - The potential for multiple rounds of heavy rainfall will result in an increased threat for flooding heading into the weekend. - Above normal temperatures will continue into next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This afternoon through Tuesday) Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 Quiet weather will prevail through Tuesday before an active weather pattern returns towards the middle of the week. A cold front roughly extends along a line from Eastland to DFW to Honey Grove. The air behind the front is quite a bit cooler, with temperatures currently in the mid 50s to low 60s, whereas temperatures are in the mid to upper 70s just ahead of the front. The front will likely move a bit further south over the next hour or two before retreating back to the north later in the day. The front along with some lingering stratus will result in a rather sharp temperature gradient across North Texas, with highs in the 60s to low 70s expected north of the boundary and mid 70s to low 80s for the rest of the region. Tomorrow, breezy southerly winds will become established by mid to late morning as a cold front moves south through the Plains throughout the day. Wind speeds will be between 10-20 mph with gusts up to 25-30 mph. Warm advection and vertical mixing will allow temperatures to climb into the mid to upper 80s, with morning clouds clearing out during the afternoon. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday night through next Sunday) Issued at 1236 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 The cold front will approach the Red River Tuesday night, but it will be losing some of its momentum as it moves southward towards the forecast area. Isolated showers and perhaps a storm or two may skirt our northern zones ahead of the front Tuesday night prior to the front`s arrival, but this activity is not expected to be severe. The cold front will likely reach the forecast area sometime Wednesday morning but will eventually stall as it moves south and east. Additional isolated to scattered showers and storms will be possible early in the day near and ahead of the front, but this activity is expected to remain below severe limits. This will likely change as we head into the afternoon, as destabilization will result in an increasing threat for scattered severe thunderstorms, especially Wednesday evening. Any storms that develop along and ahead of the stalled front during the afternoon and evening will be capable of producing hail and damaging wind gusts. The tornado threat appears to be low at this time but non-zero. Where the greatest potential for severe weather will materialize will ultimately depend on where the front stalls, so ensure you`re monitoring the forecast for the latest information, especially as we get within range of high-res guidance. Storm chances (including the potential for strong to severe storms) will linger Wednesday night before storms eventually dissipate and/or exit the region. A relative lull in rain/storm chances is expected much of the day Thursday, though we`ll carry some 20-50% PoPs throughout the day as a weak passing shortwave may provide enough ascent for a few sub-severe showers or storms to develop. A dryline across West Texas is expected to become active during the afternoon to our west. Some of this activity will make a run at our western zones during the evening hours, which will be accompanied by a threat for severe weather. It`s uncertain whether any of this activity will reach the forecast area, but it will certainly bear watching as hail and damaging winds will be possible with any of these storms. By Friday, the dryline to our west is expected to move further east, potentially breaching our western border. Additional rounds of showers and thunderstorms are expected to develop both Friday and Saturday near/ahead of the dryline. Severe weather will be possible with each round of storms, though there is low confidence in the location/extent of the severe threat both days. Additionally, the potential for heavy rainfall is expected to increase late this week, especially as we head into the weekend. Expect the flooding threat to increase with each round of storms, especially as we head into the weekend. Our period of active weather looks to continue into early next week, so ensure you keep up with the forecast throughout the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 556 PM CST Mon Mar 2 2026 VFR will prevail this evening with the earlier frontal push now retreating north and south flow returning to all terminals except KAFW where light northeasterly flow lingers early this evening. Winds will generally hold in the 8-12 kt range overnight as the boundary continues to lift north. MVFR stratus is expected to redevelop and spread northward late tonight into Tuesday morning, reaching KACT/KGRK between 08-10Z and the Metroplex terminals around 09-11Z (cigs near 1-2 kft). Ceilings will lift/scatter by late morning to midday (generally 16-18Z) with VFR prevailing thereafter. South winds will increase late Tuesday morning through afternoon, becoming breezy/gusty with sustained speeds around 12-15 kt and gusts to near 25 kt, then easing some by the early evening. Another cold front will approach the Red River Tuesday night bringing another round of isolated to scattered showers into western North Texas. No direct impacts are expected at the TAF sites during this TAF period, though marginal impacts may brush the Bowie cornerpost after 00Z/04. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 63 83 65 79 / 0 0 10 60 Waco 63 85 65 81 / 0 0 0 60 Paris 59 80 63 78 / 0 10 10 50 Denton 58 83 62 79 / 0 0 10 60 McKinney 60 82 64 78 / 0 0 10 60 Dallas 63 84 67 81 / 0 0 10 60 Terrell 61 83 65 80 / 0 10 10 50 Corsicana 64 85 66 83 / 0 10 0 50 Temple 61 85 65 82 / 0 0 10 50 Mineral Wells 58 85 62 80 / 0 0 10 60 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Barnes LONG TERM....Barnes AVIATION...12