351
FXUS64 KFWD 241929
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
229 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

...New Long Term...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonably hot and humid conditions expected this weekend.

- There will be low storm chances (less than 20%) along the Red
  River tonight.

- More widespread showers and thunderstorms are expected along and
  ahead of a cold front late Sunday night into Memorial Day. A few
  storms could be strong to severe with primarily a damaging wind
  and hail threat. Locally heavy rainfall will increase the
  flooding threat.

- Below-normal temperatures are then expected through most of
  next week with continued low rain chances.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025/
/Through Sunday Evening/

This morning`s cluster of storms that brushed against northeastern
Lamar County has shifted to the east. Partly sunny skies and dry
weather will prevail through the remainder of the day beneath mid
and upper ridging. Thunderstorms will initiate along a frontal
boundary over north-central Oklahoma and near a dryline in West
Texas later this afternoon into this evening. Both storm complexes
will make a run for our far northern, Red River counties after
10PM tonight, but should be entering their dissipating stage as
they approach our forecast area. Nonetheless, we will carry slight
chance PoPs for a few hours tonight to account for the odd chance
these weakening storms sustain into our northwestern and Red
River zones.

Warm and moist south flow will strengthen during the day Sunday
as a surface trough extending from eastern New Mexico into central
Oklahoma deepens ahead of our next upper-level trough. Another
hot and humid day is expected Sunday with afternoon highs in the
low to mid 90s and heat indices peaking near 100 degrees. Robust
thunderstorm development is likely along the aforementioned
frontal zone late Sunday afternoon, but much of this activity
should remain north of the Red River through Sunday evening. The
primary chance for precipitation during the day Sunday will be
across East Texas and parts of the Brazos Valley where a few
isolated showers and sub-severe thunderstorms may develop on the
nose of stronger theta-E advection. More widespread thunderstorms
with associated severe weather potential will arrive late Sunday
night into Monday as the front sags south toward North Texas.

Langfeld

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
Update:

Confidence is increasing in the evolution of the Sunday night
into Memorial Day storm potential over North and Central Texas.
Clusters of storms along a cold front over Central Oklahoma and
near the triple point over the Texas Panhandle should grow into a
complex of storms and race southeastward through the overnight.
Areas along and north of I-20 will see their greatest storm
chances during the early morning hours of Monday. Additional
scattered thunderstorms and potentially another complex of strong
to severe storms will likely develop along/south of I-20 Monday
afternoon and evening as the upper trough swings overhead. The
precise location of this afternoon/evening round will be largely
dependent upon the placement of the outflow boundary from the
morning storms. Damaging winds and locally heavy rainfall will be
the primary hazards, but if storms are able to remain more
discrete late Monday, they could offer an increased threat for
isolated large hail and even a couple tornadoes. See the previous
discussion for more details beyond Monday night.

Langfeld

Previous Discussion:
/Monday Onward/

The extended portion of the forecast will remain active as
troughing continues across the southwestern CONUS. This trough
will send shortwaves to the east, each producing increased rain
chances across our area.

A shortwave will likely be traversing North and Central Texas on
Memorial Day, increasing rain chances across the entire region.
The highest rain chances (60-80%) will largely be across North
Texas. Central Texas rain chance will range between 30%-50%.
Although there will be a risk for a few strong to severe storms,
the main threat on Monday will be the potential for flooding given
the expected heavy rain. Rainfall averages are expected to range
between 1-3", however, there is a 10% chances a few locations
north of I-20 and east of I-35 pick up close to 5" of rain. The
higher totals will be dependent on whether storms impact a small
area multiple times as thunderstorm training is possible.

A stalled west-east oriented boundary will continue to provide a
focus for thunderstorm activity through the rest of the week.
Each storm cluster will is likely to leave behind remnant
boundaries, affecting the next day`s storm chances and location.

A slight southward migration of the boundary will place
North/Central Texas under northeasterly winds Tuesday onward. This
will help keep temperatures in the lower to mid 80s the rest of
the week with nighttime temperatures in the lower to mid 60s.

Hernandez

&&

.AVIATION... /Issued 1244 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025/
/18Z TAFs/

MVFR cigs have lifted and scattered to VFR status this afternoon
with VFR prevailing through the remainder of the evening.
Another round of MVFR stratus will sprawl over much of North and
Central Texas for a few hours Sunday morning, generally between
10Z-16Z. Any isolated storms weakening on their approach to North
Texas later tonight should remain well north of the TAF sites.
Otherwise, expect breezy south flow at ~10-15 kts gusting to 25
kts through the TAF period.

Langfeld

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected at this time.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    76  93  72  84  67 /   0  10  60  90  70
Waco                75  93  73  89  68 /   0  10  30  70  60
Paris               72  89  68  80  66 /  10  10  70  90  80
Denton              73  92  67  83  63 /   5  10  70  80  70
McKinney            75  92  70  83  66 /   5  10  70  90  70
Dallas              75  94  72  83  68 /   0  10  60  90  70
Terrell             73  91  71  84  67 /   0  10  60  90  70
Corsicana           76  92  75  89  70 /   0  20  40  80  70
Temple              75  94  74  92  69 /   0  10  20  60  60
Mineral Wells       73  94  69  86  64 /   5  10  60  80  50

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$