Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
946 FXUS64 KFWD 301016 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 516 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Hot temperatures between 97 to 104 with little to no rain will continue this week. - Fire threat will remain elevated this week due to hot temperatures, low humidity and worsening drought conditions. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday night) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Upper level ridge centered over the Southern Plains early this morning per 00Z 500mb analysis will shift slightly eastward today per latest global models. Ridge has been consistently stronger than model guidance forecasts the past several days, which likely explains why NBM high temperatures continue to be too cool. Therefore have once again gone above guidance for highs today, with another hot and dry day on tap in the 99 to 104 range. Like yesterday, cannot rule out an isolated shower or two in our southeast counties where moisture will be higher, but potential is far too low for a mentionable pop. H5 ridge will shift further eastward into the Mid-Mississippi Valley on Monday with 500mb heights falling slightly over North and Central Texas. Highs should therefore be near or slightly lower than today, but still hot with most locations in the 100s and no rain. && .LONG TERM... (Monday through Saturday) Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 00Z models continue to show a weak tropical wave moving westward into southern Texas from Tuesday into Wednesday as the upper ridge slides eastward into the Tennessee and Ohio Valleys. This should allow for more activity on the seabreeze in southeast Texas both days with a few showers and storms making it into our southeast Central Texas counties in the afternoons, and will show low pops in that area for Tuesday and Wednesday. Rest of our forecast area will remain dry and hot, albeit with highs just a tad lower as the center of the upper ridge moves further away. From Thursday into next weekend, GFS/ECMWF indicate the upper ridge will gradually strengthen and slowly move back westward into the Central and Southern Plains, leading to a slight upward trend in our temperatures through the extended period. With the upper ridge forecast to be centered a bit further north of North and Central Texas than recent weeks, this should also allow for a continued low chance of a shower or storm each afternoon across our southeast counties. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 514 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period with just a few low clouds around 9k ft. Expect south winds around 10kts with a few higher gusts this afternoon. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1215 AM CDT Sun Aug 30 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 102 80 101 80 / 0 0 0 0 Waco 101 76 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Paris 101 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Denton 102 78 102 77 / 0 0 0 0 McKinney 101 77 100 77 / 0 0 0 0 Dallas 103 81 103 81 / 0 0 0 0 Terrell 102 76 101 76 / 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 100 75 100 76 / 0 0 0 0 Temple 100 75 100 75 / 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 102 74 102 73 / 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Shamburger LONG TERM....Shamburger AVIATION...Shamburger