Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
911 FXUS64 KFWD 251107 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 607 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Very hot temperatures will continue this afternoon. An Extreme Heat Warning or Heat Advisory is in effect for all of North and Central Texas today. - An elevated fire threat will continue today across Western North and Central Texas. - Low (10-25%) storm chances will return Wednesday afternoon, bringing the potential for gusty winds. && .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 06Z RAP analysis places a stationary front stretching across southern Oklahoma toward the ArkLaTex, along which convection has developed overnight. Showers may continue to develop and move south into Northeast TX through this morning, but due to the very dry low- level environment, most of this activity will remain virga. Gusty, erratic winds are possible beneath these virga regardless of whether or not rain makes it to the surface. Otherwise, expect another very hot day today across North and Central TX. While the mid-level ridge will begin creeping westward today, its influence will only wane slightly, and winds will still have a downslope component, contributing to compressional warming. Thus, we expect all but the easternmost portions of North and Central TX to exceed 105 degrees this afternoon. These areas remain in an Extreme Heat Warning, while our eastern counties are in a Heat Advisory. Regardless of the heat headlines in your local area, you need to take this heat seriously by staying hydrated, taking breaks during strenuous activity, and limiting time outdoors during the hottest part of the day. With exceptionally dry fuels, very hot weather, and minimum RH values expected to once again drop to 15-25% across North and Central TX, we will continue to have an elevated fire threat today. Despite light to breezy winds (10-15 mph), large fires spread in Palo Pinto and Hamilton/Coryell Counties yesterday. We have issued another Grass Fire Danger Statement for today based on these conditions. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday through Monday) Issued at 226 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 By Wednesday, the mid-level ridge will have retreated enough to allow a shortwave riding its periphery to approach North and Central TX. This shortwave will help push the weak front in Oklahoma southward through our area, bringing low (10-25%) storm chances Wednesday afternoon into Thursday morning and lowering high temps back to the upper 90s Thursday and Friday. Storms that form near the front Wednesday afternoon may bring lightning and brief strong winds due to steep low-level lapse rates. Unfortunately, model guidance has indicated that the ridge will return eastward into the weekend, pushing temperatures back up and rain chances down. The CPC`s 6-10 and 8-14 Day outlooks are similarly unforgiving, indicating hotter-than-normal conditions will likely continue into the first week of September. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 607 AM CDT Tue Aug 25 2026 VFR conditions will prevail through the period. As of 11Z this morning, showers and thunderstorms were ongoing in Northeast TX, with spotty virga/shower development across Texoma. Storms in the Bonham corner post are moving SSE and are unlikely to impact the D10; however, isolated showers should reach the vicinity of Metroplex sites through 15Z. There is low potential for locally gusty, variable winds with this activity given the dry sub-cloud layer. A weak front looks poised to move through North and Central Texas on Wednesday, and a shift to light (<10KT) northwesterly winds will likely arrive at the Metroplex in the mid-morning hours; we included this shift in the extended period of the DFW 12Z TAF. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Issued at 1200 PM CDT Sun Aug 23 2026 Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 105 82 102 80 / 10 0 20 10 Waco 103 79 103 78 / 0 0 10 20 Paris 102 77 100 75 / 10 10 10 20 Denton 105 80 102 76 / 10 0 20 10 McKinney 104 80 101 77 / 10 0 20 10 Dallas 105 83 104 81 / 10 0 20 10 Terrell 104 78 103 77 / 10 0 10 20 Corsicana 103 78 103 78 / 10 0 10 20 Temple 103 77 103 77 / 0 0 10 20 Mineral Wells 108 77 103 73 / 0 0 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Extreme Heat Warning until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>094- 100>105-115>121-129>134-141>146-156-157-159. Heat Advisory until 9 PM CDT this evening for TXZ095-106-107-122- 123-135-147-148-158-160>162-174-175. && $$ SHORT TERM...Fenske LONG TERM....Fenske AVIATION...Fenske/Hernandez