Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
895 FXUS64 KFWD 200021 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 721 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Dangerously hot and humid conditions will continue into tomorrow. A Heat Advisory remains in effect for parts of the area now through 7 PM tomorrow evening as a result. - Thunderstorm chances will steadily tick upward (30-60%) through the middle of the week as a frontal boundary approaches the region. /16/ && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 139 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ /Through Wednesday Night/ We`re coming towards the end of the hottest days of the year so far across North Texas as a synoptic scale transition beginning in the next 36-48 hours gives us a reprieve from triple-digit temperatures. That said, we have a few more days of heat to deal with as ridging continues retreating into the Intermountain West. Being positioned at the eastern periphery of this ridge will lend us a convective environment that is still conducive for thunderstorms with short range guidance giving a greater than 40 percent chance of precipitation amounts greater than 0.01 inch for most areas on Wednesday. Despite the potential for isolated thunderstorms (with typical sub-severe summertime hazards, lightning, downdraft winds etc.), dew points in the 70s combined with temperature maximums in the upper 90s will maintain hazardous heat through the day Wednesday. Cooler and conditions will begin to arrive through the end of the week as northerly winds pick up in speed behind the weak frontal boundary. /16/ && .LONG TERM... /Issued 139 PM CDT Tue Aug 19 2025/ /Through next Tuesday Night/ Even cooler conditions could arrive across North Texas by next week. This is due to a stronger frontal boundary anticipated by long-range guidance to bring some temperature maximums below 90 degrees by next Tuesday. Until then, drier air will slowly continue to filter in, eventually pushing the 70-degree isodrosotherm further into Southeast Texas while diurnally-driven rain chances remain at their lowest in the forecast period (below 20 percent). Temperatures will stay near normal this weekend, with upper 90s being more of an exception instead of as widespread as it has been this month. By the middle of next week, flow aloft will take on a northwesterly component as ridging out west continues to weaken. /16/ && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. An isolated SHRA/TSRA is possible over the next hour near DFW/AFW but the chance is too low to include in TAF. A better chance for SHRA/TSRA will exist on Wednesday afternoon at all airports and have mentioned VCTS accordingly. Light east to southeast winds this evening will veer to northerly on Wednesday but remain less than 10 knots. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 97 77 95 77 / 20 40 30 20 10 Waco 77 96 75 94 75 / 10 50 40 40 20 Paris 74 96 73 94 72 / 30 30 30 20 5 Denton 77 98 74 97 73 / 20 30 20 20 10 McKinney 76 97 74 95 73 / 20 30 20 20 10 Dallas 80 99 78 97 77 / 20 40 30 20 10 Terrell 76 97 74 94 73 / 20 40 30 30 10 Corsicana 78 97 75 95 75 / 10 50 40 40 20 Temple 75 97 73 94 72 / 10 50 40 40 30 Mineral Wells 75 97 73 96 72 / 20 40 30 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT Wednesday for TXZ091>095-102>107- 118>123-133>135-144>148-158>162-174-175. && $$