Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
620 FXUS64 KFWD 080012 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 712 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and thunderstorms return Friday through Sunday as our next storm system and cold front arrive. - Warmer and mostly rain-free weather is forecast during the first half of next week. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 The post-frontal surface high is currently traipsing across the Southern Plains, and will continue to move south the rest of this afternoon and evening. This will eventually culminate in a return to south-southeasterly winds across North and Central Texas. Temperatures will remain mild today, with highs generally staying in the low to mid 70s. Upper and mid level cloud cover will continue to stream SW to NE mainly across our Central and East Texas counties, with slightly less dense cloud cover expected in North Texas. Scattered showers and storms originating to our southwest this morning are now beginning to breach Mills/Lampasas counties, and will likely continue to slowly spread northeast this afternoon. However, there is uncertainty on how far into Central Texas this activity will make it as it is moving into a drier environment. Most precipitation echoes on radar this afternoon outside of the activity in our far southwest is the result of the dense spread of mid/upper-level clouds. With these light echoes, most if not all of this precipitation will evaporate before reaching the ground due to the deep layer of drier air underneath the cloud deck. Will advertise a low 10% chance of sprinkles this afternoon in a good portion of our Central Texas counties as I would not be surprised to see one or two raindrops on the sidewalks. Well to our west, an upper low is currently churning over the Desert Southwest/Northern Mexico border, and will continue to move east through the end of this week. Tomorrow, expect more humid conditions as moisture advection really begins to ramp up out ahead of this incoming upper low. With lift from the shortwave beginning to spread across North and Central Texas over the day Friday, expect an uptick in elevated showers and storms over the course of the day, particularly in Central Texas where the most abundant moisture will be located. While severe weather overall seems unlikely during the afternoon and evening, any more of the robust storms that develop could produce small hail given the 7-7.5 degC/km lapse rates. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 225 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 The upper low will swing across the State of Texas late Friday into Saturday. Development is expected in Central Texas, in addition to southward-moving storms originating off of the cold front up in Oklahoma overnight into Saturday. While surface-based storms are unlikely, elevated storms will have access to plenty of MUCAPE, steep lapse rates, and modest shear to allow for the potential for isolated strong to marginally severe storms with a hail threat later Friday into Saturday. Additional shortwave disturbances will round the base of the parent longwave trough, keeping rain chances going through the rest of the weekend. One such disturbance will shunt a cold front and its accompanying showers/storms south during the day Sunday. Unlike the cold front earlier this week, the temperature drop behind Sunday`s front will not be much to "write home" about, with Monday highs coming in between the mid 70s to mid 80s. Behind the frontal passage, upper-level ridging will build into the region in the wake of the exiting shortwave and parent trough, promoting a warming trend with little to no rain chances the first half of this next week. Another front may be shunted southward through the Plains later next week, bringing additional chances for rain, but this is uncertain and more details will be gleaned in the coming days. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM CDT Thu May 7 2026 A thick veil of high clouds continue to stream across the region ahead of an upper level trough over northwest Mexico. This trough will eventually bring some low storm chances to the region. Until then...light southerly winds will prevail under a VFR ceiling. We`ll be watching for some low storm chances during the early morning hours near the major airports as weak warm advection and large scale forcing may be sufficient to kick off a few scattered storms. Right now, we don`t have a mention in the TAF, but this may be added later this evening. Otherwise, ceilings will lower through the overnight hours but should generally remain VFR across North Texas. Waco will have some slightly better chances for TS on Friday along with intermittent MVFR cigs. Dunn && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 61 81 66 86 / 10 20 20 10 Waco 59 80 66 84 / 10 20 30 20 Paris 55 79 63 82 / 0 10 20 10 Denton 57 80 63 85 / 0 10 30 0 McKinney 57 79 63 84 / 10 10 20 10 Dallas 62 82 66 86 / 10 20 20 10 Terrell 58 80 65 83 / 10 20 30 10 Corsicana 60 79 66 85 / 10 30 30 20 Temple 60 79 66 85 / 10 20 30 20 Mineral Wells 57 82 63 86 / 0 10 20 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Prater LONG TERM....Prater AVIATION...Dunn