Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
603 FXUS64 KFWD 041044 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 544 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will continue today, especially along and west of I-35. A few storms will contain gusty winds, lightning, and brief heavy rain, but severe storms are not anticipated. - Most showers and storms will dissipate by early Friday evening, with dry conditions anticipated for most evening outdoor activities. - Low rain chances will continue over the weekend, but dry weather and hotter temperatures are expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 148 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025/ /Today through Tonight/ Radar early this morning shows light to moderate rain continues across our western and southern counties. This activity is occurring in association with a weak upper level trough stretching from north to south over the Big Country into Central Texas. As this trough continues slowly eastward today, very high tropospheric moisture with PWATS up to 2.4 inches along with deep southerly winds and broad, weak lift aloft will continue to promote additional shower and storm development this morning into the afternoon - especially across the western half of the cwa. Given the near moist-adiabatic environment with minimal CAPE/shear, no severe storms are anticipated today. However, given the high PWATs some heavy rain and localized flooding are possible. The widespread precipitation and clouds will keep temperatures well below normal for this time of the year, with highs only in the upper 70s and 80s this afternoon. CAMs indicate most showers and storms will dissipate by sunset with just isolated precip across North and Central Texas overnight, so the vast majority of evening firework shows look to have dry conditions. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 148 AM CDT Fri Jul 4 2025/ /Saturday through Thursday/ The weak upper trough will continue slowly eastward across North and Central Texas through the weekend while also weakening as a strong H5 ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. This pattern evolution will bring continued rain chances to the cwa from Saturday through Monday, albeit much lower than yesterday and today with far less coverage anticipated. Once again, no severe storms are expected due to minimal CAPE/shear - and with PWATs on a gradual decline each day, the threat for heavy rain will also be very low. By next week, heights will rise considerably aloft as the upper level pattern transitions to a double-barrel H5 ridge across the southern CONUS, with one centered over the Southwest and another along the Central Gulf Coast. However, North and Central Texas will remain within a weak inverted upper trough in between these two ridge centers. Therefore we will see temperatures heat up through the week with mid/upper 90s and possibly some low 100s for most of the cwa by late week. Heat index values will also be on the rise with widespread values near or over 105 possible from Wednesday onward, and heat advisories may be necessary for parts of the area. Although no pops are included in the forecast next week, 00Z GFS/ECMWF indicate some isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out each day due to the continued inverted troughing aloft over the state. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ MVFR cigs have spread across D10 airports early this morning with tempo IFR at GKY, while ACT is seeing IFR/LIFR cigs. All of these low cigs will continue through 15Z with improvement to VFR expected at D10 airports and MVFR cigs at ACT thereafter. Latest thinking based on CAMs such as the HRRR is majority of SHRA/TSRA will stay south of Metroplex airports today and will just mention VCSH through 03Z, while numerous -SHRA impact ACT through the day. South to southeast winds up to 15 knots will continue at all airports through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected through tonight. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 85 75 91 75 94 / 50 10 10 10 20 Waco 85 74 89 72 92 / 50 20 20 5 10 Paris 87 72 92 73 93 / 30 5 5 5 10 Denton 86 73 90 73 92 / 50 20 10 10 20 McKinney 86 74 91 74 93 / 40 10 5 5 20 Dallas 87 74 93 76 94 / 40 10 10 5 20 Terrell 87 73 92 73 94 / 30 10 5 5 10 Corsicana 89 74 93 74 94 / 30 10 5 5 10 Temple 85 72 89 71 93 / 50 20 20 10 10 Mineral Wells 83 73 88 72 91 / 70 30 30 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$