Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
712 FXUS64 KFWD 221057 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 557 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated to scattered showers and storms are expected through this afternoon, with the highest rain chances across Central Texas. - This weekend will be seasonably hot and generally rain-free. - A cold front will arrive early next week, bringing below normal temperatures and daily rain chances through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ /Through Saturday Afternoon/ Though subsidence generally prevails aloft, weak ascent along the eastern flank of the Four Corners upper ridge and the still moderately moist boundary layer over North and Central Texas will support another round of isolated to scattered convection this afternoon. Compared to recent days, coverage should be lower with the better lift and moisture focused primarily across the Brazos Valley into Southeast Texas. Isolated storms may even develop as far north as the Metroplex along residual boundaries during the peak heat of the day before diminishing in the evening. The primary hazards will again be lightning, brief heavy downpours, and gusty outflows from pulse-type cells. Temperatures will be seasonably warm today but thankfully several degrees lower than earlier this week amid light northeasterly flow and slightly drier air in the lower levels. Highs will be in the low to mid 90s with peak heat index values generally near or below 100 degrees. One last diurnal push of convection is possible across our southernmost row of counties (Lampasas to Leon Co.) on Saturday, where mesoscale boundaries and differential heating linger, while subsidence strengthens farther north. Any activity should wane toward the evening. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 146 AM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025/ /Saturday Night through next Thursday/ The main focus of the extended period continues to be the potential for a stronger backdoor cold front early next week as a northern stream trough digs across the eastern CONUS and flattens the western ridge. There is still meaningful uncertainty regarding how far southwest the cooler air penetrates. If the boundary stalls over North and Central Texas, repeated northwest flow disturbances could send convective clusters into the area leading to higher rain coverage through the week. If the front hangs up to our northeast, we would still carry daily rain chances, but amounts and areal coverage would be lower. Currently, the axis of heavier rain is draped across Oklahoma with a broad but lighter footprint south of the Red River with average totals around 0.25-0.75" through Thursday. Temperatures will depend on the timing and strength of the front as well as cloud cover and the effects of precipitation. Ensemble guidance shows a notable spread in highs by Wednesday and especially Thursday, including an almost 10 degree 25th to 75th percentile range across North Texas (the difference between highs in the 80s and highs in the 90s). The overall pattern still favors a cooler and wetter start to next week with below-normal temperatures most likely by Tuesday. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ VFR prevails with light and variable winds settling out of the northeast at around 6-8 kts as daytime mixing occurs (~15Z) then becoming variable again this evening. Convection allowing models continue to show the potential for isolated to scattered storms this afternoon, with the highest coverage expected southeast of the TAF sites. For D10, a few weak showers have begun developing along the residual outflow boundaries that drifted across the Metroplex yesterday evening. Similar to what we saw Thursday, mid/upper- level dry air may cause convective development to struggle again this afternoon, keeping the coverage of SHRA/TSRA fairly isolated. Given the low confidence in direct terminal impacts will only introduce a brief mention of VCSH this morning. The main aviation impact will be erratic wind shifts generated by nearby activity. For Waco, though coverage will likely be a little higher across Central Texas, we are not confident enough to introduce VCTS with this update. 12 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 93 76 96 76 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 Waco 92 72 93 72 95 / 20 5 10 5 5 Paris 93 71 95 71 95 / 0 0 0 0 0 Denton 94 72 97 72 97 / 10 0 0 0 0 McKinney 93 72 96 72 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 Dallas 94 76 97 77 98 / 10 0 0 0 0 Terrell 93 71 95 71 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 Corsicana 94 73 95 73 96 / 10 0 5 0 0 Temple 91 71 94 70 96 / 30 5 20 5 5 Mineral Wells 93 70 96 69 96 / 10 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$