Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
186 FXUS64 KFWD 301827 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 127 PM CDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather will continue this week, with triple- digit highs possible today and Thursday. - The arrival of a weak cold front will result in thunderstorm chances from Thursday afternoon through Sunday. Localized strong to severe downburst winds are possible during this time period. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Through Thursday Night/ We`re still on track to see the hottest temperatures of the summer so far for most locations. As of 1 pm, many areas in North Texas are seeing temperatures already in the upper 90s. Widespread highs in the 100-103 range are expected this afternoon with heat indices within the advisory region around 105-107. Slightly lower humidity over our region is keeping us from reaching extreme heat conditions, very different from other areas across the southeast US where the "feels like" temperatures are reaching 110-115. No other impacts are expected for us the rest of the day with some isolated showers/storms possible across East Texas (mainly outside of our area). Some of that activity may sneak into our eastern zones, but coverage should remain less than 10%. The strong upper level ridge will continue to keep us rain-free through most of the day tomorrow before a cold front approaches from the north. As expected with these weaker fronts, there is some disagreement between guidance on when exactly the front reaches the Red River tomorrow. Some CAMs have it crossing the border into our North Texas counties in the afternoon and others later in the evening. This will definitely impact the high temperatures and storm chances for our area. We decided to hold off on extending the Heat Advisory with this package and let the evening/overnight shift to take a look at the latest models and hopefully have guidance on the placement of the front tomorrow afternoon. We know for sure that areas south of the boundary will see hot temperatures, likely in the triple digits (100-103). Additionally, we will have to continue to monitor the potential for isolated storms across portions of North Texas late afternoon and/or evening. While the overall organized severe risk remains low due to weak shear, we can`t rule out the potential for brief strong to severe wind gusts through early Thursday evening. Sanchez && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Friday through next Wednesday/ The pattern will remain fairly active through the weekend as the upper ridge shifts westward into northern Mexico and northwest flow dominates the southern Plains. Multiple rounds of scattered showers/storms are expected Friday and Saturday as the surface boundary becomes nearly stationary over our region. The highest moisture will reside across our eastern and southern counties which will result in the best coverage of rain and storms. Medium/long range guidance also depict a couple of storm complexes developing across Oklahoma Saturday night and again Sunday night which may try to enter some of our northwestern counties Sunday and Monday. Trends will be monitored over the next few days and forecast will be adjusted, but at least we know temperatures will remain near-average through early next week. Sanchez && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ No significant weather expected through Thursday afternoon with VFR and light winds generally from the south/southwest. A few passing high clouds and daytime cumulus will prevail through the period. A weak cold front is expected to approach from the north Thursday afternoon, shifting the winds to the north after 00Z Friday. Speeds will remain around 5-10 kts outside of any convection. A few isolated storms may develop along the Red River in the afternoon, but at this time we expect them to stay north of the North Texas sites. Sanchez && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 80 103 79 96 76 / 0 10 10 20 20 Waco 75 101 77 99 76 / 0 0 5 20 30 Paris 78 101 75 92 72 / 10 20 10 30 30 Denton 75 104 76 95 73 / 0 20 20 20 20 McKinney 77 103 76 94 73 / 0 10 10 20 20 Dallas 80 103 79 98 76 / 0 10 10 20 20 Terrell 76 102 76 96 74 / 0 10 5 20 30 Corsicana 77 103 78 100 76 / 0 5 5 20 30 Temple 73 101 75 99 75 / 0 0 5 20 30 Mineral Wells 72 105 75 97 72 / 0 10 10 20 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Heat Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for TXZ091>095-100>107- 115>123-134-135-146-148. && $$