Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
748 FXUS64 KFWD 121020 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 520 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and storms will develop across the region later this morning and will linger through the weekend and into early next week. The best chances will be near and north of the Highway 380 corridor. Some storms could produce gusty winds as well as heavy rain and localized flooding. - Drier and hotter weather is expected Tuesday through the end of the week with heat index readings up to 105 possible. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Several members of the HREF ensemble show light showers developing near or west of the I-35 corridor, particularly in the vicinity of the Metroplex, by mid to late morning, likely associated with convergence at the nose of the LLJ. Though large scale ascent is modest, forecast soundings do show a marginally favorable environment with high low-level moisture and weak capping. Introduced some low (~15%) PoPs for this morning to reflect this potential. Otherwise, rain chances will begin increasing more robustly across North Texas after 15Z and continuing through the afternoon as discussed in detail below. 12 Previous Discussion: /Through Sunday Night/ The stout mid-level shortwave trough that moved into the Central Plains on Friday will continue progressing southeast through the Plains overnight tonight and through the day Saturday. A trailing surface cold front, currently analyzed across Kansas, will accompany this wave. While the front is expected to to drift across Oklahoma and eventually stall in the vicinity of the Red River, we should also keep a close eye on the ongoing convection ahead of the surface boundary. The late evening radar mosaic shows a mature thunderstorm complex in the Texas Panhandle. As we have seen multiple times this season already, some of the CAMs have been persistently showing this convection quickly decaying over the next few hours with the expectation that increasing convective inhibition will continue to limit the intensity. However, it should be noted that a modest increase in the low-level jet (as sampled by recent KFWS and KDYX VWP obs) could actually help sustain this complex longer than expected allowing for multiple outflow boundaries to push into southwest Oklahoma and adjacent parts of western North Texas. These boundaries will likely serve as the primary focus for renewed development later today. Beginning as early as mid-morning and through the afternoon, convection is expected to rapidly develop in two favored areas: (1) along lingering outflow and/or differential heating zones near and north of the I-20 corridor, and (2) across Central Texas in response to an active inland-penetrating sea breeze. The thermodynamic environment will be characterized by moderate instability (MUCAPE values around 1500-2500 J/kg), and weak deep- layer shear. This will support scattered, disorganized convection with the potential for a few stronger (sub-severe) storms capable of producing brief downbursts up to 50 mph in addition to locally heavy rainfall. As the primary shortwave trough lifts toward the Ohio Valley Saturday evening, global and ensemble guidance continue to indicate that a weak upper low will develop somewhere near North Texas late Saturday night or early Sunday morning. This feature, cut off from the main flow and embedded in a weakly diffluent mid- level pattern, will help sustain widespread precipitation chances overnight...despite the loss of surface-based instability...and through Sunday afternoon. ...Flooding Potential... With precipitable water values in the 1.5-2.2" range (100-150% of the normal values for early July) and mid-level winds remaining weak (less than 20 kts), storm motions will be slow and conducive to cell training, especially north of I-20. CAMs (HREF, RRFS) and global guidance (GFS, ECMWF) consistently highlight a corridor of 1-3" of rainfall along the Red River over the next 48 hours, with isolated higher amounts approaching 4+" not out of the question. Though we are not expecting widespread heavy rainfall, localized heavy rainfall amid efficient warm rain processes will likely lead to increasing concerns for flooding this weekend. Urban areas will be particularly vulnerable due to lower infiltration capacity and recent rainfall. As a result, a Flood Watch has been issued from 12 PM Saturday through 7 PM Sunday for most of our counties along and west of I-35, including the DFW Metroplex, in anticipation of localized flash flooding from prolonged or repeated rainfall. 12 && .LONG TERM... /Issued 120 AM CDT Sat Jul 12 2025/ /Next Week/ Convection will likely persist well into Sunday night across much of North Texas and parts of Central Texas, though the gradual eastward drift or the upper level low may lead to a brief relative minimum in rain chances before midnight. The upper low will begin to accelerate northeastward by Monday, allowing subsidence to gradually increase in its wake. That said, some diurnally driven showers and storms may persist, especially across North and East Texas, where ascent and moisture will remain the most favorable. Tuesday through the remainder of the week looks quieter, with building mid-level heights and returning south-southwesterly flow aloft. Temperatures will trend seasonably hot with highs in the low to mid 90s and afternoon heat indices ranging from 98 to 105F. Rain chances will not be zero, but any convection will be isolated and likely confined to areas either along and north of the Red River or in far southeast Texas. 12 && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ A stratocumulus deck across Central Texas will spread north through the Metroplex over the next couple of hours, so will start all forecasts off with MVFR at 12Z. Light warm advection rain showers will be possible through the morning with little impacts expected. Thunderstorm probabilities increase after 21Z this afternoon, and will continue to advertise the onset of VCTS around 13/00Z based on the latest convection-allowing model guidance. Most storms will dissipate 04-06Z tonight, followed by another round of MVFR Sunday morning. Isolated storms will be possible during the overnight hours, though probabilities are too low to include in the forecasts at this time. 30 && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 92 74 89 74 92 / 40 50 50 30 30 Waco 91 74 91 74 92 / 40 30 40 20 20 Paris 91 72 90 73 91 / 50 50 50 30 40 Denton 92 72 88 73 91 / 50 50 60 30 40 McKinney 91 74 88 73 91 / 50 50 60 30 40 Dallas 93 74 91 75 93 / 40 50 50 30 30 Terrell 93 74 91 73 92 / 40 40 50 20 30 Corsicana 93 75 93 75 94 / 40 30 40 20 20 Temple 92 73 91 72 92 / 40 30 40 20 20 Mineral Wells 91 72 88 72 91 / 50 60 60 40 40 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch from 1 PM CDT this afternoon through Sunday evening for TXZ091>094-100>104-115>119-129>132-141>143-156. && $$