Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
973 FXUS64 KFWD 271049 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 549 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Seasonably hot weather will continue into the upcoming workweek, with widespread triple-digit highs Tuesday through Thursday. - Isolated showers and storms are possible east of I-35 and south of I-20 this afternoon, before rain-free weather resumes heading into the week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ /Through Tonight/ We`ll remain positioned on the western periphery of an expanding mid-level ridge axis today, allowing for one final day of isolated afternoon convection. However, this activity will largely be confined to our southeastern zones where sufficient moisture will be located, as the rest of the CWA will have considerably lower PW values compared to yesterday. Convective coverage will be even lower than yesterday, around 10% or less, and any activity that does manage to develop will dissipate quickly this evening. No severe weather is expected, but some gusty winds and brief heavy rain are possible. A canopy of high cloud cover will aid in keeping highs in the low/mid 90s this afternoon, and when combined with slightly lower dewpoints than yesterday, should keep heat index values mostly below 105. While a couple of isolated sites could briefly touch Heat Advisory criteria, these occurrences are not expected to be widespread enough to warrant heat headlines at this time. In addition, a decent southerly breeze of 10-15 mph and daytime gusts over 20 mph will help to offset the seasonable summertime heat. -Stalley && .LONG TERM... /Issued 1229 AM CDT Sun Jul 27 2025/ /Monday Onward/ Westward expansion of the southeast CONUS ridge will allow hot and rain-free weather to resume for the upcoming workweek. Building heights aloft will result in strengthening subsidence and mostly clear skies, along with a steady warming trend Monday through midweek. A stout 598 dam ridge will become centered directly overhead by Wed/Thu, and this should mark the hottest days of the week and likely the hottest temperatures of the season so far. Widespread triple-digit readings can be expected through the midweek period, and despite the more aggressive daytime mixing of surface dewpoints, heat index values should easily be able to reach or exceed Heat Advisory criteria across a majority of the area. As the ridge retrogrades westward late in the workweek, some low rain chances will return to the forecast Friday/Saturday as we escape the influence of this high pressure center. -Stalley && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12z TAFs/ Very patchy MVFR stratus continues to result in intermittent cigs at Waco and the eastern D10 airports, and these conditions will be Tempo`d for the first couple of hours with this TAF issuance. Afterwards, VFR skies with diurnal cumulus and BKN/OVC cirrus will prevail through the rest of the period. Southerly winds of 8-12 kts can be expected both today and tomorrow, with some daytime gusts in the 20-25 kt range. Any isolated shower/storm activity today is expected to stay south and east of the TAF sites. -Stalley && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 96 79 98 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 0 Waco 94 76 95 75 96 / 10 5 0 0 0 Paris 93 75 96 75 98 / 5 5 0 0 0 Denton 97 77 99 76 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 McKinney 95 77 98 75 100 / 5 0 0 0 0 Dallas 97 79 99 78 100 / 5 0 0 0 0 Terrell 94 75 97 74 99 / 5 5 0 0 0 Corsicana 95 77 97 76 100 / 10 5 0 0 0 Temple 94 74 95 73 97 / 10 5 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 98 75 99 73 101 / 5 0 0 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$