Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
003 FXUS64 KFWD 232313 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 613 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... - Daily low storm chances can be expected through the weekend across parts of North and Central Texas. Most locations will stay dry! A couple severe thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon and evening through at least Sunday. && .SHORT TERM... (This evening through Friday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Zonal flow in the mid and upper levels is now in place across North and Central Texas with a series of shortwaves lined up from Texas westward to the Pacific Ocean. These compact shortwaves will be the impetus for thunderstorm activity throughout the weekend. Our first opportunity to see thunderstorm activity will be late this afternoon and overnight north and northwest of the Dallas/Fort Worth Metroplex. This area will remain highly unstable through the afternoon as the dryline continues to sharpen just to our northwest. If a thunderstorm develops, it would likely be near the Wichita Falls area with initial storm motion to the northeast. However, as the storm matures, storm motion would likely become easterly to southeasterly which would place our Red River counties in the severe thunderstorm threat area. Again, this afternoon`s severe weather potential hinges on there being a storm or two that move east into our region. Overnight, a thunderstorm complex is expected to shift south out of Kansas and into Oklahoma with the potential for westward back building along the leading edge of the MCS. Given favorable instability and moisture in place, it`s not outside of the realm of possibilities that our northeastern counties experience a few storms close to sunrise Friday. This activity is expected to be on a weakening trend as it approaches North Texas, however, gusty winds cannot be ruled out. Late tomorrow morning and into the afternoon, a surface low is expected to develop across Oklahoma and slide south towards North Texas. This feature will create two areas that will need to be monitored tomorrow afternoon and into the evening. The greatest confidence in thunderstorm activity will be across our East Texas counties, where a psuedo-cold front is expected to stall. Instability of nearly 3000 J/Kg is expected with about 40 kts of effective shear. Large hail and damaging winds will be the primary hazards, however, a tornado cannot be ruled out. A secondary area of thunderstorm activity is being depicted by the latest guidance across Central Texas. This is likely attributed to a subtle shortwave expected to emerge out of northern Mexico and move east during the afternoon. With the dryline draped from northeast to southwest across Central Texas, enough vertical forcing may be in place for a few strong to severe storms. The strength of the cap tomorrow afternoon will dictate whether storms develop or not. Large hail and damaging winds would be the main threats. Storm chances will come to an end tomorrow night with the loss of daytime heating and a departing mid-level supporting system. Overnight temperatures both tonight and tomorrow will be in the 60s and 70s across the region with highs in the 80s to 90s. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through next Wednesday) Issued at 213 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 By Saturday, our zonal flow will begin to take more of a southwesterly direction as troughing amplifies across the western US. The psudo-cold front mentioned above will quickly migrate northward, leaving all of North and Central Texas with southerly low-level winds. The dryline will once again sharpen in the afternoon, coexisting with very high instability and 30-40 kts of deep layer shear. Although the main forcing for ascent is expected to bypass our region to the north, temperatures in the upper 80s to mid 90s may be sufficient to reach convective temperature and generate a few severe thunderstorms. All convective hazards will be possible. By early Sunday, surface cyclogenesis across Oklahoma will help push a cold front south into our region. High instability will precede the approaching cold front which could help fire off showers and thunderstorms. Upper-level diffluence, in conjunction with the passing shortwave, will once again lead to a return of strong to severe thunderstorms. The highest thunderstorm potential will remain along and north of I-20 given the highest forcing will for ascent will remain across Oklahoma. The latest soundings for areas south of I-20 depict a stronger capping inversion in place which should prevent thunderstorm development. Going into next week, North and Central Texas will remain in an unsettled weather pattern as we remain wedged between a trough in the western CONUS and a ridge across northern Mexico. An influx of low-level moisture, coupled with daily transient shortwaves, will lead to low rain chances each afternoon through Thursday. Thermodynamic profiles suggest there may be a continued strong to severe weather threat, however, confidence in exact hazards, timing and location remains low. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 608 PM CDT Thu Apr 23 2026 Will need to keep an eye on dryline convection which may impact the UKW corner post later this evening, but direct thunderstorm impacts are not expected at any of the TAF locations. The main impacts will be a return of MVFR ceilings tonight, which should arrive around 05Z at KACT and 07Z in the DFW Metroplex. Conditions will improve to VFR around midday Friday. Gusty south winds will continue tonight into Friday, eventually decreasing to 5-10 kt Friday evening. && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 88 68 89 / 10 10 10 10 Waco 70 88 69 88 / 10 10 10 10 Paris 68 83 63 83 / 30 40 40 10 Denton 68 88 63 89 / 10 10 10 10 McKinney 69 86 65 87 / 10 10 20 10 Dallas 70 90 68 90 / 10 10 20 10 Terrell 69 86 66 87 / 10 10 30 10 Corsicana 71 87 70 89 / 10 10 20 10 Temple 70 87 69 89 / 10 20 20 10 Mineral Wells 67 90 63 91 / 10 0 10 10 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hernandez LONG TERM....Hernandez AVIATION...30