317
FXUS64 KFWD 242335
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
535 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

...New Short Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Two cold fronts this week will deliver multiple shots of cooler
  air into North Texas. The first front will arrive Monday
  morning, bringing temperatures back closer to seasonal normals.

- Another cold front arrives Wednesday night bringing much cooler
  temperatures for Thanksgiving Day.

- North Texas`s first widespread freeze is becoming more likely
  Thursday night into Friday morning.

&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Through Monday Evening/

Breezy conditions will continue tonight ahead of tomorrow
morning`s cold front, though winds will not be as gusty as they
were during the day today. The front, which has recently entered
northern Oklahoma, will push south through the region as a
shortwave trough sweeps across the Plains. The latest timing
brings the front across the Red River between 4 and 6 AM, through
the I-20 corridor 7 to 9 AM, and through Central and East Texas
around midday. A lack of moisture will likely preclude any
measurable precipitation along the front, but a few sprinkles
cannot be ruled out.

Much cooler air will spread south behind the front. High
temperatures will peak in the 60s across North Texas Monday
morning, and in the lower 70s across Central Texas immediately
ahead of the front around midday. Temperatures will then fall into
the 50s Monday afternoon, and 40s Monday evening. A narrow
pressure gradient will create breezy conditions, with north winds
of 15 to 25 MPH expected for at least a few hours behind the
front. Winds will drop to 10-15 MPH after sunset as the pressure
gradient relaxes and low level flow begins to decouple.

30

&&

.LONG TERM... /Issued 204 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024/
/Monday Night Onward/

Over Monday night into Tuesday morning, surface high pressure
will quickly build in behind the departing cold front, lowering
wind speeds across the region. Lighter north winds and clearing
skies will aid in dropping overnight temperatures down into the
30s and 40s. Tuesday afternoon will remain mild as highs peak in
the upper 50s to upper 60s, with winds gradually returning to the
south.

We`ll see a marked warming over the morning and afternoon hours
on Wednesday as lee cyclogenesis over the Panhandle results in
breezy veering winds atop North and Central Texas. Afternoon highs
will top out in the 70s and 80s, and will be the last such day in
the remainder of the forecast. Well to our northeast, an upper
level low will move into New England, sending a cold front south.
Upstream, an upper level open shortwave will quickly eject across
the Central Plains, sending the cold front south across North and
Central Texas late Wednesday into Thursday morning. Much cooler
air and breezy north winds are expected behind this front, keeping
the Thanksgiving holiday on the cooler side. Thanksgiving
afternoon highs will range from the low 50s to mid 60s, with north
winds 10-15 mph and gusts up to around 25 mph.

Post-frontal high pressure will glide into the region overnight
into Friday morning, allowing for quiet and tranquil conditions.
Temperatures Friday morning will be able to plummet down into the
30s region-wide, with a good portion of the region having an
increasingly likely chance of observing their first freeze of the
season. Outside of the Metroplex, the majority of North Texas and
a few more rural locales within Central Texas have a 40-70% chance
of observing low temperatures of 32 degrees or less.

Otherwise, mild near to below normal conditions are expected to
persist through the weekend, with morning lows in the 30s to low
40s and highs in the 50s and 60s. Looking at the very end of the
long term period, guidance is hinting at yet another cold front
moving through the region next Saturday into Sunday, but that
will be discussed in the coming days.

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/00Z TAFs/

South winds of 10 to 15 kt will continue tonight ahead of our
next cold front. FROPA in the DFW Metroplex should be around 13Z,
and KACT at 16Z Monday. North winds of 15-20 kt with occasional
higher gusts will accompany the front. Winds will drop to 10-15
kt (still out of the north) Monday evening after 26/00Z. There is
a low chance (10-20%) that an hour or two of MVFR ceilings may
follow immediately behind the front, but the vast majority of
model guidance keeps cigs east of all TAF sites. Will keep an eye
on it, but at this time the plan is to keep the forecast VFR for
the entirety of the TAF period.

30

&&


.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    58  64  41  60  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Waco                61  74  42  65  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Paris               59  66  38  60  46 /   0   5   0   0   0
Denton              53  62  36  60  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
McKinney            56  64  37  60  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
Dallas              59  66  41  62  52 /   0   0   0   0   0
Terrell             60  68  39  62  49 /   0   5   0   0   0
Corsicana           63  73  43  64  53 /   0   5   0   0   0
Temple              59  77  41  66  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
Mineral Wells       51  62  36  63  48 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$