Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
556 FXUS64 KFWD 032321 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 621 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025 ...New Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - High temperatures mainly in the 90s are expected through Friday with little to no chance for rain. - A cold front this weekend will result in widespread rain chances and cooler temperatures that will persist into early next week. && .SHORT TERM... /Issued 113 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025/ /Today through Thursday Afternoon/ High pressure will continue to slide through the region this afternoon, promoting mostly clear skies and dry conditions. Winds will be on the lighter side as the surface high moves in, allowing efficient diurnal heating to push afternoon temperatures into the mid 80s to mid 90s. Winds will shift out of the south overnight in response to the exiting surface ridge. Mostly clear and calm conditions will promote efficient radiational cooling, dropping temperatures into the mid 60s to low 70s by daybreak tomorrow. A couple of CAMs are now showing some isolated to scattered showers along an outflow boundary overnight into early morning. Looking deeper into forecast soundings show that there is a substantial layer of dry air underneath the mid-level cloud layer is (around 600-700 mb). If this outflow were able to generate any elevated shower, most if not all precipitation would evaporate before reaching the ground, resulting in mainly virga. Behind the outflow, another weak frontal boundary will approach and eventually breach North Texas early tomorrow, forcing surface winds to shift more west-to-southwest. The SW wind component will aid in compressional warming during the day, meaning afternoon temperatures will be even warmer than today. Afternoon highs will peak in the mid 90s to around 102, with near and west of I-35 having the highest possibility of approaching/reaching 100 degrees one more time. Prater && .LONG TERM... /Issued 113 PM CDT Wed Sep 3 2025/ /Thursday Evening Onward/ North and Central Texas will remained sandwiched between the mid- level ridge over the Intermountain West and the mid-level trough over the eastern half of the CONUS. Well to our north, a digging shortwave disturbance will round the center of the trough, sending its attendant cold front south through the Plains on Friday. With the front expected to remain north of the Red River through the afternoon, high temperatures will again be able to peak in the mid 90s to around 100. The front is expected to move through North and Central Texas Friday evening into Saturday morning, bringing cooler conditions. There may be some scattered showers and storms along the front as it moves through, but the bulk of our expected rain will come towards the end of the weekend into next week. To our southwest, Hurricane Lorena in the East Pacific is expected to turn NE into the Mexican States of Baja California and Sonora this weekend. The remnants of Lorena will move east-northeast into Texas, helping to dampen the ridge and spread rich tropical moisture overtop the region. Flow in the mid-levels will in turn become more westerly, allowing multiple disturbances to traverse across the Southern Plains. The multiple disturbances, richer moisture, and the presence of the front will allow for increasing rain chances as we head into early next week. Best rain chances continue to be confined to mainly west of I-35, and on Sunday. The rain-cooled air, frontal passage, and cloud cover will aid in keeping temperatures quite cooler as we go into next week, with highs in the 70s and 80s Sunday and Monday. However, ridging will eventually build in over mid-late next week, leading to warming temperatures and drier conditions. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /00Z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail through the TAF period for all North and Central Texas terminals. North winds will gradually shift out of the south-southeast later this evening, generally after 02Z-03Z. Winds will strengthen and shift more west-southwesterly after ~15Z Thursday morning. Then expect sustained winds of 8-12 kts gusting to 20 kts at 210-240 degrees through the remainder of Thursday afternoon. No significant weather impacts are expected. Langfeld && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 70 98 76 96 68 / 0 0 0 5 20 Waco 66 98 74 97 73 / 0 0 0 5 10 Paris 66 93 73 93 66 / 0 0 0 0 30 Denton 67 99 73 97 65 / 5 0 0 5 30 McKinney 67 96 74 95 66 / 0 0 0 5 20 Dallas 71 99 77 98 70 / 0 0 0 5 20 Terrell 67 95 74 94 69 / 0 0 0 0 20 Corsicana 69 96 76 95 73 / 0 0 0 0 10 Temple 66 98 73 96 72 / 0 0 0 0 5 Mineral Wells 66 101 73 98 65 / 0 0 0 10 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$