Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
689 FXUS64 KFWD 101804 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 104 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Near normal temperatures are expected each day this week. - Afternoon heat indices, while hot, will remain below advisory levels through the week. - Low rain chances will exist for much of North Central Texas each afternoon through Thursday. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /This afternoon through Monday/ North Central Texas will be sandwiched between a westward drifting easterly wave over Southeast Texas, and an approaching mid level trough now entering the Central/Northern Plains states. The modest upper level ridge which had been holding sway over our area will diminish in size and intensity over the next 24 hours, yielding decreased subsidence and height thicknesses, and thus slightly cooler daytime temperatures. In fact, today`s highs should be the warmest readings areawide that we experience all week. The proximity of the two mid level troughs to our northwest and southeast will result in a moderate increase in cloud cover Monday, and more importantly, some scattered afternoon/evening shower and thunderstorm activity. Have maintained the low PoPs in the far southeast zones, closer to the easterly wave and likely seabreeze-induced convergence, as well as the far northwest counties, which may be affected by scattered convection ahead of the trough approaching from the northwest. Areal coverage and amounts should remain fairly limited in both regions. Bradshaw && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Tuesday through Sunday/ The aforementioned pattern consisting of the easterly wave to our immediate east and the mid level trough moving into the Plains states will gradually evolve into a single unified area of weakness in the height fields over the Southern Plains from Tuesday through Thursday. This pattern will promote the development of scattered showers and thunderstorms over much of North Central Texas each afternoon through Thursday. Coverage will not be all that impressive, owing to the weak nature of the forcing, but deep layer moisture may be sufficient to produce some isolated brief heavy rainfall in the areas that do experience thunderstorms. Daytime temperatures, owing to the weaker heights, partial cloud cover, and scattered precipitation should remain at or slightly below seasonal norms through Thursday. From Friday onward through Sunday, the north-south oriented weakness in the height field will become largely supplanted by a strengthening ridge nosing westward into Texas from the Southeast states. Disagreements exist between the longer-range models in terms of the evolution of smaller scale waves which may be embedded in the mean flow pattern by next weekend. However, ensemble guidance suggests an overall increase in the height fields by Sunday. This will not only diminish the opportunity for meaningful precipitation; it should also result in an upward tick in daytime temperatures. Most locations should be able to evade the century mark through the period, however. Bradshaw && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18z TAFs/ VFR conditions will prevail across all of North Central Texas through 00z Tuesday, as the region remains under the influence of weak high pressure aloft. A modest southerly surface wind regime will persist this afternoon through Monday, with most speeds averaging 8 to 13 knots during the daytime hours. Bradshaw && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 97 78 96 76 95 / 0 0 5 5 20 Waco 95 75 94 75 94 / 0 0 5 10 20 Paris 96 74 94 73 94 / 0 0 10 5 20 Denton 99 75 97 74 95 / 0 0 10 5 30 McKinney 97 75 96 74 94 / 0 0 5 5 20 Dallas 99 79 98 78 96 / 0 0 5 5 30 Terrell 97 74 95 73 94 / 0 0 10 5 30 Corsicana 97 76 96 76 96 / 0 0 10 5 20 Temple 96 73 95 73 95 / 0 0 10 10 30 Mineral Wells 100 73 98 72 96 / 0 0 10 10 30 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$