Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
665 FXUS64 KFWD 051057 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 557 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025 ...New Aviation, Short Term... .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms are expected across North and Central Texas again today. - Locally heavy rain may lead to instances of flooding in parts of Central Texas, where an additional 1-3 inches is likely. Areas in the Flood Watch have a 10% chance of totals as high as 4-6 inches. - Low rain chances will continue Sunday and Monday, but dry weather and hotter temperatures are expected next week. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ Update: Latest radar imagery shows MCV continues to spin across Burnet County with heavy rain and thunderstorms rotating around the system. EWX reports up to 15 inches of rain has fallen in Burnet County this morning, while in our cwa southeastern Lampasas County has seen up to 2.5 inches of rainfall. HRRR has been insistent that the MCV will move northward and pull the heavier rain into the Flood Watch area, but this has not yet occurred and the MCV has actually continued to shift slowly westward. However, should the system start a northward trend, flash flooding will become more likely across the Flood Watch area this morning. The Flood Watch may also need to be expanded northward a row of counties based on radar trends through the morning. Past several runs of the HRRR are showing potential for localized rainfall totals of 6-10 inches in parts of Lampasas/Coryell Counties today, but such extreme totals are very uncertain and highly dependent on the MCV track. Only change to ongoing forecast was to raise pops across our Central Texas counties. Shamburger Previous Discussion: /Today through Tonight/ Radar this morning shows light rain stretching from Jacksboro southward to Cameron. Much heavier showers and thunderstorms are occurring just to our south across Williamson, Burnet, and Travis Counties. This activity is in association with the weak upper trough that brought the showers and storms to North and Central Texas yesterday. Another round of fairly widespread showers and storms is anticipated again today across our central and western counties through this afternoon, with the heaviest activity in Central Texas, before activity diminishes this evening. A very moist airmass remains in place across the region with the 00Z FWD sounding showing a PWAT of 2.34 inches - which is nearly 3 standard deviations above normal. Given some focused moisture convergence across our Central Texas counties due to a 20-25 kt southeasterly LLJ and the remnant MCV from yesterday`s historic flooding to our southwest, there is some concern for slow-moving showers and storms today to produce flooding across our southern counties which have received 1 to 3 inches of rain since yesterday. Therefore have gone ahead with a small Flood Watch for Bell, Coryell and Lampasas Counties. Confidence is on the lower side for flooding given the main flood focus expected to be just to our south, but guidance such as the ECMWF EFI showing QPF in the 90th-95th percentile across these counties and PWATs above the daily climatological max certainly warrants concern. 00Z models and CAMs have been inconsistent on rainfall totals for today, but in general another 1 to 3 inches appears most likely for the Flood Watch area with localized amounts possibly reaching 5 inches. Locally heavy rainfall and some localized flooding could also occur in other parts of Central and North Texas today, but those areas have seen less rainfall over the past 24 hours compared to the Flood Watch area. Shamburger && .LONG TERM... /Issued 212 AM CDT Sat Jul 5 2025/ /Sunday through Friday/ The weak upper trough that has brought all the rain to North and Central Texas the past several days is expected to substantially weaken on Sunday and shift westward as a strong upper low approaches from the east and a robust H5 ridge builds over the Desert Southwest. Thus lower rain chances are expected for Sunday and mainly over our western counties. Rain chances will lower further by Monday with little or no pops expected next week as broad upper ridging takes hold across the southern CONUS. However, North and Central Texas will remain within a break in the upper ridge through the week, so some isolated showers and storms cannot be ruled out over our northern counties. Main story will be the heat as temperatures gradually rise through the week thanks to the H5 ridge aloft, with widespread mid to upper 90s and possibly some 100s by the end of the week. With moisture levels remaining high, heat indices will reach well into the 100s with fairly widespread 105+ readings possibly by Thursday and Friday, and heat advisories will be possible for parts of the cwa. Shamburger && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /12Z TAFs/ MVFR/IFR cigs will continue at airports this morning before improving to VFR this afternoon. Frequent SHRA will impact ACT but just VCSH is anticipated at D10 airports. Another round of MVFR cigs is possible on Sunday morning but confidence is too low to include in TAFs. South to southeast winds up to 12 knots will continue through the TAF period. Shamburger && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Limited spotter activation may be requested across Central Texas due to the potential for flooding today. Even if activation is not locally requested, any reports of hazardous weather to the National Weather Service are appreciated. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 87 75 91 76 93 / 50 10 20 5 10 Waco 84 72 89 72 91 / 50 10 10 5 10 Paris 92 72 92 73 93 / 5 5 10 5 20 Denton 88 72 90 73 93 / 40 10 20 5 20 McKinney 89 73 92 74 93 / 40 10 20 5 20 Dallas 88 74 91 75 94 / 50 10 10 5 10 Terrell 91 73 92 72 94 / 30 5 10 5 10 Corsicana 90 73 93 74 94 / 30 10 10 5 10 Temple 83 70 90 72 92 / 60 20 10 5 10 Mineral Wells 85 72 88 72 92 / 40 20 30 5 20 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... Flood Watch through this evening for TXZ156>158. && $$