Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
Issued by NWS Dallas/Fort Worth, TX
017 FXUS64 KFWD 081853 AFDFWD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Fort Worth TX 153 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025 ...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation... .KEY MESSAGES... - Isolated rain showers are possible today with coverage of 10% or less. - Warm and mostly dry weather will continue into next week with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal. && .SHORT TERM... /NEW/ /Today through Thursday Afternoon/ There is not much change from the previous forecast as upper- level ridging continues to dominate the weather across North and Central Texas today and tomorrow. The stalled frontal boundary is currently draped across from SW-NE across the western half of the CWA and will linger in this area the rest of this afternoon. Afternoon highs will be able to reach into the 80s and 90s, remaining 5-10 degrees above seasonal normals. By late afternoon, there may be some diurnally-driven showers near and south of this boundary where better moisture is located and surface wind fields have better convergence signals. The upper level ridging will keep coverage very limited, and have kept 10% PoPs east of I-35 for this afternoon. Any shower will wane with the loss of daytime heating, with a tranquil night in store. Tomorrow, will be another warm day. A shortwave disturbance will transit around the ridge to our east, sending its attendant front south and west towards East Texas. Unfortunately, this backdoor front will not be the "fall cold front" most of us are wanting. The front should begin to edge into our East Texas counties over the afternoon, allowing a couple degrees to be shaved off of high temperatures. Highs will range from the low-mid 80s in the northeast to the mid 80s-low 90s elsewhere. Prater && .LONG TERM... /NEW/ /Thursday Evening Onward/ The front will continue to push further into the region on Friday, resulting in a similar afternoon temperature gradient to Thursday before becoming more diffuse by the weekend. With the continued lack of rain and drier air behind the front, initial fire activity may increase for areas west of I-35, so make sure to take caution! Early next week, a shortwave disturbance will round the apex of the ridge, but any rain from this will likely stay to our north and west. Otherwise, through the rest of the period upper-level ridging will continue to dominate our day-to- day weather, with warm temperatures and rain-free conditions persisting. Prater && .AVIATION... /NEW/ /18Z TAFs/ Northeasterly winds will prevail through the rest of this afternoon and evening at all of the TAF sites, with diurnal cumulus and streaming high cirrus expected to continue. Very isolated showers are possible today, but coverage remains too spotty and isolated to include in the TAF at this time. Winds will eventually settle more E-ENE (varying between 060-100) after 06Z, and will linger there through the rest of the period. There may be more northeasterly winds tomorrow afternoon, but guidance returns the easterly component tomorrow evening. Prater && .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Dallas-Ft. Worth 89 67 87 63 86 / 5 5 5 0 0 Waco 91 67 89 61 87 / 10 5 5 0 0 Paris 86 62 83 56 83 / 10 5 5 0 0 Denton 88 62 86 57 85 / 5 5 5 0 0 McKinney 88 63 86 57 85 / 10 5 5 0 0 Dallas 91 67 88 63 87 / 10 5 5 0 0 Terrell 90 63 86 56 85 / 10 5 5 0 0 Corsicana 92 67 88 60 87 / 10 5 5 0 0 Temple 91 65 89 60 88 / 5 0 0 0 0 Mineral Wells 90 64 89 59 89 / 0 5 5 0 0 && .FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$