307
FXUS64 KFWD 291805
AFDFWD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Fort Worth TX
105 PM CDT Sun Jun 29 2025

...New Short Term, Long Term, Aviation...

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Seasonable conditions will continue this week with daily highs
  in the 90s and heat indices between 99 to 103 degrees.

- There are low chances for storms through the first half of this
  week, with best chances Monday into Tuesday across North Texas.

- Triple digit highs are more likely than not this weekend, with
  chances of 40 to 70 percent in North Texas starting Saturday.


&&

.SHORT TERM... /NEW/
/Today through Monday Afternoon/

A warm end to the weekend is expected across North and Central
Texas. Afternoon high temperatures will peak in the 90s, with heat
indices topping out between 95-103. Similar to days past, there
will continue to be a diurnally-driven chance for isolated-
scattered showers and storms across portions of Central Texas in
response to an inland-moving sea breeze. Severe weather is not
anticipated with this activity, though any more robust storm could
produce gusty, erratic outflow winds and lightning. Nebulous
ascent and no real focus for development will keep storm coverage
very spotty, with most (if not all) of the region likely remaining
dry. Nonetheless, for those of you in Central Texas - if you have
outdoor plans today, make sure to stay weather aware in case you
find yourself under/near a storm. Any lingering activity will wane
over the evening hours with the loss of daytime heating.

Overnight conditions will be warm and humid, with temperatures
only dropping into the mid 70s by daybreak. Over the day
tomorrow, a digging shortwave trough will continue its trek east
across the Plains into the Midwest. In response, an attendant
surface cold front will slide southward through Kansas and
Oklahoma. Out ahead of the front, expect afternoon temperatures
once again in the 90s, with heat indices peaking in the mid 90s to
around 103. As the front continues south we`ll begin to see an
uptick in convective development along the boundary near and north
of the Red River late in the afternoon, with most activity
remaining in Oklahoma during this time. Severe weather is not
expected with any activity in our area, though any stronger storm
could produce gusty, erratic winds, and lightning.

Prater

&&

.LONG TERM... /NEW/
/Monday Night Onward/

The front will stall near the Red River, with continued scattered
showers and storms in North Texas as we head into Tuesday. Severe
weather remains unlikely, with strong wind gusts and lightning the
main hazards. Ridging will build in over midweek, forcing the
front to retreat north. However, a weakness in the ridge will keep
low PoPs in the forecast out west, and we`ll need to keep an eye
on the potential for interruptions to July 4th activities. Looking
ahead to next week, we may finally see more widespread triple
digit temperatures as NBM probabilities of 100+ between 40-70%
across North Texas (20-40% in Central Texas).

Prater

&&

.AVIATION... /NEW/
/18Z TAFs/

Southerly winds and VFR conditions will persist through the rest
of today, with a smattering of afternoon Cu. Isolated sea breeze
showers and storms may impact our Central Texas counties this
afternoon, but coverage will remain too spotty to include in the
ACT TAF at this time. Any lingering storm will dissipate with the
loss of daytime heating. Southerly winds will prevail overnight,
but will gradually shift a bit more out of the southwest tomorrow
morning. A cold front will move south towards the Red River
tomorrow, promoting increased chances for storms along the
boundary. This activity should remain to the north of the D10
airports, but may impact the Bowie and Bonham cornerposts.

Prater

&&

.SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT...
Spotter activation is not expected today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Dallas-Ft. Worth    96  78  96  77  95 /   0   0   5  20  10
Waco                95  75  95  75  95 /   5   0   5   5   5
Paris               93  74  94  73  92 /   5   0   5  20  20
Denton              96  76  97  74  94 /   0   0  10  20  20
McKinney            96  77  96  76  94 /   0   0   5  20  20
Dallas              97  78  98  78  97 /   0   0   5  20  10
Terrell             94  75  95  75  95 /   0   0   5  10  10
Corsicana           95  76  95  76  96 /   5   5   5   5  10
Temple              96  74  95  74  95 /  10   5   5   5   5
Mineral Wells       98  75  97  73  95 /   0   0  10  30  20

&&

.FWD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$