114
FXUS63 KFSD 021925
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
225 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light snow lingers in portions of eastern South Dakota and
  southwestern Minnesota. This will continue to move out to the
  northeast through the afternoon.

- Some light snow showers may redevelop this evening as moisture
  wraps around the departing low.

- Thursday night into Friday night there is another chance for
  some showers. Some uncertainty remains on whether
  precipitation will be rain or snow.

- Dry weather Sunday through mid week with a nice warming trend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 222 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

TODAY: Current radar shows our winter system finally beginning to
move off to the northeast. As it does so, some lingering wrap around
precipitation may continue through this evening. As CAA sweeps in
behind the system, expect the primary precipitation type to be
flurries to light snow. Snow will gradually taper off from south to
north. Additional accumulation will be light, generally an inch or
less with the highest totals expected along and north of Highway 14
in southwestern Minnesota. Winds this afternoon will be
northwesterly and breezy, gusting to 25-30 mph, with a few
occasional gusts to 35 mph possible south of Highway 20. This
could result in some brief reductions in visibility while snow
is actively falling. The good news is the strongest gusts will
be along and south of I-90, removed from the heaviest snow. Some
blowing of snow is possible, but with the wet heavy nature of
the snow, and the warm ground temperatures melting snow shortly
after it falls, the risk is low. Lows for tonight will fall to
the 20s and 30s.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Conditions will dry out for a short time as a week
midlevel ridge builds in over the region. Winds will continue to be
northerly but will be light, gradually becoming easterly overnight.
Highs for Thursday will warm to the 40s and 50s, seasonable but
slightly below average for this time of year. Lows will be in the
20s and 30s. Thursday evening a midlevel wave moves northeast out
over the central Plains. Ahead of the wave comes a push of WAA and
potential vorticity advection. Aloft in the midlevels, weak
instability will help to maintain some light showers. These
showers are expected to continue through the day, gradually
tapering off Friday night into Saturday morning. There remains
large differences in track and timing of precipitation onset.
There is also disagreement on the type of precipitation at
onset. The NAM, EC, and CAN all indicate warmer temperatures at
onset, meaning precipitation will begin as rain, and then slowly
transition to snow. The GFS, however, has a rain to rain/snow
mix at onset that quickly transitions to all snow. All this to
say that uncertainty with this next round of precipitation is
high. As far as high temperatures for Friday they will be
slightly warmer than the previous day thanks to that WAA push,
in the upper 40s to 50. Lows will be in the 20s.

SATURDAY AND BEYOND: An upper wave passes over the region Saturday
turning surface winds northerly and breezy. Slightly cooler highs
for Saturday thanks to weak CAA ahead of the wave, in the 40s.
Another breezy day Sunday as the trough axis pivots overhead. Highs
will be in the 40s and 50s. By Monday a strong upper ridge builds
over the region with high pressure at the surface. Through the
middle of next week, conditions look to be dry with mostly clear
skies. A warming trend begins Monday, with highs in the 40s and 50s,
Tuesday in the 50s and 60s, and 60s to 70s for Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1237 PM CDT Wed Apr 2 2025

A mix of MVFR, IFR, and LIFR this afternoon will continue through
this evening. Ceilings will gradually improve overnight into
Thursday morning.

Mixed precipitation is falling across a large portion of the region
this afternoon. Mainly north of Highway 18, and east of the James
River Valley. Expect mixed precipitation to continue through the
afternoon, gradually lifting north this evening, and becoming light
snow. Areas of southwestern Minnesota are expected to see the most
impacts from snow. Breezy winds may result in periodic
reductions in visibility while snow is falling.

Winds are northerly, becoming northwesterly this afternoon and
increasing. Gusts of 20-30 kts are expected, with the highest gusts
south of I-90, and into northwestern Iowa. Winds gradually decrease
overnight.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for
     SDZ038>040-054>056.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until 7 PM CDT this evening for MNZ071-
     072-080-097.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...AJP