Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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598 FXUS63 KFSD 030904 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 304 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Cold, below normal temperatures continue through the weekend. - Isolated light precipitation, a mix of snow and light freezing rain, diminishes through the early morning hours. Scattered flurries are possible through mid morning. Be prepared for isolated slick spots. - Wind chill values drop to -10 to -25 in most locations tonight into early Thursday. - Stronger winds expected Thursday into Thursday night, possibly leading to patchy blowing snow across parts of southwestern MN and northwestern IA. - Details remain uncertain, but additional snow and precipitation chances continue this weekend into early next week. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 302 AM CST Wed Dec 3 2025 TODAY: A mild morning with temperatures warming a bit early in the overnight, and staying steady or slowly falling, thanks to WAA winning out and continued stratus. Our 1 AM CST temperatures have been in the mid 20s to mid 30s, and most locations have started falling through 2 AM. Cold front continues to move though the southern portions of our forecast area, so any lingering precipitation should come to an end through the overnight hours south of I-90. Elsewhere and through the morning hours, scattered flurries linger. Could see some patchy slick spots, especially on elevated and untreated surfaces. With the push of CAA and colder temperatures, expect steady to falling temperatures through the day today. Highs will have already been reached this morning, and expect afternoon temperatures in the teens and 20s. Expect breezy winds, with gusts today around 25 mph, leading to wind chills near to below zero. TONIGHT: Much colder 925mb temperatures and clearing skies thanks to surface high pressure allows temperatures to fall into the teens and single digits below zero east of I-29, to the single digits above with some lingering cloud cover toward south central SD. Even with lighter winds, wind chills fall to as cold as -25 F. Areas across southwestern MN into northwestern IA look to be the lowest. Some locations do drop to Cold Weather Advisory criteria for a few hours; however, conditions are marginal enough to forgo a headline at this time. THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Surface high pressure moves to the east Thursday, and we`ll see stronger winds between the compressed surface pressure gradient and mixing into some stronger winds aloft. May see some gusts Thursday through Thursday night in the higher elevations around 30 mph. Because of this have added blowing snow mention to the grids. Increased WAA and continued southerly flow should aid in warming us up into the 20s to mid 30s, warmest in south central SD. Short wave and subtle surface front move through Thursday night into Friday, with a stronger wave and front moving through during the day Friday. May see another non-dirunal temperature swing Friday. Additionally, can`t rule out some isolated precipitation with through this period with the boundaries, but guidance shows both fronts being fairly moisture starved so most should stay dry. SATURDAY ONWARD: Guidance diverges through the weekend with regards to any waves/systems. Generally, near to below normal temperatures continue through the weekend, with some warmer temperatures on the horizon early next week. Precipitation wise, although models are split on where a wave tracks Saturday into Saturday night, light precipitation is likely (60% or more across the area of measurable precipitation). The GFS tracks precip through the southern MO Valley, the Canadian across southwestern MN, and the ECMWF in the middle. Timing and strength vary quite a bit, so confidence is low in details. Northwesterly flow prevails through the early part of next week, and could see a few short waves move across the northern and central Plains. A stronger wave is progged to slide into the region mid next week. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/... Issued at 1018 PM CST Tue Dec 2 2025 Mostly MVFR with occasional IFR to LIFR ceilings will continue this TAF period mainly due to lingering stratus. Taking a look at satellite imagery, pockets of flurries and wintry mix continue to progress eastwards this evening. Forecast remains on track for most of this activity to exit the area around 06z (12 am). From here, lingering MVFR to LIFR stratus will persist for the first half of Wednesday before VFR conditions return. Lastly, westerly surface winds will become more northerly and breezy overnight with the breeziness continuing throughout the day on Wednesday to end the TAF period. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...SG AVIATION...05