236
FXUS63 KFSD 281152
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
552 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Snow pushes into the area this morning and persisting through
  Saturday. Snow amounts have increased, with most of the area
  expected to see more than 4 inches of snow, with more than 6
  inches for areas along and east of I-29. A glaze of ice is
  expected south of I-90 into the southern Missouri River Valley
  and US Highway 20 corridor.

- Have updated headlines in response to increased totals.
  Expanded the Winter Storm Warning north and west, and added
  Gregory county to the Winter Weather Advisory.

- Expect disruptions to travel today through the weekend; travel
  will become difficult if not impossible in some areas. Keep up
  to date with the latest forecast, check road conditions before
  traveling, and be prepared to adjust your plans. If you must
  travel, keep a preparedness kit in your car.

- Much colder temperatures are expected most of next week with
  the lows down to the single digits and wind chills below 0F.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 540 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT: Main focus of this forecast is on the
upcoming winter system, with numerous winter weather headlines in
effect across the region and potentially major disruptions to travel
expected through the post-Thanksgiving weekend. Discussion broken
into synopsis, accumulation/rates, winds, and headlines.

SYNOPSIS: Lee-side low pressure in the eastern Rockies develops
through this morning with the first pass of WAA and jet streak
moving into the region by daybreak. Frontogenesis increases with the
WAA, which will lead to a band of snowfall moving east through the
day and into the evening hours with the mid level wave. Expect a
struggle with saturation initially, so snow may take a bit to reach
the ground. Additionally, we should see brief periods of freezing
drizzle or a mix of FZDZ/SN this evening and tonight south of I-90
along the southern MO River Valley and the US Hwy 20 corridor as we
lose the saturation to the DGZ leading to a glaze of ice.

Tonight, we begin to see the surface low eject out of CO into NE,
with continued WAA and the next mid/upper level trough. We may see a
lull in snow with some drier air moving in, but will see the next
round of precip move in from the west fairly quickly so stayed
pretty heavy handed with POPs while trying to show the lull a bit.
Expect snow to continue through the day Saturday, with moderate snow
at times. May see additional banding, although guidance is varied on
the placement of the strongest f-gen. Low pressure and upper trough
move east of the area through Saturday night, with much colder air
in its place.

ACCUMULATIONS/RATES: Snow totals have increased a couple of inches
most places with the increase in QPF for this event. Most of the
area is now looking at 4" or more of snow, with areas east of I-29
looking at 6" or more. Locations in northwestern IA east of IA State
Hwy 60 may see more than a foot of snow (20-50%+). Areas in the
James River Valley may see some amounts toward 6" or more, but there
is a little more uncertainty in that area with guidance more split
here. Generally through the event, snowfall rates of 0.25" to 0.75"
per hour. However, enhancement in the f-gen/other forcing this
evening/tonight may lead to 1" per hour rates across portions of
northwestern IA. Could see some brief heavier rates Saturday as well.

WINDS: Winds start off easterly today and into tonight, with the
strongest winds across south central SD gusting to 30 mph through
the day and into the evening. With falling snow, expect reduced
visibility and some blowing/drifting. Winds shift to northwesterly
Saturday, and will be breezier across the area. Again, main impacts
with widespread wind gusts 25-35 mph will be the blowing and
drifting potential. Be prepared for reduced visibility and difficult
to possibly near impossible travel conditions.

HEADLINES: With the increase in snow amounts, have tweaked the
headlines slightly. Added Gregory county to a Winter Weather
Advisory. The Winter Storm Warning has been expanded west and north,
to now include most of the I-29 corridor. Further expansion to the
Winter Storm Warning is possible, if trends west of I-29 into the
James River Valley continue to increase.


SUNDAY ONWARD: Given the focus on the short term, no changes to the
extended along with a limited discussion. Sunday looks to be dry and
colder as high pressure moves into the region. Highs Sunday will
struggle to get out of the teens, with lows in the single digits
either side of zero. Colder temperatures, 10 or so degrees below
average, continue through next week, although some locations should
moderate back closer to normal. A couple of quick moving
waves/troughs moving through could lead to some light precipitation
chances early and mid week, although confidence is low given model
disagreements and overall lack of moisture. Periodic breezy
conditions, which could lead to some blowing/drifting issues on
Monday. Wind chills fall below zero at times.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY/...
Issued at 532 AM CST Fri Nov 28 2025

A winter system with accumulating snowfall impacts the region
through the TAF period and through Saturday. MVFR/IFR stratus
prevails once ceilings drop. Snow moves east through the day,
overspreading the region. Moderate to heavy snow is expected at
times, with LIFR visibilities. For later today into tonight,
FZDZ is expected south of I-90 toward KSUX, leading to a light
glaze of ice. There may be lulls in snowfall this evening into
Saturday morning; however, struggled timing this and kept a -SN
mention with some higher visibility to account for lighter snow.
Moderate to heavy snowfall accumulations expected through
Saturday night, highest along and east of IA/MN State Hwy 60.

Winds today will be southeasterly to easterly, with northeast
winds toward the end of the period. Strongest winds across south
central SD today with gusts around 25 kts. 15-20 kt gusts
expected through much of the period. Blowing and drifting snow
will lead to reduced visibility, even if snow is not falling.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for SDZ055-056-062-066-067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to noon CST
     Saturday for SDZ038-039-053-054-059>061-065.
     Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST
     Saturday night for SDZ040.
     Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST Saturday for SDZ050-052-
     057-058-063-064-068.
MN...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Storm Warning from noon today to midnight CST Saturday
     night for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG