914
FXUS63 KFSD 090317
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1017 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Temperatures will run 5 to 15 degrees above normal into early
  next week.

- The next chance for rain will not arrive until the weekend.
  Coverage remains uncertain at this time but there is only
  30-50% chance for rainfall amounts to exceed a tenth of an
  inch at this time. The 75th percentile keeps amounts
  generally less than 0.4" of rain in most locations through
  Monday morning.

- Additional chances for rain are possible into the middle of
  next week though details are very uncertain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 210 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Gusty, southerly flow gradually increases from west to east
this afternoon through tonight, bringing milder morning lows to
the area. Some mid level clouds will also spread northward
tonight aiding in insulating the area. This should result in
lows only falling to around 50, with the coolest readings in
parts of northwest IA where winds will be lightest and
temperatures may fall into the mid 40s. Temperatures will be
nicely warm on Thursday and should climb into the mid and upper
70s in most locations.

A quick and weak front will move through on Thursday evening
bringing slightly cooler temperatures with high pressure building
south during the day Friday. Temperatures will again be on the mild
side with lows mainly upper 40s to lower 50s and highs in the lower
to mid 70s.

This ridge of high pressure remains somewhat locked in just east of
the area into Saturday morning. This keeps dry air locked into
place with very low chances for rainfall through Saturday morning.
By Saturday afternoon very weak instability and a weak wave spread
onto the Northern Plains which will gradually bring a chance for
showers to the area Saturday afternoon and evening. The better
chances through sunset will be west of I-29. Precipitation will
mainly be driven by the weak instability, less than 500 J/kg CAPE.
The increase in clouds along with the exiting surface high pressure
on Saturday will bring cooler highs, mainly in the 60s.

The main trough should move through on Sunday, bringing another
fairly weak front into the area. Scattered showers and a very
isolated rumble of thunder will be possible Saturday night into
Sunday, but coverage is in question. Will need to keep an eye on
temperatures trends as highs may be a bit too warm given the south
southeast flow and chance for some clouds to be around. There will
likely be some warming near and behind the front however, so timing
will play a roll.

Late Monday afternoon into early Tuesday morning upper level ridging
will likely keep precipitation chances to a minimum. Tuesday
afternoon into Wednesday will see another wave swing by to the north
which will bring a front and isolated to scattered chance for rain.
Temperatures should remain near to above normal during this time.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z FRIDAY/...
Issued at 1015 PM CDT Wed Oct 8 2025

Stratus continues to develop and stream northeast late this
evening. Generally ceilings remain at VFR levels, but there is
some potential for ceilings after daybreak and through mid-
morning to drop near 3K FT AGL. While the moisture layer remain
shallow, models continue to hint at the potential for sprinkles
to even a shower or two. Confidence remains too low to indicate
in the TAF at this point.

Stratus will struggle to move east through the day Thursday, and
may stubbornly remain over portions of SW Minnesota and adjacent
areas of Iowa and South Dakota into mid-afternoon.

Winds will turn gusty from the south through the afternoon, with
a gradual diminishing wind by sunset.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...Dux