774
FXUS63 KFSD 231726
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fall-like weather arrives Saturday and continues well through
  the upcoming work week.

- While a few sprinkles may be in the region the upcoming days,
  the next appreciable rain risk won`t arrive until the end of
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 207 AM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

THIS MORNING:  A cold front continues to track slowly southward
early this morning, bringing breezy northerly winds and lower
dewpoints.  Ahead of the front, patchy fog, occasionally dense at
times, will persist until the passage of the boundary by daybreak.

TODAY:  Northerly winds are expected to persist through Saturday, as
temperatures struggle to reach the 70s.  Most of the Upper Midwest
will be under the influence of a large upper trough centered over
the Great Lakes.  On the western flank of this trough, and firmly in
the low-lvl cold advection zone, we`ll see an increase of diurnal CU
field this afternoon.  High-resolution CAMs all indicate the
development of widely scattered showers to sprinkles over MN a few
of which may graze the Buffalo Ridge areas.

TONIGHT: A secondary lobe of vorticity tracks along the western side
of the larger trough, likely keeping occasional mid-lvl cloud cover
in the region and perhaps allowing an isolated shower or two to
track through the Minnesota River valley and Buffalo Ridge areas
into the overnight.  Generally PoPs remain low.  Grab an extra
blanket at bedtime as low temperatures fall into the upper 40s
to lower 50s. These cool temperatures may lead to
valley/river/lake fog Sunday morning.

SUNDAY-WEDNESDAY:  Very quiet weather will continue through the
middle of the upcoming work week as northerly mid-lvl flow and
surface high pressure remains in effect.   Temperatures Sunday
through Tuesday remain in the upper 60s to lower 70s with afternoon
CU.

THURSDAY-FRIDAY: Weak low-lvl southerly flow returns by late
Wednesday into Thursday, pulling increased moisture into the Central
and Western Plains by mid-week. There remains quite a bit of
uncertainty in the mid-lvl flow amongst medium range models, with
CMC/EC both suggesting much more influence from continued troughing
over the Great Lakes and Hudson Bay region.  GFS suggest flow will
be more flattened, with much more convectively induced vorticity
flowing into the Plains Thursday and Friday.  Really no strong
forcing in either setup, and instability/shear remain too low for
any severe weather risks.  Will maintain a fairly low PoP around 15-
20% Thursday into Friday, centered mostly James River valley and
areas to the southwest. Temperatures remain in the middle to upper
70s.

 &&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1057 PM CDT Fri Aug 22 2025

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the TAF period,
though there is a low probability of MVFR visibility in fog
ahead of a cold front which could impact KSUX and portions of
northwest IA prior to sunrise. Confidence too low to include in
the KSUX TAF at this time, but will monitor trends and amend if
needed.

North winds behind the cold front may briefly gust 20-25kt early
in the TAF period. Otherwise more widespread gusts 20-25kt are
expected with mixing late morning and afternoon Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1226 PM CDT Sat Aug 23 2025

A CU field has developed across the majority of the area early this
afternoon. The CU field is sitting mainly at VFR levels though a few
locations rave reported ceilings down to MVFR thresholds. Should see
the CU field further rise to about 4,000 to 5,000 ft this afternoon.
Some sprinkles are possible beneath the CU field, mainly across
parts of southwest Minnesota. Winds remain out of the northwest with
gusts up to about 20 knots expected this afternoon. Winds will go
light and variable overnight tonight before slightly picking up out
of the northwest again to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Meyers