


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Versions:
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
17
18
19
20
21
22
23
24
25
26
27
28
29
30
31
32
33
34
35
36
37
38
39
40
41
42
43
44
468 FXUS63 KFSD 171930 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 230 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 .KEY MESSAGES... - Scattered showers will return by Saturday with mostly light accumulations. - Patchy areas of frost will be possible by Sunday morning. Make sure to cover or bring in any sensitive vegetation. - The combination of strong winds and drier fuels on Monday will lead to high to very high fire danger. Make sure to limit any activity that could create a spark! && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 225 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A seasonable day continues! Taking a look across the area, mostly clear conditions persist this afternoon with temperatures largely in the 60s to low 70s. From here, expect the quieter conditions to persist well into the evening as breezy westerly winds gradually decrease. Otherwise, expect mid to high level cloud cover to gradually increase overnight as our next system ejects out of the Rockies into the northern plains. Lastly, slightly cooler temperatures are expected overnight given the lingering cold air advection (CAA) and lighter winds. As a result, lows will likely fall into the low to mid 40s for the night. SATURDAY-SUNDAY: Looking into the rest of the weekend, an active pattern continues aloft as a trough ejects out of the Rockies with its associated cold front by Saturday. Scattered showers will likely develop initially across northwestern SD then gradually spread southeastwards over the course of Saturday with the first drops in our area likely occurring around daybreak in our western-most counties. While the I-29 corridor won`t likely see any accumulations up until late morning to early afternoon (11am to 1pm), most of the guidance continue to show light accumulations with most areas only seeing a few hundredths to a tenth of an inch at best (0.01" to 0 .10"). Shifting gears here, besides the main push of precipitation with the cold front; some the CAMs have started to introduce some wrap around showers behind the front as well so we`ve tried to work these chances in to POPs as well. When its all said and done should see most of this activity exit our area by the evening hours. Otherwise, cool and breezy conditions are expected on Saturday as highs struggle to get into the 50s and low 60s given the conditions. Surface winds will be on the breezier side as a tightening SPG lead to wind gusts in the 25-35 mph range at times behind the previously mentioned cold front. With in mind, decided to continue the trend of blending in some of the NBM90th percentile for our wind gusts in the afternoon. Lastly, as cooler air funnels into the region and winds become lighter; could see areas of frost develop to start the day on Sunday as overnight lows dip into the low to upper 30s. While these areas will be patchy at best, the better chances will likely be in our far western and northwestern zones where the lightest winds are expected. Either way, make sure to cover and/or bring in any sensitive vegetation. With heights expected to rise by Sunday with approaching upper level ridging expect quieter conditions to return as highs peak in the 60s. MONDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, the active pattern will extend into the new week as a well agreed upon trough traverses the Northern Plains by Monday. As lee cyclogenesis out of the Rockies leads to the development of a surface low, the SPG will also tighten leading to gusty northwesterly winds from the mid-morning onwards. With ensemble guidance continuing to show moderate to high probabilities (50%-80%) of wind gusts exceeding 35 kts, decided to continue the trend of increasing our overall wind speeds using a blend of the NBM90th percentile. Nonetheless, high fire danger is expected through the evening as the combination of strong winds and drier fuels could lead to rapid fire spread. With this in mind, make sure to limit any activity that could create a spark! Otherwise, precipitation chances continue to look rather limited ahead. Besides a few light shower with the cold front on Monday and some wrap around showers Tuesday morning, most ensemble guidance continues to keep QPF under a 0.10" of an inch through the last week of October. Lastly, expect seasonal temperatures to continue through Thursday with temperatures mainly in the 50s an 60s. && .AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1240 PM CDT Fri Oct 17 2025 VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at satellite imagery, mostly clear skies continue this afternoon. While these conditions will likely persist into the evening hours, expect cloud cover to gradually increase overnight as scattered showers move into the area closer to daybreak. Decided to add PROB30 groups in at least KHON and KFSD due to their increasing probs throughout the day. Otherwise, westerly surface winds tonight will become more northwesterly by Saturday and breezy with gusts between 25-35 mph expected during the afternoon hours. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...05 AVIATION...05