724
FXUS63 KFSD 060904
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
304 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A quick-moving winter system will bring mainly 3-6" of snow
  for most areas along and east of the James River today.
  Locally higher amounts over 6 inches will be possible around
  the Iowa Great Lakes into the Jackson and Worthington,
  Minnesota areas.

- Snowfall rates as high as 1-1.5" inches per hour within the
  heaviest band axis during the afternoon to evening hours will
  lead to rapid accumulations along and east of I-29. Visibility
  reductions and hazardous road conditions will lead to minor to
  moderate travel impacts at times affecting the evening commute.

- Cold wind chills will return each night through Monday with
  values as cold as 20 below possible.

- An active pattern aloft will lead to multiple precipitation
  chances through the work week. Continue to monitor the
  forecast moving forward.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 255 AM CST Sat Dec 6 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: A dreary and cooler day ahead! Taking a look across
the area, mainly overcast skies continue this morning with most
areas sitting in the mid to upper 20s. Don`t expect much change
during the day as overcast skies and slight breezy southeasterly
winds keep temperatures locked into the 20s to low 30s with the
warmest conditions along the Missouri River Valley. Taking a
look aloft, the forecast remains on track as a quick mid-level
wave dives across portions of South Dakota, Nebraska, and
Minnesota today bringing our next chances for snow. By daybreak,
should see light returns over central SD become more widespread
across southeastern SD as increasing dPVA and mid-level frontal
forcing interact with the WAA regime ahead of the surface
trough. From here, an enhanced area of snowfall should to begin
to take shape by late morning just south of the I-90 corridor in
southeastern SD and this should be the main driver of our
accumulations going forward. As this developing band of snowfall
gradually pivots southeastwards, HREF guidance continue to show
moderate to high confidence (60%-80%) in 1" in/hr or greater
snowfall rates which should lead to moderate to heavy
accumulations at times especially across far southeastern SD,
northwestern IA, and portions of southwestern MN.

With all of this in mind and collaboration with our neighbors,
decided to upgrade portions of our Winter Weather Advisory in
northwestern IA and southwestern MN into a Winter Storm Warning
where confidence was highest in 6+ inches of accumulations. While 3-
5 inches of accumulations continues to look like the most likely
range for most areas east of the James River, can`t rule out
additional upgrades in far southeastern SD and southwestern MN if
the axis of heaviest snowfall shifts northwards or southwards.
Otherwise, should see most of the snow taper off by late evening.
Shifting gears to impacts, falling snow and rapid accumulations will
lead reductions in visibility and hazardous travel mainly in the
afternoon to evening hours. As a result, minor to moderate travel
impacts are expected especially in the areas with the highest
accumulations so be prepared to post-pone travel plans where
necessary! Looking into the rest of the night, a fresh snowpack and
lighter surface winds will lead to much colder conditions overnight
with lows being on either side of zero. Nonetheless, wind chill will
likely be even colder with values as low as 20 below possible mainly
across southwestern MN.

SUNDAY ONWARDS: Looking ahead, a surface high will move in to
replace the departing system on Sunday. Unfortunately, so will
another mid-level wave. With this in mind, additional light
accumulations will be possible from Sunday night into Monday mainly
along and north of I-90. The cold air plunge will continue as well
with highs mainly in the single digits to low 20s. From here, the
active pattern aloft will continue for the rest of the week. By
Tuesday, a decently strong clipper wave will dive across the
northern plains bringing our next chances for precipitation.
However, increasing warm air advection (WAA) and southerly surface
winds ahead of this system will likely keep most of the
precipitation as rain or a rain/snow mix given temperatures in the
upper 30s to upper 40s. As long-range guidance starts to diverge
between Wednesday to Thursday, it looks like another clipper will
fly through the northern plains. However, there are still subtle
differences in the timing and placement of features. Lastly,
temperatures will continue to trend colder from Wednesday onwards
with highs mainly in the teens to low 20s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1054 PM CST Fri Dec 5 2025

MVFR stratus continues to blanket the majority of the area late this
evening. Some breaks in the stratus are present west of I-29. The
stratus behind these breaks is variable in ceiling impact as
ceilings range between VFR/MVFR. These variable ceilings will
persist through the night before the next chance for snow moves into
the area tomorrow morning. Ceilings and visibilities will lower to
MVFR/IFR/LIFR levels across the area as snow begins to fall. Snow
will persist through the afternoon hours before beginning to clear
during the evening hours. Winds will turn to out of the southeast
tonight and become a bit breezy by tomorrow afternoon with gusts up
to 15 to 25 knots. The breezy winds may lead to patchy blowing snow
while snow is falling. Ceilings and visibilities look to lift a
little bit in the aftermath of the snow but remain around MVFR
levels. These conditions look to finish out the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     this evening for SDZ040-055-056-061-062-066-067-069>071.
     Winter Weather Advisory from 6 AM this morning to 6 PM CST
     this evening for SDZ038-039-052>054-058>060-064-065-068.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST
     tonight for MNZ071-072-080-081-089-090-097-098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory from noon today to midnight CST
     tonight for IAZ001>003-012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory from 9 AM this morning to 9 PM CST
     this evening for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...Meyers