738
FXUS63 KFSD 151125
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
525 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light showers/sprinkles north of I-90 early today. Otherwise
  cooler & dry this weekend, though still mild for mid-November
  with highs in the upper 40s and 50s.

- Rain chances (30-60%) return Monday, possibly mixing with snow
  at times Monday night. Moderate confidence in precipitation
  timing, but low confidence in amounts/location.

- Latter half of next week remains unsettled, though with greater
  uncertainty in storm track/timing and associated precipitation
  chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 320 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

TODAY-SUNDAY: A cold front pushing southeast early this morning will
bring temperatures closer to late-October/early-November normals
instead of the mid-late September readings we saw on Friday. A band
of light showers/sprinkles will accompany the trailing elevated
front into areas north of I-90 early-mid morning. This activity will
weaken as it moves into drier air and the remainder of the weekend
will be mostly dry with partly-mostly cloudy skies and seasonably
mild high temps in the upper 40s and 50s. High-res models indicate
a potential for spotty sprinkles again tonight into early Sunday,
but confidence in occurrence is too low to include in the forecast
at this time.

MONDAY-TUESDAY: A strong storm system moving onshore in California
today will cross the Rockies Sunday, then weaken as it tracks into
the northern Plains/upper Mississippi Valley early next week. Models
are still fluctuating on the track of this system, with latest runs
showing more of a northward trend than we were seeing at this time
yesterday morning. While southern parts of the region should see
light rain with the initial wave of moisture on Monday, trends are
now pointing to increasing chances near/north of I-90 by Monday
evening as the wave shears off to the east. The northward shift also
results in warmer thermal profiles, with mostly rain expected. The
exception will be a lingering potential rain/snow mix in the higher
elevations of southwest Minnesota late Monday/Monday night. Timing
of the system has remained relatively consistent, with the highest
chances focused on Monday afternoon/night and exiting by daybreak
Tuesday. However, the north-south fluctuations lend to lower
confidence in exact precipitation amounts and location. That said,
the latest NBM is showing moderate (40-60%) probability of 24 hour
rainfall exceeding 0.10 inch with a 30-40% probability of topping
0.25 inch east of I-29.

Temperatures do remain on the mild side of mid-November normals,
with highs mainly in the 40s and lows a few degrees either side of
freezing.

WEDNESDAY-FRIDAY: Brief upper ridging Wednesday will break down with
the approach of another trough swinging out of the southern Rockies
Thursday. A much broader spectrum of possible tracks are seen with
this system as it moves into the Plains late next week, leading to
low confidence in timing/location of precipitation chances. While
temperatures could see a brief bump back into the 50s for parts of
the forecast area on Wednesday, highs in the 40s are more likely for
the latter part of the work week, with moderate (>50%) probability
that temperatures will remain in the 30s by Friday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 524 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

Band of mid-level clouds 8-11kft AGL sagging south may produce
spotty -SHRA as far south as I-90 at the start of the period.
Behind this, SCT-BKN stratus 3-5kft AGL will dominate the late
morning to afternoon, along with NW-N winds gusting 18-25kt.

Gusts diminish by sunset, with light/variable winds overnight.
High-resolution models indicate potential for spotty sprinkles
during the latter half of the TAF period, but confidence is too
low to include in the forecast at this time.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH