341
FXUS63 KFSD 242305
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
605 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Fall-like weather persists today and will continue through
  the middle of next week. Near record low temperatures possible
  tonight and Monday night.

- While a few sprinkles may be in the region the upcoming days,
  the next appreciable rain risk won`t arrive until next
  weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 221 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

A CU field remains across most of the area this afternoon. Latest
BUFKIT soundings continue to show dry air in the low levels which
should keep things dry to maybe an isolated chance for a sprinkle.
Marginally breezy northwest winds persist on our this Fall like day
with gusts up to 20-25 mph and highs peaking in the 60s to low 70s.
Winds will go light and variable tonight as surface ridging slides
into the area. With light winds and clear skies in place, tonight
will be a chilly night as lows fall to the 40s across the area.
While not record cold, these temperatures will be near record cold.

The cooler airmass will stick around through Monday as the
previously mentioned surface high pressure system finally slides
through. Highs will again only warm to the 60s and 70s. Lows will
again be on the cold side but just a bit warmer than Sunday`s lows
in the 40s to up to about 50F. Still, these temperatures remain near
record cold. The high will slide to the southeast of the forecast
area on Tuesday, setting up southerly return flow in its wake. This
will begin a slow warming trend with highs warming back to the 70s
to perhaps touching 80F. The southerly flow will persist into
Wednesday, allowing for high temperatures to return to near
seasonable in the mid 70s to the 80s.

Thursday and Friday appear to be dry days at this time with high
temperatures remaining seasonable in the 70s and 80s. The ensembles
hint at the possibility of some light rain on Thursday though this
is a low probability (10-30% chance) for exceeding a tenth of an
inch. With broad upper level troughing over the eastern CONUS, do
agree with the ensembles that it looks more likely than not that
conditions stay dry.

Variance in the upper level pattern markedly increases for next
weekend amongst medium range guidance. Turning to the ensembles
reveals that there is modest agreement in a shortwave trough passing
through the Northern Plains on Saturday. The ensembles have shown an
uptick in rainfall probabilities, now up to a 30-50% chance for
exceeding a tenth of an inch of rain. These probabilities decrease
on Sunday as the best forcing for ascent pushes east of the area.
Too early to say on specific rainfall amounts but something to keep
an eye on going forward. Otherwise, high temperatures will remain in
the 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 605 PM CDT Sun Aug 24 2025

Scattered diurnal cumulus will dissipate around or shortly after
sunset, but is expected to redevelop late morning-midday Monday.
Conditions will remain VFR with SCT coverage at most. Variable
winds at/below 12kt are expected through this period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...Meyers