037
FXUS63 KFSD 181135
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
535 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Precipitation intensity has been weakening since midnight and
  will continue to weaken as the system slides off to the east
  through mid-morning. Additional snow accumulation this morning
  will be light.

- Mostly dry conditions will dominate the rest of the this week
  into early next week, with temperatures remaining on the warm
  side of normal (highs: lower-mid 40s and lows: lower-mid 20s).

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 340 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

THIS MORNING: Center of the mid-upper level low is currently
spinning through northwest Iowa per satellite/radar imagery,
with 2 distinct bands of precipitation remaining in our area.
The first immediately near the low will produce periods of rain
in northwest Iowa through daybreak to mid-morning. The second is
the narrow west-east band near to just north of the Highway 14
corridor. This band, as anticipated, was rather intense during
the late evening until around midnight as it lifted north toward
Highway 14. However, convection south of the system, now pushing
into southeast Iowa seems to have led to the wave becoming more
sheared out than previously anticipated.

This has resulted in a more rapid decrease in precipitation
intensity within the western extent of this northern band. The
lighter intensity is limiting dynamic cooling impacts, leading
to accumulating snow generally remaining confined to the higher
elevations of the Buffalo Ridge (far northeast Brookings County,
across Lincoln County MN and western Lyon County MN). DOT cameras
show limited accumulation on roads, with road surface temps at
Ivanhoe/Lake Benton still just above freezing as of 3 AM.

Previously cancelled the southern tier of counties within the
Winter Weather Advisory (Pipestone/Murray/Cottonwood counties)
when the band became focused north of Highway 14. With current
trends pointing to little additional snow accumulation along our
Highway 14 corridor, coordinated with neighbors to cancel the
remainder of the advisory early.

THIS AFTERNOON-TONIGHT: Precipitation ends across the forecast
area by mid-morning, but lingering low level moisture will keep
mostly cloudy skies around much of today. The cooler air mass in
place will lead to the chilliest day of this forecast period,
with highs ranging from mid to upper 30s in southwest Minnesota,
to mid 40s through the Missouri River Valley. A warm front
begins to push into western parts of the CWA tonight which
should keep lows tonight relatively mild in the low-mid 30s
despite at least partial clearing.

WEDNESDAY ONWARD: Warm advection continues through Wednesday,
with low level temperatures supporting highs in the upper 40s
and 50s for most of the forecast area. Warmest locations in our
southwest could even top 60 degrees. Relatively light winds in
the warmest area along with moderate humidity levels around 50%
will limit fire weather concerns.

The remainder of this week into early next week will feature
mostly dry conditions. Will still be watching the eventual track
of a late week system moving through the central Plains Friday.
Some ensemble solutions show low (~20%) probabilities of light
rain reaching the Highway 20 corridor, though the majority of
solutions are supporting a more southerly track which would keep
our area dry. Temperatures through the period are expected to
remain above our mid-late November normals, with forecast highs
largely in the mid 40s-mid 50s and lows most days in the upper
20s-lower 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY/...
Issued at 535 AM CST Tue Nov 18 2025

Widespread MVFR-IFR ceilings are expected to persist across the
forecast area through much of the area through this TAF period.

Lingering light precipitation, mostly rain with a rain/snow mix
or all snow in the highest elevations of southwest Minnesota,
will move east of the forecast area by 16Z. However, areas of
fog will linger across portions of southwest Minnesota and
northwest Iowa through tonight, producing MVFR-locally IFR
visibility even after precipitation ends.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...JH
AVIATION...JH