669
FXUS63 KFSD 092321
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
521 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Cold temperatures continue into Monday, with temperatures
  5-10+ degrees below normal.

- Temperatures warm through the work week and climb well above
  normal into next weekend. Confidence is high that temperatures
  reach 10+ degrees above normal.

- Dry weather expected through the week, with next risk for rain
  arriving towards the end of next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 130 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Skies are clearing leaving a sharp view of the snow
that has fallen over the past weekend. Temperatures remain well
below normal thanks to this snow cover.  The cold and dry air has
pulled quite a bit of moisture out of the snow cover, allowing 20 to
25 knot gusts to lead to minor drifting or blowing of the snow.

TONIGHT: The most uncertainty in the forecast tonight revolves
around the approach of additional stratus moving southwest
across Minnesota this afternoon. Short term guidance has been
slow to pickup on this cloud layer (also struggled with stratus
Saturday night), which has been on a stead southwest trajectory
all afternoon. Going with more pessimistic model guidance that
pulls this stratus along and west of I-29 after dark tonight.
While low- lvl temperatures warm, a rogue flurry or two will be
possible. The complications these clouds bring overnight will be
with temperatures. With light winds, snow cover, and shallow
cold airmass in place, this would be prime conditions for
extreme falls in overnight lows. However any stratus could
insulate the ground and leave temperatures in the 20s.
Additionally some high lvl cirrus will arrive overnight. Have
attempted to account for where these clouds may end up and move
overnight, with some areas falling near the single digits and
others stuck much higher.

MONDAY: High pressure only slowly drifts east on Monday, bringing
southwesterly low-lvl flow to the region by the afternoon.  A cold
start to the day, along with 2-4" of snow cover could leave a larger
portion of the CWA only near the freezing mark.  Have tried to lower
temperatures over the snow cover.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: A VERY quiet week ahead is expected for most in the
region as mid-lvl heights begin to build eastward through the week.
The passage of a weak surface trough early Tuesday could bring some
mid-lvl clouds and sprinkles/flurries, but that may be it for
precipitation chances this week. We`ll gradually watch temperatures
build from the 40s to lower 50s on Tuesday all the way to the upper
50s and 60s on Friday.  We`ll have to watch for the impact of cold
and wet ground through the week to see if it will have any impact on
the reach of high temperatures, especially since 925:850 mb
temperatures exceed the 90th percentile by Friday.

SATURDAY-SUNDAY:  While there remains quite a bit of spread in
medium range models heading into next weekend, the consensus is that
a larger upper trough will leave the western CONUS and move towards
the central CONUS at some point. Increasing moisture ahead of this
trough may bring the return of rain chances by Sunday. Ensemble
spread is very large, but at least some agreement between the
EC/GFS/CMC ensembles of 30% probabilities of 0.10" of precipitation
along and east of I-29 by Sunday.  However, considering that 24
hours ago these same probabilities were 0%, I`d expect continued
forecast changes.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 520 PM CST Sun Nov 9 2025

Latest satellite imagery shows MVFR stratus sitting across portions
of far east central South Dakota, southwest Minnesota, and northwest
Iowa. The stratus is sliding to the south/southeast and will
continue to do so through the evening and night. Do think that the
stratus will make it to KFSD and KSUX though confidence is a little
lower on the timing of the stratus. Will keep a close eye on it and
make amendments if necessary. A stray flurry is possible beneath
the stratus though confidence is too low to include in a TAF. The
stratus should lift during the morning hours tomorrow. Winds will
turn from out of the northwest to out of the south/southwest during
the day tomorrow. Gusts up to 10-20 knots will finish out the TAF
period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Meyers