254
FXUS63 KFSD 081155
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
555 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The first widespread snow chances continue to move across the
  area today through this evening.

- Model trends have again increased the overall snow potential
  with a slightly southwest shift in coverage. Expect 1 to 3
  inches for much of the area, with isolated higher amounts
  between Sioux Falls and Sioux City into northwestern Iowa.

- Confidence has increased in colder temperatures through the
  day. However, even a change of 1-3 degrees will have an impact
  on snow totals.

- Seasonally cold temperatures likely Sunday and Monday with
  widespread teens for lows and highs struggling to climb through
  the 30s. Morning wind chills in the single digits.

- Warmer temperatures return next week with another prolonged
  dry stretch of weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 305 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

THROUGH TONIGHT: First area of precipitation is moving into the
region early this morning, and slowed things down a couple of hours
from the previous forecast. Have seen some automated reports of this
starting as rain (based on soundings this might be the case due to
some drier air through the DGZ). However, expect rain to be a brief
p-type as dew points have lowered into the mid 20s to lower 30s, and
we saturate the DGZ. Guidance has continued to trend colder, so
lower temps and dew points for the day. Additionally, guidance is
also indicating some higher (0.5" or more per hour) snowfall rates
in a narrow corridor of better forcing along the MO River Valley
into northwestern IA as the wave moves east. With amounts trending
slightly higher and further south, along with the potential for
higher snowfall rates this morning, expanded the Winter Weather
Advisory to the southwest to encompass northeastern NE. Still
anticipating the bulk of the accumulations this morning through the
early afternoon hours with the initial wave. Some uncertainty in
accumulations remains along the MO River Valley due to temperatures.
A degree or two difference will have a impact on whether that area
sees more rain or a mix or all snow. After the first wave, the
second wave/trough axis (currently across eastern MT/western ND)
swings through south central SD into northern NE. Some areas across
portions of SD may see a break in precipitation today between the
two waves. Again, some uncertainty in the temperatures with this
wave along the MO River Valley where we may remain warm enough for
more rain than snow, but temperatures should fall quickly this
afternoon/evening as CAA dives into the area. Precipitation should
move east and exit the region late this evening. Through the event,
not expecting any sleet or freezing rain; p-type should be either
rain or snow or a mix of the two.

For accumulations, most of the area should see 1-3 inches, highest
in the Winter Weather Advisory. Areas between Sioux Falls and Sioux
City stretching southeast into northwestern IA may see locally
higher amounts. Looking at the HREF, which is one of the more
bullish models this morning with regards to rates, indicates a low
to moderate chance (45% or less) of portions of northwestern IA
seeing more than 4 inches through the event. Heavier snowfall rates
at times could lead to reduced visibility. If traveling today, be
prepared for some winter driving conditions.

Most of the area should see lighter winds today, with the strongest
winds across south central SD where winds may gust to 40 mph. Winds
remain breezy into tonight; however, should not see much in the way
of blowing snow given the wetter snow that is expected. Temperatures
today remain in the 30s for most of the area, with some in south
central SD possibly warming back up near 40.

SUNDAY-MONDAY: Cold surface high pressure along with the upper
trough moving east keeps much colder conditions in place Sunday and
into Monday, although temperatures begin to moderate Monday with the
return of southerly flow. With lows in the teens, expect morning
wind chills in the single digits both Sunday and Monday morning.
Highs Sunday in the upper 20s to mid 30s and Monday in the 30s to
lower 40s. Dry conditions with breezy afternoons expected. Gusts at
times to 30 mph.

TUESDAY-FRIDAY: Ridging builds across the western CONUS through next
week, with us in northwesterly flow through Friday, when ridge axis
moves overhead. Although a couple shortwaves/troughs move through,
dry conditions prevail. Occasionally breezy with temperatures near
to above seasonal averages through the work week - generally highs
in the 50s and 60s with lows in the 30s.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 546 AM CST Sat Nov 8 2025

Snow, with some rain mixed in this morning toward the MO River
Valley and US Hwy 20 corridor, continues to push eastward
through the early afternoon. Ceilings and visibility generally
MVFR to IFR, with some brief LIFR conditions in heavier snow. As
of this discussion, can already see the back edge of this area
of precipitation east of KICR toward KABR. The bulk of snow
accumulations are expected with this wave through late morning
into early afternoon, around 1-3 inches.

Expect a second area of precipitation later this afternoon and
evening, with some mix of rain and snow again possible toward
the MO River Valley. Tried to time out the breaks in precip
based on the latest hi-res guidance, but expect refinements as
the next wave approaches. Light snow accumulations expected with
this round of precipitation, half an inch or less. Again, MVFR
and lower conditions prevail. Ceilings begin to improve behind
this area of precipitation, with VFR conditions returning for
the end of the period.

Winds today will be somewhat variable in direction. Most of the
area will see gusts around or less than 25 knots through the
period, with stronger gusts (around 35 knots) this afternoon and
evening across south central SD.


&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for SDZ061-062-
     065>067-069>071.
MN...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for MNZ098.
IA...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for IAZ001-002-
     012>014-020>022-031-032.
NE...Winter Weather Advisory until noon CST today for NEZ013-014.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...SG
AVIATION...SG