561
FXUS63 KFSD 152005
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
205 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Additional sprinkles/flurries will be possible this evening
  and overnight mainly west of I-29. Otherwise cooler & dry this
  weekend, though still mild for mid-November with highs in the
  upper 40s and 50s.

- Rain chances (30-60%) return by Monday, possibly mixing with
  snow at times by Monday night. Moderate confidence in
  precipitation timing, but low confidence in amounts/location.

- Latter half of next week remains unsettled, though with
  greater uncertainty in storm track/timing and associated
  precipitation chances.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 200 PM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

CURRENTS & TONIGHT: A slightly cooler day continues! Taking a look
across the area, fall-like conditions persist across the area this
afternoon with temperatures mainly in the 50s to low 60s. While our
temperatures will likely stall out here before decreasing for the
day, expect marginally breezy northwesterly winds to gradually
decrease into the evening with the arrival of a surface high. While
the increase in subsidence should help keep most of our area dry,
can`t completely rule out some sprinkle/flurries this evening and
overnight as a ribbon of lift sets up across areas north of I-90.
This is further agreed upon in the CAMs which have expanded in cover
with the 12z run of guidance. While accumulations are expected to be
very light, decided to introduce some chance POPs (10% or less) for
most of my SD and northwestern IA counties through 09z (3 am). Lastly,
a much cooler night is expected tonight as lighter winds and cold
air advection (CAA) overhead leads to lows in the upper 20s to mid
30s.

SUNDAY & MONDAY: Looking into Sunday and Monday, more seasonable
condition will continue on both days with highs mainly upper 40s to
low 50s. As the previously mentioned surface high drifts eastwards
by Sunday, it will be replaced by a lifting Colorado Low ejecting
out of the Rockies. Current 15.12z guidance has come into better
agreement with the track of the low progressing across the SD/NE
line from Monday night into Tuesday although the NAM favors a
slightly farther north solution. Nonetheless, the predominate p-type
continues to look like rain and/or drizzle for most areas to start
Monday evening. As temperatures cool overnight, could see a
transition to a rain-snow mix mainly north of I-90 with a focus
across southwestern MN and portions of the U.S. highway-14 corridor.
However, should see most of this activity gradually progress out of
our area by mid-morning on Tuesday. Shifting gears to amounts,
lingering uncertainty with the track has led to lower confidence in
exact amounts. That being said, most ensemble members continue to
have moderate confidence (40%-60%) in a 0.10" of an inch of QPF or
greater for most areas with the highest probabilities across
southwestern MN.

TUESDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, any lingering
precipitation will gradually dissipate during the first half of
Tuesday as a mid-level ridge moves in to replace the previously
mentioned system. From here, quieter and seasonable conditions
return through at least Wednesday as highs peak in the 40s to low
50s. As we return to southwesterly flow aloft by Thursday, all focus
will shift towards the four corners region as a well agreed upon
trough swings through the central and southern plains. While most of
the better dynamics should pass just to the south and southeast of
us, parts of our areas could get clipped by the northern part of the
system leading to increasing precipitation chances (20%-30% so far)
south of I-90 mainly across northwestern IA from Thursday into
Friday. While most of this should fall as rain given highs in the
40s, its worth mentioning that there is still high degrees of
uncertain with the system specifically with the track and timing. As
a result, if the system arrives earlier on Thursday our temperatures
and p-types could be affected. With this in mind, continue to
monitor your local forecast as key details could change.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1118 AM CST Sat Nov 15 2025

VFR conditions will persist this TAF period. As a mid-level deck
builds in this evening, a few sprinkles will be possible at KHON
and KFSD. Otherwise, northwesterly winds will become more light
and variable overnight to end the TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05