273
FXUS63 KFSD 021100
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
500 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Near to just above normal temperatures will continue into the
  work week along with quieter conditions.

- After mostly dry conditions through midweek, precipitation
  chances will increase towards the end of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 136 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

TODAY & TONIGHT: A warmer day ahead! Taking a look across the area,
mostly clear conditions continue this morning with a mid-level
ridging sitting overhead. As we head towards daybreak, expect the
quieter conditions to persist as increasing mid-level warm air
advection (WAA) and southerly surface winds lead to much warmer
conditions overall. As a result, highs will peak in the 50s to upper
60s with the warmest conditions west of the James River Valley.
Otherwise, southerly surface winds will become breezier as the SPG
tightens with the approaching cold front leading to wind gusts in
the 25-35 mph range. While soundings continue show limited saturation
with the cold front, can`t completely rule out a sprinkle or two
across areas north of I-90 this evening. Nonetheless, any resulting
accumulations would be limited (if any). Lastly, temperatures
will gradually decrease into the mid to upper 30s for the night.

MONDAY-WEDNESDAY: Looking into the new week, mostly quiet conditions
return as quasi-zonal flow sets up across the area. As a few pieces
of energy progress across Nebraska between Monday and Tuesday, could
see some scattered activity develop on radar as the northern stream
jet sets up overhead. Nonetheless, with dry sounding profiles
overall, most of this developing activity will likely be virga if
anything. From here, another cold front progresses through the
region between Tuesday night into Wednesday. However, not expecting
much precipitation-wise due to a lack of saturation in soundings.
With all this mind, the drier conditions will throughout the period
with highs mainly in the 50s to low 60s.

THURSDAY ONWARDS: Heading into the extended period, a more active
pattern returns by Thursday as a broad series of shortwaves ejects
out of the Rockies into the Northern Plains. While long-range
guidance starts to diverge in terms of the timing and placement of
features, there could be some intermittent chances through at least
Saturday given the amount of lift around. Depending on the
temperatures and timing of precipitation, p-types could vary between
rain, snow, or a mixture of the two. Otherwise, multiple pushes of
cold air advection (CAA) along with northwesterly surface winds will
help our overall temperatures gradually cool through Sunday. As a
result, highs will gradually decrease from the mid 50s to mid 60s by
Thursday to the 40s to low 50s by Sunday.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 455 AM CST Sun Nov 2 2025

VFR conditions will continue this TAF period. Taking a look at
satellite imagery, mostly clear conditions continue this
morning with no changes in site for the day. A strengthening
LLJ could lead to a few hours of LLWS at KSUX and portions of
southwestern MN this morning and this evening. However, this
will be the main aviation concern for the period. Otherwise,
breezy southerly winds will continue for the first half of the
day before a cold front shifts winds to the northwest to end the
TAF period.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...05
AVIATION...05