Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
Issued by NWS Sioux Falls, SD
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041 FXUS63 KFSD 220431 AFDFSD Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD 1031 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 .KEY MESSAGES... - Some patchy dense fog is possible this morning. Any fog that forms is expected to be shallow, and burn off shortly after sunrise. - Dry conditions are expected for the rest of the week and weekend. High temperatures will warm back to the 30s and 40s Friday through Sunday. - A colder holiday week is expected with high temperatures very likely (90%+ chance) to remain below 32 degrees F. Light precipitation is possible (40-70% chance) Wednesday and Thursday, though this chance can change with time. && .DISCUSSION... Issued at 236 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Quiet conditions persist across the forecast area this afternoon. Surface ridging is sliding through the Northern Plains, which is pushing the tightest surface pressure gradient (SPG) east of the area. This will put an end to the breezy conditions that locations east of I-29 are currently seeing by this evening. Overnight low temperatures look to fall to the teens to low 20s but could fall further if efficient radiational cooling is achieved. The main caveat stopping this is upper level cirrus that will push into the Northern Plains tonight. IF efficient radiation cooling is achieved tonight, fog will also be possible. Think that it will most likely be west of I-29 due to the recent snowpack that fell yesterday. Friday will see a continuation of quiet conditions as the previously mentioned surface ridging sits over the area. With upper level ridging aloft, high temperatures will warm to the mid 30s to upper 40s, warmest across south central South Dakota. With the riding in place, winds will be light and variable throughout the day. Low temperatures will fall to upper teens and 20s overnight. Dry conditions look to persist through the weekend due to lacking moisture across the area. However, an upper level jet will push into the region, resulting in warm air advection (WAA) aloft. The WAA will push 850 mb temperatures up to the single digits on Saturday and may reach up to the low teens on Sunday. Winds will be light, out of the southeast on Saturday but a surface trough will push through the area on Sunday, turning the winds to out of the northwest. This will bring a return of breezy winds with gusts up to about 30 mph possible. Low temperatures will fall to 20s and 30s Saturday night and teens to 20s Sunday night. A colder airmass looks to usher into the Northern Plains for the majority of next week. This airmass may be the first one to feel much more winter like as below average high temperatures are likely. Ensembles support this as they show a near 100% chance for temperatures to be below 32 degrees F Monday through Thursday. Winds look to be on the lighter side but any wind will result in cold wind chills, potential down to the teens F. While the beginning of next week looks dry, could see a return of precipitation on Wednesday and Thursday. As of now, any precipitation that may fall looks to be light, with only a 40-70% chance for exceeding a hundredth of an inch per ensemble analysis. Will certainly keep an eye on any light precipitation for this period of time. All in all, the holiday week looks to be cold with some potential for light precipitation right before and on Thanksgiving day. && .AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY/... Issued at 1030 PM CST Thu Nov 21 2024 Winds will be light and variable with VFR conditions for the period at the three TAF sites. A narrow north/south oriented deck of stratus is present over western Minnesota and Iowa. Under this deck MVFR ceilings around 2000 ft AGL are present. These clouds should slowly erode over the next few hours. Patchy dense fog is possible this morning, but confidence in formation is low due to a cirrus deck that looks to move into the area after 22.08Z. These high clouds may be enough to prevent fog formation. If any fog should develop, it is expected to be shallow and burn off shortly after sunrise. && .FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... SD...None. MN...None. IA...None. NE...None. && $$ DISCUSSION...AJP AVIATION...Meyers