906
FXUS63 KFSD 052311
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
511 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A light wintry mix continues into mid evening with light snow
  and light freezing drizzle - mainly north of Interstate 90 and
  east of Interstate 29. Additional accumulation of ice: a
  glaze to 0.01". Additional accumulation of Snow: a trace to
  0.1". Minor travel impacts to the evening commute possible.

- A potentially impactful system is expected to move through
  Friday night through Saturday night. A 60-100% probability for
  accumulating snow for locations along and north of I-90.
  Totals will increase as you move north.

- Temperatures will be near to slightly above average for the
  rest of this week, before trending below average next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 246 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: We find our region in the warm sector of an
approaching surface low pressure system. Slightly breezy
southerly winds are bringing northward moisture from the Gulf.
This warm, moist air is overriding an existing cold air mass and
producing some light freezing drizzle and snow showers.
Temperature profiles indicate subcloud dry air that is limiting
how much is making it to the surface. Accumulations as a result
are expected to be light. For freezing drizzle, a light glaze to
a hundredth. For snow, a dusting to a tenth. Despite the low
totals, afternoon travel impacts are possible. Please use
caution as you make your way. Lows for tonight will be in the
low to mid teens.

OVERNIGHT-THURSDAY: Snow clears our this evening. Overnight a cold
front will pass through the area from northwest to southeast. Winds
will turn northwesterly and gusts will increase to 25-30 mph with
occasional gusts to 35 mph over south central South Dakota.
Winds ease slightly after sunrise. A weak upper ridge and
surface high pressure slide into the area for Thursday. A push
of CAA will work to increase afternoon gusts to the 25-35 mph
range. In addition, a 40-50 kt 850 mb low level jet will be
present. Model soundings indicate potential to mix to that
level, which could result in occasional gusts to 40 mph. Areas
east of I-29 into southern Minnesota an Iowa will be located
under the strongest region of the low level jet, and will have
the most potential to mix down the stronger gusts. Winds drop
off quickly after sunset. Highs for Thursday will be in the
upper 20s along and north of Highway 14, and in the 30s and 40s
to the south. The warmest temperatures are expected along our
Missouri River counties. Lows will be in the single digits to
the teens.

FRIDAY-SATURDAY: A quiet day for Friday as the high pressure moves
east of the region. Light winds will become easterly, and afternoon
highs reach the 20s to 30s. Friday night into Saturday morning we
will watch an upper level wave move out of the Rockies and move
across northern Wyoming and southern Montana. Snow is expected to
move in from the west and spread southeastward. Most of the region
is expected to see some snow, but ensemble guidance keeps the
majority along and north of I-90. Here, there is a 60-100%
probability of exceeding 0.1" of liquid equivalent. While it is
still early for exact snow amounts, confidence is increasing in
areas north of I-90 seeing a couple inches of snow, with totals
increasing as you move north. Travel impacts are expected, with the
Winter Storm Severity Index indicating minor to moderate
impacts such as hazardous driving conditions due to reduced
visibility and snow covered roads. In the coming days, this
system could shift north or south, so keep an eye out for
updates.

SUNDAY-INTO NEXT WEEK: Snow clears out late Saturday night and into
Sunday morning. Sunday will be cool thanks to CAA behind the cold
front, only reaching the 20s. Lows are expected to fall into the
single digits above and below 0. Wind chills will be cold, in the
negative teens. Mid to long term guidance indicates an overall broad
troughing pattern through the first half of next week. There looks
to be a couple impulses possible that may bring additional rounds of
snow to the area. As uncertainty is high, have left NBM PoPs as is
for now.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 503 PM CST Wed Feb 5 2025

Light snow and freezing drizzle north of Interstate 90 and east
of Interstate 29 will diminish through the evening. IFR/MVFR
ceilings will decrease from west to east during the night as a
frontal boundary pushes across the area. Behind this front,
southerly will transition to northwesterly and increase -
gusting around 20 kts into early Thursday morning. Winds will
decrease a bit through mid to late morning on Thursday, picking
up and gusting 20 to 25 kts through the remainder of the
afternoon and evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...JM