713
FXUS63 KFSD 072328
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
628 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Outside of a very low risk of sprinkles this afternoon,
  persistent dry weather is expected to continue into Saturday.

- Temperatures near normal today will rise above normal into
  the weekend.

- Increasing southerly winds by the end of the week will lead
  to low fire danger risks. At this time critical red flag
  conditions are not expected.

- Rain chances Saturday through Monday continue, but coverage
  remains very uncertain. Rainfall amounts at this point favor
  low totals (less than 0.50").

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 141 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

THIS AFTERNOON: Temperatures continue to warm through the 60s this
afternoon, as winds are quite light.  However a few very weak
convergence areas, combined with very weak dPVA, may lead to
isolated sprinkles. Best convergence falls along a line from
Brookings to Spencer, so will include a low end mention of sprinkles
this afternoon.

TONIGHT:  Skies clear and winds turn light and variable, suggesting
that temperatures will drop even further than Monday night.
Have lowered temperatures, especially in valley areas where lows
may fall into the middle 30s once again. Patchy frost will be
possible in those valley areas by Wednesday morning, but at this
point not widespread enough for an advisory.

WEDNESDAY-THURSDAY: Winds turn southerly on Wednesday as mid-lvl
heights rise and modest return flow develops. Outside of an
increase in afternoon CU, the most noticeable impact Wednesday
will be high temperatures climbing into the 70s in most areas. A
VERY weak mid-lvl trough passes through the Tri-State area
Wednesday night into Thursday. While chances are quite low,
there remains an intersect between low-lvl moisture and the
convergence of the LLJ through the Tri-State area after midnight
and through daybreak. Wouldn`t rule out an isolated shower
developing into mid-morning Thursday mostly along or east of
I-29. A surface front approaches central South Dakota late
Thursday, allowing breezy afternoon winds to subside slightly by
the evening. Any overnight rain chances appears to have shifted
east of the CWA into Friday morning.

FRIDAY: The aforementioned surface front moves through the CWA by
Friday morning, allowing a bit more influence of surface high
pressure moving into the Northern Plains during the day. The shift
to a more northerly wind may limit the rise in temperatures
slightly, suggesting the NBM highs could be a bit too warm.
Regardless, dry conditions are expected into Saturday.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: The mid-lvl ridge axis shifts east of I-29 by
Saturday, but a slow eastward progression of the surface high
pressure over the Great Lakes may influence both temperatures and
winds through the day. Latest mid-lvl guidance continues to hint at
a slightly weaker, southeasterly to easterly wind component during
the day, as scattered showers try to develop and move northeast
through the area in the afternoon and evening. There remains a
6-hr variance in the arrival of precipitation, so those with
outdoor plans should continue to monitor the forecast.

Surface cyclogenesis over western South Dakota in response to
troughing moving into the Central Rockies will induce a stronger SPG
through the region on Sunday.  This will push the focus for the
strongest southerly winds into the daytime hours of Sunday, along
and ahead of an approaching late day front.  The 50 knot LLJ ahead
of this boundary could lead to isolated to scattered showers early
Sunday morning, but it appears most of the area may stay very
warm and dry until the passage of the cold front Sunday
evening/night.

Depending on the forward progression of the front, track of the
associated upper trough, and amount of lingering moisture, we could
see showers continue into Sunday.  However QPF is likely to stay on
the lower side with the 75th percentile of the GEFS/ECAM/GEPS all
suggesting less than 0.25-0.50" totals and most of this may be
scattered in nature. In fact, the ECMWF ensemble and EC AIFS remain
significantly higher with QPF than both the GFS/CMC platforms.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 627 PM CDT Tue Oct 7 2025

VFR conditions expected through the period, with wind the main
concern. Winds will be mainly light tonight starting out of the
northeast early, then gradually turning easterly and then
southeasterly with time. Winds will pick up through the day
tomorrow from central South Dakota to I-29. South-southeast
winds tomorrow will gust as high as 25-35 kts west of I-29, with
lighter gusts up to 20 kts along and east of I-29.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Dux
AVIATION...Samet