474
FXUS63 KFSD 050334
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1034 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Areas of light rain and snow will gradually end from west to
  east through the late night hours.

- Dry and seasonably cool for the weekend with occasionally
  breezy condition.

- Some low chances (<30%) for light rain midweek. Then a warming
  trend through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 236 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

TODAY: This afternoon we will see light, spotty rain showers slowly
transition to a rain/snow mix to all snow behind a cold front that
will pass through the area. Accumulations are expected to be light,
generally less than half an inch of snow, and a couple hundredths
liquid equivalent. Any snow is expected to melt rapidly as surface
temperatures are still above zero. Some minor impacts to visibility
may be possible as snow falls. Winds will become northerly with the
passage of the front and increase to 15-20 mph with gusts
around 25- 30 mph. Highs this afternoon will be a little below
average for this time of year, in the 40s and low 50s. Lows will
fall to the 20s.

SATURDAY-MONDAY: Clear to partly cloudy skies for the weekend, and
dry conditions. A little bit of a split in high temperatures
Saturday with areas to the east of I-29 a bit cooler thanks to CAA
behind the front. This area should see highs in the low to mid 40s.
Areas to the west will benefit from some afternoon WAA which will
help that area warm in to the upper 40s to low 50s. Lows for the
region will be in the 20s. Afternoon winds on Saturday will be
slightly breezy as the SPG tightens ahead of a midlevel shortwave.
Unidirectional flow through the mixed layer will bring down some
breezy gusts in the 20-25 mph range, with the highest gusts over
northwestern Iowa. Surface high pressure builds in overnight as an
upper ridge begins to shift east. Early Sunday morning winds become
westerly as the surface high drifts to the southeast. WAA will
increase 850 mb temperatures into the 2 to 6 degree C range. Another
day of unidirectional flow through the mixed layer will help to mix
down those warmer temperatures. Highs for Sunday will climb to the
mid 50s to low 60s. Lows will fall to the 20s. The upper ridge
continues to shift east Monday, with a large surface high situated
over central Canada. As the high sinks southward, winds at the
surface will become northeasterly around 10 mph. Within the ridge a
weak shortwave begins to ride through the base. As it approaches
Monday afternoon, winds will become marginally breezy due to the
tightening SPG over central South Dakota. Gusts of 20-25 mph are
possible. Weak CAA will cool midlevel temps back down to 0 to -4
degree range. As a result, Monday highs will be cooler, in the 40s
with low in the 20s.

TUESDAY and BEYOND: The previously mentioned "ridge rider" shortwave
moves through the region, bringing very low chances (<20% ensemble
probability) for precipitation. Winds continue to increase Tuesday
in response to the tightening SPG. Gusts in the afternoon will be
around25-30 mph. Additional chances for precipitation come with a
second shortwave Wednesday afternoon through Thursday. Weak midlevel
instability coupled with a weak 700-600 mb frontogenic band could
trigger some light showers. Thermal profiles indicate this would be
light rain. There is wide variance in the track and timing of
the wave. The GFS and EC keep rain confined mostly south of
I-90, while the CAN brings it much farther north. Will continue
to monitor the trends on this system. Impacts are expected to be
minor, with ensembles indicating a less than 60% probability of
0.01 inches of liquid, and less than 20% probability of 0.1
inches. Highs temperatures during this time will show a warming
trend, with 50s for Tuesday, 60s for Wednesday, and 60s and 70s
for Thursday. Friday conditions look to be dry, with highs again
in the 60s and 70s.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1030 PM CDT Fri Apr 4 2025

Areas of light rain and drizzle continue east of Interstate 29
this evening. Ceilings have lowered into the IFR/LIFR range in
some areas with this activity. This precipitation will continue
to push to the east, exiting the area shortly after 06Z. Skies
will clear overnight as the precipitation exits to the east,
with VFR conditions expected on Saturday. Northwesterly winds
will slowly diminish overnight, though will become gusty again
on Saturday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...AJP
AVIATION...JM