542
FXUS63 KFSD 241937
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
237 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Light rain showers will spread eastward along the South
  Dakota/Nebraska border this evening and overnight. Amounts
  will generally be a tenth of an inch or less.

- Sunday will be mostly dry and warmer with some peaks of
  sunshine. High temperatures will top out in the upper 60s to
  low 70s.

- Precipitation chances (20 to 50 percent) return Memorial Day
  and continue on and off through at least Thursday with below
  normal temperatures. Severe weather is not expected.

- A return to near or above normal temperatures is looking more
  likely Friday into next weekend with highs from the upper 70s
  to lower 80s.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 237 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

19Z radar shows a very narrow band of light rain showers/
sprinkles from roughly Huron to Jackson. This band has been
slowly dropping south through the day and appears to be tied to
some very weak 700 hPa frontogenesis. Expect this trend to
continue through the rest of this afternoon with any one area
perhaps picking up a hundredth or two of rain.

Attention then turns to this evening and overnight as 700 to 600
hPa frontogenesis increases across central NE northward to the
SD/NE border. Given a saturated column and weak ripples of
energy moving through west-northwest flow aloft, expect
additional showers to develop and expand eastward through the
night. Highest precipitation chances (50-60 percent) exist along
and south of a line from Gregory to Yankton to Sioux City.
Rainfall will be light with up to a tenth of an inch possible.

Surface high pressure builds across the region on Sunday,
resulting in a gradual east to west drying trend with
increasing sunshine. Increased solar and 925 hPa temperatures
rising 1-3 Celsius compared to today will allow afternoon highs
to climb into the upper 60s to lower 70s. Winds will be light
from the east.

Memorial Day through Thursday will see the establishment of a
stubborn 500 hPa closed low across the Northern Plains. Impacts
to sensible weather include more clouds than sun, below normal
temperatures, and periodic rain chances (20-50 percent). No one
day or period will be a wash-out by any means, but variation in
forecast guidance results in broad brushed POPs. While an
isolated thunderstorm is possible given up to 100-200 J/kg of
MUCAPE, there is high confidence there will be no severe weather
as deep moisture/instability remains bottled up across the deep
south through the week.

Aforementioned low finally moves out Friday into next weekend.
Most noticeable impact will be to temperatures with highs rising
back into the 70s and low 80s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SUNDAY/...
Issued at 1230 PM CDT Sat May 24 2025

Outside of a few sprinkles or very brief rain showers, KHON/KFSD
will remain dry through the period. KSUX, on the other hand,
will see increasing chances for rain showers later this evening
and overnight. Latest guidance suggests ceilings at all TAF
airfields should remain above 3000 ft agl. Light (10 kts or
less) easterly surface winds will continue through 25.18Z.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...Rogers