170
FXUS63 KFSD 242249
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
449 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...

- A very good (60-80%) chance for a band of light rain/snow
  from south central South Dakota into central Minnesota during
  the late afternoon and evening. Snowfall amounts most likely
  will remain below 0.5" most locations, but there is a moderate
  (40%) probability of around 1.0" near the Highway 14
  corridor, especially on the SD side.

- Below to well below normal temperatures move in Monday and
  persist through the Thanksgiving holiday week. Confidence is
  high (>80%) that temperatures will remain below freezing from
  Thanksgiving onward, with moderate (40-60%) chances that highs
  will not reach 20F in some areas on Friday-Saturday. Friday
  morning and Saturday morning wind chills below zero most
  locations.

- Light precipitation chances remain low, with chances for light
  snow/flurries peaking at 10-20% Wednesday night and again
  Friday night into Saturday. Those with more distant travel
  plans will want to monitor forecast trends though, with higher
  precipitation chances south of I-80 and in North
  Dakota/northern Minnesota during the holiday travel period.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 217 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

A fairly strong (125 knot) jet streak will move from the Central
Rockies into NE and southern SD this evening. As this jet max moves
onto the Plains colder air in the low levels will begin to surge
southward, with an expansion of snow vs. rain potential. Many of the
newest model runs have come in with a bit more snow, mainly close to
highway 14, but generally less than a couple of inches. Will bump
amounts in mostly Kingsbury and Beadle counties to 1-1.5" of snow,
with quickly decreasing amounts to the south towards I-90. Farther
south saturation aloft is more difficult so mainly drizzle is
expected, which would be over far southeast SD, northeast NE and
northwest IA. The main thing to watch for in this area is if
temperatures drop below 32 with drizzle some slick surfaces will be
possible on Monday morning. Rigth now it looks like the colder air
lags and comes in with the cold front, so the icing threat is
minimal. Otherwise cold air will spill into the area through the
night, with early afternoon temperatures in the teens across western
ND expected to dive south. Lows should be about that, lower 20s in
northwest IA to the mid teens in central SD.

A bit on the cold side Monday morning with wind chills in the single
digits. Northwest winds will likely gust 25 to 35 mph but gradually
diminish through the day.

High pressure will slowly drift east Monday night into Tuesday which
will result in below normal temperatures. Lows in the single digits
in areas with any snow cover and teens elsewhere. Highs should
rebound back into the 30s north of I-90 with upper 30s and 40s to
the south.

The next wave which could bring patchy light snow will move through
Tuesday night into Wednesday and drag down some colder air again.
Not much model agreement on the snow potential, but the main message
is any snow would be light. Highs on Wednesday will be in the 20s
and 30s.

The colder air continues to nose south through the weekend with
highs Thanksgiving Day and Friday in the 20s, then possibly the
teens and lower 20s Saturday. Wind chill values below zero are
likely Friday morning and Saturday morning. Will also be watching a
system Saturday that could bring a band of light snow with just a
small chance for a more impactful snow, but for now too far out to
grab on to anything. Also the type of system that could easily slide
southwest of the area with cold high pressure in place across the
area.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY/...
Issued at 445 PM CST Sun Nov 24 2024

MVFR and IFR ceilings will reside across the area this evening
before decreasing from west to east late tonight. In addition,
light snow is expected to develop across the area, with lowest
visibility occurring north of Interstate 90. Any light snow is
expected to depart the area after 09Z tonight. Winds will be
out of the northwest through the period, gusting around 20 to
25 kts into late Monday afternoon.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...JM