742
FXUS63 KFSD 070327
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
1027 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- Slightly cooler Wednesday with a 20 percent chance for
  afternoon showers mainly along the Highway 20 corridor.

- Thursday through Saturday will be warm and dry with highs from
  the upper 70s into the lower 80s.

- Very warm and breezy Sunday into the next week. Expect daily
  highs in the 80s with some locations approaching 90 degrees.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 226 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

Under mostly sunny skies, 20Z surface analysis shows a very
weak surface boundary/cold front from roughly Gregory to Huron
with temperatures to the west in the upper 60s to low 70s and
temperatures to the east in the upper 70s to low 80s. This
boundary will sag south and east through the evening and
overnight with the primary impact to sensible weather being
slightly cooler temperatures on Wednesday. Surface winds
Wednesday will also pick up a bit behind the front and in
response to the strong Hudson Bay high with northeast breezes up
to 25 mph.

12Z GFS is more aggressive in bringing wrap around showers to
areas south of I-90 Wednesday afternoon/evening in association
with KS/OK surface low. However, it appears to be an outlier
compared to the drier NAM/ECMWF/GEM. Will favor the drier
solutions at this time given unfavorable northeast surface
winds and questions on the amount of available moisture. For
now, will keep 20 POPs in the vicinity of the Hwy 20 corridor.

Thursday through Saturday, cut-off low energy across the Central
Plains slowly drifts southward, while northern stream energy
impacts the eastern Great Lakes into the mid-Atlantic. Closer to
home, 500 hPa ridging reasserts itself from the southwest CONUS
into the Northern Plains. Sensible weather impact will be continued
warm and dry conditions with increasing temperatures, especially
into the weekend when ensembles show increasing probabilities
(50-60 percent) of exceeding 80 degrees, especially across
southeast South Dakota.

Sunday into early next week, the ridge axis move slowly eastward,
allowing temperatures to increase further. Given this pattern,
will favor the warmer ECMWF compared to the GFS, giving daily
highs well into the 80s with some areas flirting with the 90
degree mark by next Monday/Tuesday. Dry conditions will be the
rule with no real meaningful precipitation in the seven-day
forecast period.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z THURSDAY/...
Issued at 1018 PM CDT Tue May 6 2025

VFR conditions will persist for the rest of the TAF period.
Taking a look at satellite imagery, high clouds continue to
lift northeast ahead of an approaching system this evening.
While this will likely lead to overcast skies for the majority
of the day on Wednesday, any developing precipitation chances
will likely be isolated to areas along and south of highway-20
mostly just affecting KSUX during the late afternoon to early
evening. Lastly, light northeasterly surface winds overnight
will likely increase by Wednesday afternoon with wind gusts
between 15-25 mph possible through the early evening.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...Rogers
AVIATION...05