994
FXUS63 KFSD 101912
AFDFSD

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Sioux Falls SD
212 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.KEY MESSAGES...

- The next several days should see limited potential for
  hazardous weather.

- Wednesday night into Thursday morning may see a few
  thunderstorms, with the better chance closer to highway 14.

- Thursday into Saturday will likely see temperatures and dew
  points climb back to above normal with highs in the upper 80s
  to mid 90s and dew points in the 70s.

- With more instability into the area late week into the
  weekend may see some strong thunderstorm activity, but model
  agreement at this point is pretty low.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 204 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Scattered thunderstorms develop along the cold front settling south
across northwest IA this morning, but affects appeared minor with
mainly brief heavy rain and lightning. Otherwise the remainder of
the area has seen drier and more pleasant summer conditions with
afternoon temperatures from the upper 70s to lower 80s and dew
points in the upper 50s to mid 60s. This front is finally getting a
better push to the southeast as the low pressure to the north moves
east. Other than a little moisture left behind around 850 mb, the
area continues to dry a bit so showers and thunderstorms are not
expected. A few soundings do point to some enhanced cumulus possible
this afternoon into the evening if this small wedge of moisture does
exist, but likely not enough to produce showers or thunderstorms.

Otherwise surface high pressure settle southeast overnight which
should allow for cooler conditions with lows from the upper 50s to
lower 60s fairly common. Some patchy fog, especially in low lying
areas, will again be possible on Monday morning.

Monday should prove to be mainly dry, but model soundings do
indicate the potential for some weak showers with a nice inverted V
sounding below cloud level, so if any showers can develop a few
gusts of 30 to 40 mph will be possible. Highs will be back into the
80s everywhere Monday, possibly as warm as 90 in central SD.

A relatively strong wave moves from ND into northern MN Monday night
into Tuesday morning, which will swing a cool front through the
area. On Monday evening there could be an isolated shower or
thunderstorm associated with the incoming front, with the better
chances near highway 14. Still too low of a chance to mention
however. The only other thing to watch for will be the potential for
some gustier winds on Tuesday morning with the CAA as the front
passes. Current winds forecast winds are showing gusts around 10 to
15 mph, but could see some gusts of 20-25 mph if the timing of the
CAA pans out.

Tuesday into Wednesday looks to be dry. Northwest flow aloft will
give way to weak ridging which should limit any shower or
thunderstorm potential. Highs Tuesday will be seasonally warm in the
lower to mid 80s with highs climbing on Wednesday into mainly the
mid 80s to around 90.

By Wednesday night into Thursday a wave will pass to the north,
increasing the LLJ and bring the next chance for showers and
thunderstorms. With the focus of the LLJ to the north and the wave
to the north in all likelihood any thunderstorm activity will remain
to the north, but some isolated to scattered storms will be possible
with the better chances near highway 14. Model soundings do indicate
the potential for some stronger capping which will be a limiting
factor.

Friday into the weekend will see westerly flow aloft become
ridging aloft which will bring some very warm conditions to the
area. Model agreement on this pattern is not great, but given
the expected heat and instability there will be a few chances
for thunderstorms, just low confidence on when and where at this
point.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z MONDAY/...
Issued at 1208 PM CDT Sun Aug 10 2025

Isolated thunderstorms will remain possible in northwest IA
through about 19z. Smoke will move into northeast SD and likely
reach areas as far south as I-90 through the afternoon. For now
the visibility is only expected to drop to 5-6 miles near
highway 14. Otherwise, some patchy fog will be possible late
tonight into early Monday morning with the better chances in
northwest IA.

&&

.FSD WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
MN...None.
IA...None.
NE...None.

&&

$$

DISCUSSION...08
AVIATION...08