285
FXUS65 KFGZ 111612
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
912 AM MST Tue Mar 11 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers develop across central Arizona
late this evening and continue into Wednesday, with some snowfall
accumulation above around 6500 feet. A more impactful winter
storm is then expected Thursday into early Friday. Remaining cool
with a chance of light rain and snow Saturday, then mild and
drier weather returns Sunday into Monday.

&&

.UPDATE...Upper level Low that will be the next rain/snow maker
is still sitting off the southern California coast. It will
continue to weaken and cross Arizona tonight as an open wave.
Precipitation amounts and timing look about the same so no updates
needed to the forecast package at this time.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /439 AM MST/...An active weather pattern is setting up for the rest
of this week, with an additional storm system possible next week
as well. Much needed precipitation is expected following our very
dry start to the winter season. First up is a closed low that is
approaching southern California this morning. This low is bringing
with it deep moisture as it tracks across central and southern
Arizona later this evening through Wednesday morning. This is not
too cold of a system as it will be weakening as it arrives, but
enough large scale lift and orographics will be present for fairly
substantial precipitation mainly for Yavapai/Gila Counties, the
Mogollon Rim, and the White Mountains. Total precipitation is
generally forecast to be in the 0.40"-0.80" range. Snow levels
will fall to 6500 to 7000 feet, and a few inches of wet snow is
expected along the Mogollon Rim into the White Mountains where
Winter Weather Advisories are in effect later this evening through
Wednesday morning.

Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning - the storm system
moves east of the state with brief ridging. However, plentiful low
level moisture lingers along/south of the Mogollon Rim so low
clouds and a few sprinkles/flurries will continue.

Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning - a winter storm
is forecast to cross the state. Not much has changed in the
forecast with this storm for several days, with fairly high
confidence in a period of moderate to heavy rain and snow, along
with strong southwest winds. Confidence is increasing that we will
reach warning level snowfall amounts (8+ inches) above 6000 feet
from the Kaibab Plateau along the Mogollon Rim into the White
Mountains. So we issued a Winter Storm Watch for these areas valid
Thursday afternoon through early Friday morning. Snow levels will
start around 6500 feet but will fall through the day and evening
to 4000 feet or a bit lower. So accumulating snow will affect even
lower elevation areas, and additional Winter Weather Advisories
may eventually be issued for these areas. See our winter weather webpage
at weather.gov/fgz/winterweather for a detailed look at the
forecast for your location. Southwest winds of 20-30 mph with
gusts 40-50 mph will also develop Thursday bringing the threat of
blowing and drifting snow. Now would be a good time to consider
changing travel plans across the area to avoid the storm system.

Friday afternoon through Saturday - the forecast has changed for
this period, as another shortwave is now expected to dive
southeast across the region, keeping cold conditions and a chance
of additional snow above 4000 feet or so. Amounts look fairly
light at this time, in the 1-3" range mainly above 6000 feet.

Fair weather finally returns Sunday into Monday with dry and
warmer conditions. The next storm may arrive just beyond the 7-day
forecast, around next Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 11/12Z through Wednesday 12/12Z...Expect VFR
conditions through 00Z-02Z Wednesday, then areas of MVFR from
lower CIGS and rain/snow showers mainly along/south of the I-40
corridor thereafter. Winds are light through 17Z-18Z Tuesday,
becoming S-SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts by the afternoon.
Winds decrease to 5-10 kts overnight.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 12/12Z through Friday 14/12Z...Continued areas
of MVFR from lower CIGS and rain/snow showers south of the I-40
corridor through Wednesday morning. A brief return to VFR conditions
is possible Wednesday afternoon-night, before significant flight
restrictions Thursday with WDSPRD MVFR/IFR and areas of LIFR over
higher terrain. Winds are SW 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts
Wednesday, becoming 20-30 kts with gusts up to 45 kts Thursday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday and Wednesday...A low pressure system will
enter Western Arizona Tuesday afternoon and reach New Mexico
Wednesday Morning, bringing areas of rain and snow. Precipitation
will spread from west to east, mostly along/south of the I-40
corridor. A cooling trend will occur with gusty winds each day.
Afternoon winds will be south through southwest 15-25 mph with gusts
up to 35 mph each day.

Thursday through Saturday...A stronger low pressure system will
enter the region, bringing widespread rain and snow Thursday into
Friday morning. Lingering scattered showers will persist through
Saturday. Temperatures will be well below normal through the period
with gusty winds. The windiest conditions are expected along/north
of the Mogollon rim, with southwest winds 25-35 mph and gusts up to
55 mph on Thursday. Winds remain elevated but decrease a bit each
afternoon, turning westerly on Friday and northwesterly on Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Watch from Thursday afternoon through late Thursday
night for AZZ004-015>017.

Winter Weather Advisory from 9 PM this evening to 11 AM MST
Wednesday for AZZ015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory from midnight tonight to 11 AM MST
Wednesday for AZZ017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Bernhart/JJ
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff