306
FXUS65 KFGZ 291733
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1033 AM MST Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warming temperatures and mainly dry conditions, with
increasing moisture expected over the next several days. Isolated to
scattered showers around the White Mountains today, then more
widespread shower and thunderstorm activity sets in through the
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Monday...A ridge will continue to
build across the Desert Southwest through Monday, with a mostly dry
airmass remaining across the region. Continued above normal
temperatures with daytime highs exceeding 110 degrees in the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon. The heat peaks on Monday, with
temperatures starting to cool and cloud cover increasing through the
rest of the week (more on that below). The Extreme Heat Warning
remains in effect for areas below 4000 feet in the Grand Canyon
through Tuesday. While we do not have headlines up for other parts
of the forecast area, keep in mind it will still be hot and to use
caution if spending time outside. Drink plenty of water, wear a hat
and sunscreen, and try to refrain from strenuous activity during the
hottest parts of the day. Continue to remain safe out there friends!

Lingering moisture continues to push in from the south and this will
aid in the development of some high-based showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon near the White Mountains. Showers will become more
scattered over the White Mountains and into the eastern Mogollon Rim
on Monday as we start to see better moisture advection in the
building southerly flow. Clouds will start increase across the higher
terrain today, though we may not see much more than virga across the
Mogollon Rim as the low levels remain very dry. Dry lightning
remains possible on Monday across eastern Arizona.

Tuesday through Thursday...The ridge starts to set up shop towards
the Four Corners/New Mexico, putting us in a good spot for more
widespread showers and thunderstorms. Additionally, a trough digs
down along the California coast, cutting off and slowly pushing to
the east. The flow between the high to the east and the trough to
west will increase the southerly flow and allow for moisture to
stream into the region. Clouds will increase across the region and
we will see showers and thunderstorms become widespread, especially
on Wednesday and Thursday. Dry lightning is still a concern on
Tuesday as we await the arrival of the bulk of the moisture.

Friday through the weekend...As we go towards the end of the week,
the trough/low starts to weaken. As it lifts, we could see a slight
shift to more of a westerly flow and this could potentially bring in
some drier air and less storm activity. Several more troughs look to
develop behind the departing trough and there is some uncertainty as
to whether these will pass to the north of our area and keep us
drier. The high looks to remain set up over the southern United
States, though it does waffle to the east and then back to the west
at times. Best chances for precipitation may still be over eastern
areas but still time to see how things unfold as we go through the
week.

&&

.AVIATION...Sunday 29/18Z through Monday 30/18Z...Primarily VFR
conditions are expected to continue. There`s a 10-20% of isolated
-SHRA/-TSRA over the mountains from KFLG - KSOW, with erratic
 outflow wind gusts being the main concern. Smoke from a wildfire
 could reduce visibility for areas near KRQE. W through NW winds
 5-15 kts with gusts near 20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Monday 30/18Z through Wednesday 02/18Z...Mainly VFR
expected with an increasing trend in thunderstorm coverage each
day. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA Monday over the mountains,
increasing and spreading west across all of northern AZ
Tuesday/Wednesday. S-SW winds 10-20 kts each day. Gusty and
erratic winds in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Monday...Warm and dry conditions continue.
A slight chance of high-based showers and thunderstorms near the
White Mountains this afternoon, spreading west Monday. Dry lightning
risk is highest on Monday. Expect SW-W winds 5-15 mph with gusts to
20-25 mph each afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds are likely in the
vicinity of storms. Afternoon minimum RH values 5-15% both days.

Tuesday through Thursday...Increasing moisture through Thursday with
scattered to widespread showers and thunderstorms. Dry lightning
risk is highest on Tuesday. Afternoon minimum RH values 15-25%
Tuesday, increasing to 20-35% Wednesday and 25-40% Thursday. S-SW
winds 5-15 mph with gusts to 20-25 mph each day. Gusty and erratic
winds are likely in the vicinity of storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff