815
FXUS65 KFGZ 222343
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
443 PM MST Thu May 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry and warm weather continues through the rest of the
week with breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure across the region today has brought some
of the warmest temperatures of the season along with some breezy
afternoon winds. With very little cloud cover and light winds
expected overnight, we should radiate pretty well and overnight lows
will drop down into the 30s across the higher terrain and in the 40s-
50s through the rest of the forecast area.

A weak shortwave will push down into the area on Friday, with a cool
front moving through on Saturday. Winds will increase ahead of the
trough which will allow for winds to become a bit gusty through
Friday. However, the the best energy lags behind and moves across
through the overnight hours into early Saturday. This will keep
winds below advisory levels through some gusts around 30-40 mph are
possible. Even with the best energy overnight, we won`t see mixing
occur and surface winds will remain on the light side. The trough is
not moving in a favorable way to bring any decent moisture to the
area so the best we can expect from it is an increase in cloud
cover. Perhaps some virga will be present but with such dry low
levels, it is highly unlikely we see anything reach the ground. The
cool front will pass through the region on Saturday, bringing along
some slightly cooler temperatures and continued breezy afternoon
winds.

The trough pulls away on Sunday, giving way to another high pressure
system. Temperatures will remain near average with breezy afternoon
winds, as is typical this time of year. Models show varying
solutions for how the week will unfold, whether it be a trough from
the north/west or a low from from the Pacific. Either way, there me
a pinching of the ridge over the area which will allow for a bit of
moisture to sneak in from the east. Very slight chances for
precipitation across our eastern most zones toward the second half
of next week. Otherwise, expect it to remain mostly dry across the
region.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 23/00Z through Saturday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
outside of localized reduced visibility due to fire activity.
Winds light from the south to southwest overnight then after 16Z,
becoming southwest at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts.


OUTLOOK...Saturday 24/00Z through Monday 26/00Z...VFR conditions
outside of localized reduced visibility due to fire activity.
Friday night, winds from the south to southwest at 5-15 kts. On
Saturday, winds becoming southwest at 10-20 kts with gusts up to
30 kts by the afternoon, remaining gusty locally downwind of
terrain Saturday night, light and VRB elsewhere. Sunday will see
lighter winds from the west to southwest at 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Saturday...Near-Critical fire weather
expected each day due to elevated winds and low humidity, primarily
in the Little Colorado River Valley. Afternoon winds are southwest
10-20 mph with gusts 25-35 mph each day. Minimum RH is 5-10% each
afternoon.

Sunday through Tuesday...Warm and dry. Winds are west 5-15 mph on
Sunday, becoming southwest on Monday then south-southwest on
Tuesday. Minimum RH is 5-15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff