551
FXUS65 KFGZ 230015
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
515 PM MST Fri Nov 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...An unsettled, but mainly dry weather pattern develops
across northern Arizona for this weekend. Plan on cooler
temperatures and gustier southwest winds each day. As we head into
next week, southwest winds remain breezy each afternoon with
seasonal temperatures expected. Shower chances remain in the
forecast Monday through Wednesday towards the north, however, any
interruptions to Thanksgiving holiday travel will likely be
minimal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Tranquil weather conditions are taking place across
northern Arizona this afternoon with the ridge axis just towards
our east. Most locations are experiencing light and variable
winds, for the most part, with sunny conditions. The temperatures
are the most noticeable weather element of the day with 60s in the
High Country and 70s in the lower valleys as you head to Phoenix.
These equate to temperatures 10-15 degrees above average for this
time of year. It`s a bit cooler across portions of northern
Coconino and Mohave counties thanks to a colder airmass
infiltrating from the west-northwest as a strong low pressure
system continues to impact the West Coast.

As the ridge of high pressure continues to retreat towards the
east into Saturday, heights begin to fall and the pressure
gradient tightens across the Southwest. Plan on a return of
breezier southwest winds for Saturday afternoon with gusts of
15-30 mph. Daytime temperatures are still forecast to be above
average, however, roughly 5 degrees cooler compared to today`s
highs. By Sunday, more seasonable temperatures arrive with gustier
southwest winds, 30-40 mph, as an area of low pressure passes by
towards the north. Even though moisture from Saturday onward
develops an increasing trend, much of the beneficial moisture and
precipitation will remain confined to states north of Arizona
during this time. However, can`t rule out some isolated rain and
snow showers along the AZ/UT border, including over the Kaibab
Plateau, for Sunday afternoon and evening.

As we head into the shortened work week, the synoptic flow over
the Southwest becomes more zonal with another storm system likely
for much of the West Coast. Moisture will remain abundant Monday
through Wednesday, however, atmospheric forcing looks to be
lacking thanks to the more stable flow environment. As this second
storm system progresses through northern California and Nevada,
slight warm air advection could result in some isolated rain and
mountain snow showers late Monday into Tuesday, mostly for
locations near the AZ/UT border again. Forcing becomes a bit more
available late Tuesday into Wednesday as the storm`s cold front
brushes by towards the north, tracking through the Four Corners
region. At this time, our current forecast has slight chance POPs
(15-25%) from Prescott to the White Mountains Tuesday night into
Wednesday with greater chances (30-45%) for locations along and
north of I-40. Confidence is moderate at this time and depends on
overall moisture availability and track of the low pressure and
associated cold front. One scenario could be for the cold front
to track too far north and east of Arizona resulting in lower
precipitation chances overall and a second scenario could be for
the front to dig deeper into Arizona, allowing for greater forcing
and higher precipitation chances. Went with the "middle-of-the-
road" approach for this forecast package with the majority of the
GEFS and ECMWF Ens members suggesting some QPF (0.1-0.2") during
this time.

For the Thanksgiving holiday, it should "feel" like Thanksgiving
with cool, seasonable temperatures, north to northeast winds, and
mostly clear to partly cloudy skies. Conditions look to be drier
with low chances (5-10%) for any precipitation at this time. The
post-holiday travel weather outlook looks okay for now, however,
things can change quickly. Stay tuned.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 23/00Z through Sunday 24/00Z...VFR conditions
with light and variable winds less than 10 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 24/00Z through Tuesday 26/00Z...Mainly VFR
conditions expected. ISO -SHRA/-SHSN mainly north of KGCN late
Sunday into Monday. SW winds 15-25 kts with gusts 30-35 kts
between 18Z-03Z each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Mainly dry conditions
continue across northern Arizona through Sunday. Southwest winds
around 15-25 mph on Saturday increasing to 20-35 mph on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...Increasing chances for rain and snow
showers Monday and Tuesday as low pressure moves in from the west.
Best chances are along and north of I-40 with chances decreasing
on Wednesday. Southwest winds around 10-20 mph for Monday through
Wednesday with some locally higher gusts.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...LaGuardia
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff