568
FXUS65 KFGZ 051839
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1139 AM MST Thu Jun 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Another weak trough will impact the state today,
bringing additional showers and thunderstorms mostly north of
I-40. Warm and dry weather is forecast to return Friday through
much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Lingering moisture and instability are combining with
a broad Western US trough to produce scattered showers and thunderstorms
this afternoon, most numerous in northwest Arizona. The activity
is fairly slow moving, leading to a threat of some localized heavy
rainfall of 1"/hr or a bit higher leading to localized flooding.
This will persist through early evening before tapering off. Starting
Friday, the main part of the trough will head east of the region,
with another portion cutting off over the eastern Pacific. Heights
will increase over Arizona as strong ridging to the south noses
up in our direction. This general pattern is forecast to persist
through the weekend and into next week. Daytime high temperatures
will warm to near normal Friday, then reach 4-8 degrees above normal
through at least the middle of next week. Winds will be light through
the weekend, then increase a bit to 10-20 mph next week as the closed
low off the west coast opens up and moves eastward through the Great
Basin/Utah. The airmass will also dry out, but not as much as it can
this time of year - dewpoints are forecast to remain in the 20s and
30s.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 05/18Z through Friday 06/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions are expected. Be on the lookout for scattered
TSRA/SHRA, mainly north of a KGCN-KRQE line. Local MVFR
conditions with gusty and erratic winds possible with TSRA/SHRA.
Outside of storms, expect west to southwest winds 5-15 kts.

OUTLOOK...Friday 06/18Z through Sunday 08/18Z...VFR conditions and
west to southwest winds at 5-15 kts are forecast.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Look for drier and warmer
weather. West to southwest winds at 5-15 mph are forecast each
afternoon. Minimum RH values falling into the 10-20% range by
Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Dry and warm weather will continue. Look
for west to northwest winds at 5-15 mph on Sunday, becoming
southwest to west at 10-20 mph on Monday and Tuesday. Minimum RH
values falling to 5-15% each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...McCollum

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff