724
FXUS65 KFGZ 050923
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
223 AM MST Wed Feb 5 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Above normal temperatures are on tap for the next
several days. However, a very weak cooling trend will occur
through the forecast period. Breezy southwest winds expected
through at least the end of the week, and slight chances for
precipitation could return across the Kaibab Plateau on Friday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...You probably noticed the windy conditions yesterday
(Tuesday), and a few locations are remaining breezy during the
overnight hours as well. These lingering elevated winds are
helping keep overnight lows on the warming side, with many
locations currently in the 40 and 50 degree range. Today will be
another day full of seasonably warm temperatures, as above normal
pressure heights remain over the Southwest, but these pressure
gradients are staying rather tight, keeping breezy southwest winds
in the forecast through at least the end of the week.

An area of low pressure will continue to impact much of the West
Coast, but precipitation does not appear to push far enough south
to make a major impact to our CWA. At best, a few showers could be
possible across the AZ/UT border Friday afternoon through
Saturday morning. Outside of the weak moisture push, temperatures
will slightly fall from the incoming storm system, but daytime
highs are projected to still land in the above normal range.

Another shortwave looks to slide through the state early next
week, but this system appears to be dry. The main items to note
will be a continued cooling trend and additional breezy winds.

Looking beyond our forecast period, model guidance is hinting at a
stronger storm system rolling across much of the Western United
States. Timing is all over the board right now, and precipitation
amounts are very inconsistent too. We`ll keep an eye on this as we
progress through the week, but a lot could change between now and
then, so don`t get your hopes up just yet!


&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 05/06Z through Thursday 06/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Sfc winds S-SW10-15kts overnight, with localized gusts
as high as 20kts. Winds increase again to 10-20g25-30kts AFT 18Z-20Z
Wednesday and decrease again AFT 02Z Thursday.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 06/06Z through Saturday 08/06Z...Expect VFR
conditions. Daily S-SW winds at 10-20g25-30kts. ISOLD-SCT -SHRA/SHSN
possible NW of a KCMR-KGCN line Friday afternoon/night. Flight
restrictions not expected.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Thursday...The dry pattern continues
across northern Arizona with temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above
average. Afternoon humidity will remain above 15% each day with
moderate to good recoveries each night. Southwest winds will
continue each afternoon with gusts of 20 to 35 mph.

Friday through Sunday...Near average temperatures through the
period. Isolated showers are possible over the Kaibab Plateau on
Friday...otherwise dry conditions are expected. Southwest winds 15
to 20 MPH with gusts up to 30 MPH on Friday. Lighter west-southwest
winds are expected for this weekend, 10 to 20 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...MAS

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff