306
FXUS65 KFGZ 192322
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
422 PM MST Wed Aug 19 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Expect temperatures 5-10 degrees above average through
the rest of the week. Starting today thunderstorm coverage begins
to increase across the area as additional monsoon moisture is
drawn across the state. A bit cooler temperatures arrive for the
weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Hot temperatures under a high pressure feature will
peak today with some locations approaching record highs. An
Extreme Heat Warning is in effect for areas below 4,000 feet in
the Grand Canyon through Thursday night, so use caution if you
hike below the Grand Canyon Rim. Limited monsoon moisture returns
today with scattered activity though this afternoon and early
evening staying mostly along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains.
There remains a slight chance for these storms to move into the
lower elevations of Gila and Yavapai County by this evening.

As the second half of the week progresses the high pressure area
shifts further to the east which will bring in more monsoon
moisture across the state. Look for POPs to rise and coverage to
increase Thursday into the weekend with most of the area seeing a
chance for thunderstorms. Temperatures Thursday will be slightly
cooler but close to Wednesday`s highs, but as moisture and clouds
increase, temperatures trend downward each day and get close to
normal or just above normal by the weekend. As storm coverage
increases and soils once again become wet, flash flood concerns
will be on the rise late this week and into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 20/00Z through Friday 21/00Z...Primarily
VFR conditions. ISOLD-SCT SHRA/TSRA along/south of a KCMR-KFLG-
KSJN line through 04Z-06Z. Stronger storms may bring brief
MVFR/IFR conditions. Storm activity decreases late tonight,
increasing again after 18Z Thu. Highest coverage Thu along/south
of a KGCN-KFLG-KSJN line, with isolated storms farther north.
Winds SW-NW 5-15kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven
overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near storms.


OUTLOOK...Friday 21/00Z through Sunday 23/00Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. SCT-NMRS SHRA/TSRA each afternoon and evening, with
the highest coverage on Friday. Stronger storms may bring brief
MVFR/IFR conditions. Winds W-NW 5-15kts each day, light and
variable or terrain driven overnight. Gusty and erratic winds near
storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Scattered to numerous showers
and thunderstorms each day with the best coverage on Friday. The
primary hazards are lightning, gusty and erratic winds, and brief
heavy rain. Outside of storms expect seasonably warm temperatures.
Winds are variable at 5-15 mph on Thursday, becoming southwest
through west on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Near to slightly above normal
temperatures. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorm
coverage each afternoon through late evening. Winds southwest
through west at 5-15 mph each day, though gusty and erratic winds
possible near storms.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 8 PM MST Thursday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Zanker
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff