151
FXUS65 KFGZ 011704
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1004 AM MST Fri Aug 1 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions continue through early
next week. Slight chances for showers/storms each afternoon, with
the best chances across the White Mountains and higher terrain.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure continues to remains across the Desert
Southwest this morning, settling over southern Arizona today and
staying in place through the weekend. This pattern will keep us
mostly dry through the weekend as we continue to see limited
moisture in the region. The high starts to shift to the east early
in the week, which may bring a slight increase in moisture towards
the middle of next week.

Another day with mostly dry conditions and afternoon southwest
breezes. Conditions have dried out a bit and any showers or storms
that do develop today will be mainly across the White Mountains,
possibly extending into the eastern Mogollon Rim. However, recent hi-
res guidance has backed off from previous runs so it may be pretty
isolated across the area today. The main hazards of any storms would
be brief heavy downpours and gusty/erratic outflow winds. As we head
through the weekend, the flow flattens through the mid levels and
becomes much more westerly, which will dry us out even more than we
already are, dropping RH values into the single digits across much
of the area.

With little to no relief in sight, the heat will continue across the
forecast area. We have extended the Extreme Heat Warning through
Tuesday evening for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.
Depending on whether or not we can get some moisture into the area
by midweek, we may need to extend the warning further into the week.

The dry conditions and lack of moisture combined with afternoon
breezes will keep enhanced fire weather concerns for the next
several days. Obey all fire restrictions that are in place.

As the high shifts over New Mexico through the first half of the
week, the return flow around the high may be able to advect some
moisture our way. However, confidence remains low as we have often
seen what looks like a good pattern for storms evaporate as it gets
closer to real time. For now, expect hot and dry conditions to
continue with some small chances that we may be able to see a few
more storms during the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 01/18Z through Saturday 02/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line from HZ/FU. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA with gusty outflow winds possible
from 19Z to 03Z, mainly east of a KGCN-KSEZ-KPAN line. Winds SW 10-
15 kts with gusts 20-25 kts before 02Z, the becoming VRB <5 kts.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 02/18Z through Monday 04/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions, outside of occasional MVFR near and north of a KGCN-KPGA
line from HZ/FU. ISO -SHRA/-TSRA with gusty outflow winds possible
in vicinity of KSJN/KSOW/KJTC each afternoon. Winds SW 10-20 kts on
Saturday, becoming W/SW 8-14 kts on Sunday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Saturday...Hot and mostly dry conditions
expected through Saturday. Chances for afternoon showers and
thunderstorms will persist over Apache County today, but will
decrease in coverage and potential rainfall on Saturday. Southwest
winds at 10 to 20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible over the
higher terrain, including the Kaibab Plateau. Minimum RH values
10-25%, decreasing to 5-15% Saturday. RH over the White Mountains
will be 20- 35% today, dropping to 15-30% Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Hot and mostly dry conditions continue.
Monsoonal moisture may return from the south by the middle of next
week, but confidence is low at this time. Southwest winds at 10 to
20 mph with gusts to 30 mph possible over the higher terrain,
including the Kaibab Plateau. Minimum RH values 5-15% through
Monday, with a slight increase to 10-20% Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Tuesday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff