599
FXUS65 KFGZ 041049
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
Issued by National Weather Service Tucson AZ
349 AM MST Wed Jun 4 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
through the day today, with a Flash Flood Watch in effect for
north-central and northwestern Arizona through this evening. Only
a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms continues Thursday along
the Utah/Arizona border. Warmer and drier conditions return Friday
through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...After an active day on Tuesday, a few showers and
thunderstorms have continued across northern Arizona overnight.
With the upper level low centered over the northern Baja early
this morning, most of the activity overnight has been closer to
the CA/AZ border. The upper low will gradually slide east through
the day today. We`re already starting to see some cell
redevelopment over the Phoenix valley early this morning, and the
hi-resolution guidance shows this trend continuing through the
morning hours with the aided support from the advancing upper low.
Expect increasing showers and storms this morning, with at least
scattered coverage through much of the day. A few strong storms
producing hail and gusty winds can`t be ruled out with bulk shear
values ranging from 25-40 kt. The greater threat will be training
thunderstorms leading to areas of flash flooding. This is
especially true for areas that received a soaking yesterday. Some
spots in Coconino/Yavapai counties received 1-3" of rain
yesterday, and additional heavy rain could lead to flooding. A
Flash Flood Watch remains in effect for these areas today, and has
been extended through 11 PM MST to account for lingering storm
activity this evening. The trough passage and shower activity
will keep temperatures today around 10 degrees cooler than normal.

Conditions begin to dry out by later this evening with the only
remaining storm chances lingering from around Grand Canyon
northward tonight through Thursday afternoon. Isolated heavy rain
and flash flooding could still be possible for sensitive areas on
Thursday. Thursday will begin to see increasing temperatures,
with the real warming arriving Friday. High pressure builds over
the region this weekend with temperatures returning to more
seasonal readings for early June. Much more typical June weather
is in store this weekend and through much of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 04/12Z through Thursday 05/12Z...VFR
conditions persist outside of SHRA/TSRA causing periods of
MVFR/IFR visibilities and ceilings. Brief FG possible through 16Z
across higher terrain. Chances for showers/storms will continue
through at least 06Z. Stronger storms will be capable of producing
+RA, hail, and gusty/erratic winds.

Thursday 05/12Z through Saturday 07/12Z...Mostly VFR conditions
expected, outside of lingering -SHRA/-TSRA along and north of
I-40 Thursday afternoon/evening. Gusty and erratic winds possible
near storms/showers, but otherwise look for SW-W winds 5-15 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue
across northern Arizona today, and will shift to areas from Grand
Canyon northward on Thursday. A few stronger storms could produce
hail, heavy rain, and erratic wind gusts. Outside of storms,
expect light west to southwest winds 10-15 mph and cool
temperatures.

Friday through Sunday...A period of dry and warming weather
returns Friday through the weekend. Expect decreasing humidity
with light winds around 10-15 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch through this evening for AZZ004-006>008-012-015-016-
037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...MCT
AVIATION...Konieczny
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff