024
FXUS65 KFGZ 171039
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
339 AM MST Sat May 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Gusty winds and cool weather looks to set in today and
Sunday, leading to areas of critical fire weather conditions.
Slight chance for showers across far northern Arizona tonight
through Monday as well. Warm and dry conditions expected to
return for much of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A deep trough is beginning to descend from the Great
Basin region today, so this will be the start of cooler
temperatures and windier conditions. Daytime highs only look to be
a few degrees cooler than yesterday, but expect afternoon wind
speeds to increase out of the southwest across much of our CWA.
The Wind Advisory that was issued yesterday for this afternoon has
been extended to also include the Little Colorado River Valley and
Painted Desert. This product is set to begin at 11 AM MST (12 PM
MDT) and continue through 11 PM MST (Midnight MDT). Hi-res
guidance does suggest winds remaining elevated overnight as the
trough axis slides across the state, but they should drop below
our advisory criteria. While we are on the topic of products, a
Red Flag Warning remains in effect for the Little Colorado River
Valley and White Mountains this afternoon/evening. The weather
doesn`t stop there though...this disturbance is carrying moisture
with it, but the bulk of the precipitation appears to stay north
of Arizona. Best chances for showers/thunderstorms will be across
the AZ/UT border late tonight through Sunday afternoon.

Model guidance suggests a secondary trough axis sliding down
Sunday night through Monday, but this system continues to look
less and less exciting with each model run for northern Arizona.
Winds will remain gusty ahead of this next system, especially
across eastern Arizona. The previous Fire Weather Watch has been
upgraded to a Red Flag Warning for Sunday afternoon for the Little
Colorado River Valley in Apache County. There could be a few
isolated showers/thunderstorms across the Four Corners on Sunday
afternoon/evening, with additional activity possible on Monday
along our eastern border. There could be a need for additional
Wind and Fire Weather related products for Monday afternoon, but
we`ll assess that further in upcoming grid updates.

Tuesday Onward...A quick return of warm and dry weather is in
store for next week as the previously mentioned trough moves out
of the region. Expect daytime highs to reach 5-15 degrees above
normal for the second half of the upcoming work-week, along with
typical spring-like breezes.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 17/12Z through Sunday 18/12Z...Primarily VFR
conditions are forecast, though smoke could reduce visibility
locally near and downwind of Greer (in eastern Arizona) and Blind
fire (southeast of KLFG). Winds generally light and variable
through 16Z, then increase becoming southwest at 15-20 kts gusting
to 30-35 kts. Saturday night will see local southwest winds at
10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts downwind of terrain features. After
06Z, ceilings lowering to 030-060 from KGCN-KPGA northwest with
scattered showers developing.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 18/12Z through Tuesday 20/12Z...VFR conditions
prevailing, though smoke could reduce visibility near and downwind
of wildfires. Isolated to scattered -SHRA and a slight chance of
-TSRA through Monday afternoon mainly north of I-40. Winds on
 Sunday southwest at 10-25 kts with gusts to 30-35 kts, strongest
 from KINW-KSOW-KSJN. West-northwest winds 15-25 kts with gusts
 30-40 kts developing after 16Z Monday and then diminishing during
 the evening.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Dry today with minimum RH values
mostly below 15%. Southwest winds increase to 15-25 mph gusting 30-
40 mph this afternoon, and will persist through the overnight hours
along the Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. A Red Flag Warning is in
effect today for the Little Colorado River Valley and White
Mountains. Breezy west-southwest winds continue Sunday, strongest in
eastern Arizona and a Red Flag Warning is in effect for the Little
Colorado River Valley in Apache County. Elsewhere, RH will trend
upward Sunday along with a chance of showers/thunderstorms over the
northern third of the state.

Monday through Wednesday...Cooler Monday with a chance of showers
mainly in northeast Arizona. West-northwest winds 15-25 mph, with
near-critical fire weather in eastern Arizona. Lighter winds, drier
conditions and turning much warmer Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Wind Advisory from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 11 PM
MST /midnight MDT/ this evening for AZZ004-006>008-012>015-040.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning to 7 PM
MST /8 PM MDT/ this evening for AZZ112>114-117-140.

Red Flag Warning from 11 AM to 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ114.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff