865
FXUS65 KFGZ 121727
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1027 AM MST Wed Nov 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooling, but still mild temperatures
will continue before breezy and cool conditions set in by Friday.
An incoming storm system is then expected to bring much colder
temperatures along with chances for rain and high elevation snow
for the weekend and into next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today through Friday...High pressure begins to
gradually shift eastward through the rest of the work week. As a
result, cooler (but still above normal) temperatures look to
remain through the coming days. Increasingly breezier conditions
also look to develop ahead of an approaching storm system, with
gusty southwest winds expected on Friday. Dry conditions look to
prevail through much of the short-term period, however an
isolated shower or two over western Arizona can not be totally
ruled out on Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...A closed low looks to develop off the
southern California Coast, and then slowly make its way eastward
across the southwest over the weekend. Model guidance has trended
significantly slower with this system over the past 24 hours. Much
of the GEFS, EPS, and CMCE support the bulk of the precipitation
moving into northern Arizona late Saturday into Sunday. As such,
PoPs were modified to follow suit, since the default NBM is
lagging behind.

QPF with this system also looks to have decreased with the track
in the latest runs. Most guidance suggests a tenth or two for the
lower elevations to upwards of a half inch to an inch for the
higher terrain. Some locally higher amounts will still be possible
in the typical upslope areas.

With this current track of the low, 700 mb temperatures look to
largely remain -2C to +2C. This would largely keep snow levels at
or above 8000 feet through much of the event, potentially dipping
slightly to near 7000-7500 feet on Sunday as cold air advection
begins to increase aloft a bit. Thus, for the vast majority of the
area, rain is expected for this event.

Monday onward...Unsettled weather looks to continue into next
week, with the potential for another storm system moving into the
southwest. Model solutions diverge significantly behind the
initial system, so confidence in any impacts with this secondary
system remains low. Some guidance does show a much colder system,
thus a greater potential for snow in the higher elevations,
however exact snow levels still remain unclear. Nevertheless,
continued cool, unsettled and breezy conditions look to remain.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/18Z through Thursday 13/18Z...VFR
conditions, only thing of note is areas of haze or smoke due to
prescribed burns. Winds SW-W 5-10 mph daytime, light and variable
or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/18Z through Saturday 15/18Z...VFR
conditions, dry until 00Z Sat, after which a 20-30% chance of rain
showers moves in. Winds S-SW 10-15kts, gusts to 20kts Thursday and
Friday, light and variable or terrain driven overnight periods.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Thursday...Dry with temperatures 10
degrees above average. Afternoon winds mainly S-SW 5-10 mph
today, S-SW 10-15 mph Thursday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25%.

Friday through Sunday...Unsettled and cooler weather arrives late
Friday and continues through the weekend. The highest
precipitation chances are from late Saturday through Sunday,
primarily rain with snow levels down near 8000 feet by Sunday.
Winds SW-W 10-15 mph Friday, SE-S 10-20 mph on Saturday, SW 15-25
mph Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff