823
FXUS65 KFGZ 302027
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
127 PM MST Sat Aug 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain chances will be limited mainly to the White
Mountains region this weekend, with otherwise dry and seasonable
weather expected across northern Arizona. Rain and thunderstorm
chances will gradually increase next week with an expected return
of monsoon moisture, especially by the second half of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...It`s a mostly sunny to partly cloudy day across northern
Arizona, with dry conditions outside a couple isolated showers
possible near the White Mountains. Temperatures are near average
for late August, and winds are light. This general pattern is
forecast to stick around Sunday and Labor Day, though daytime
temperatures will warm to around 5 degrees above normal as high
pressure becomes centered right over the state. As the high
continues to shift northward later Monday into the middle of next
week, we should see a gradual low level moisture increase from the
south. At this point, most of the moisture looks to stay from the
Mogollon Rim/White Mtns southward through at least Wednesday.
With east to northeasterly steering flow, this pattern is
favorable for storms developing on the higher terrain (Mogollon
Rim/White Mtns) and moving southwestward into Yavapai/Gila
counties each afternoon/early evening. Depending on the available
low level moisture (if a Gulf of California moisture surge
occurs), instability could be high enough for some strong to
locally severe storms south of the rim Tue/Wed.

Later next week - models indicate a weak pressure pattern across the
southwest US with light mid level steering flow. This should allow
for moisture positioned south of the state to flow northward through
gulf surges/outflow boundaries. PoPs in the blended NBM guidance
increase Thursday into next weekend, with the higher storm chances
generally along/south of the higher terrain. Still plenty of uncertainty
regarding moisture availability during this time though, due
partially to the possibility of tropical cyclone development off
the coast of Baja. We`ll track this over the next several days.


&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 30/18Z through Sunday 31/18Z...VFR conditions
are expected. An isolated mountain -SHRA/-TSRA is possible this
afternoon. Winds N-NE around 5-15 kts daytime, light and variable
or terrain driven overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 31/18Z through Tuesday 02/18Z...VFR conditions
expected. Isolated to scattered -SHRA/-TSRA in the White
Mountains on Sunday will spread west to areas along and south of
the Mogollon Rim Monday afternoon. Brief MVFR conditions are
possible along with gusty outflow winds. Otherwise, N-NE winds
5-15 kts daytime, light and variable or terrain driven overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Sunday and Monday...Isolated to scattered showers
and thunderstorms expected over the White Mountains and eastern Rim
Sunday. Thunderstorm chances start to increase westward along the
Rim on Monday. Temperatures warm to slightly above seasonal
averages. Look for minimum RH values between 10-30% both days.
Expect NE winds 5-15 mph. Winds near showers/storms could be
gusty/erratic.

Tuesday through Thursday...Precipitation chances begin expanding
back westward along the higher terrain as the week progresses,
returning to a mid grade Monsoon by middle to end of the week.
Maximum temperatures will be trending back down towards normal as
the week progresses. Minimum RH values generally between 15-30%.
Outside of storm driven winds, expect variable winds 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Bernhart
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff