200
FXUS65 KFGZ 222312
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
412 PM MST Sun Jun 22 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry, mild, and breezy conditions will continue
through Monday. Moisture and precipitation chances gradually
increase from the southeast starting Tuesday, but most storm
activity is forecast to remain over southern Apache County and
into New Mexico.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northern Arizona is on the dry and windy southern end
of a strong low pressure system centered over the northern Rockies.
Near-critical fire weather conditions are being observed over
portions of northeast Arizona where a Red Flag Warning is in
effect until 8 PM MST / 9 PM Navajo Nation. While the main part of
the low will move eastward into the northern Plains/southern
Canada on Monday, a weaker part of the trough will hang back over
central California and remain there through the middle of next
week. This will lead to another breezy/cool day Monday, though
winds are forecast to fall short of Red Flag criteria.

Tuesday through Saturday - southerly flow develops between the low
to our west and ridging to the east. This will pull deep moisture
northward into New Mexico, with most of Arizona missing out on
this early monsoon moisture. The exception looks like far eastern
Arizona where there will be a chance of showers and thunderstorms
each day. Right now, this is expected to remain east of a Payson-
Winslow-Four Corners line, with the highest chances (20-40%) over
southern Apache County/White Mountains on Tuesday and then a bit
lower chances Wednesday onward. Daily high temperatures will
slowly increase to near or slightly above normal through the week.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 23/00Z through Tuesday 24/00Z...VFR conditions.
S-SW winds at 15-25 kts with gusts to 25-35 kts through 03Z, then
light and variable overnight. Expect strongest winds along/north
of a KFLG-KSOW line. Winds become S-SW 10-20 kts with gusts to 30
kts after 15Z.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 24/00Z through Thursday 26/00Z...VFR conditions.
S-SW winds at 10-20 kts gusting to 30 kts through 03Z/Tue, then
S-SW at 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts after 15Z/Tue. S-SW winds at
5-15 kts are expected for Wednesday. Light and variable winds
during overnight periods. ISO/SCT SHRA/TSRA along/east of a KSOW-
KRQE line between 18Z/Tue-06Z/Wed. Gusty and erratic winds
possible near showers/storms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Windy and mostly dry.
Critical fire weather conditions today, with minimum RH 10-15% and
southwest winds 15-25 mph gusting to 30-40 mph. A Red Flag Warning
is in effect until 8 PM MST where conditions are most critical in
the Little Colorado River Valley and the Navajo Nation in AZ. Winds
settle Monday and Tuesday, becoming south through southwest 10-20
mph gusting 25-35 mph each day. Dry conditions remain, but slightly
higher humidity is expected over the White Mountains on Tuesday
where there is a 10-30% chance for showers and thunderstorms.

Wednesday through Friday...Mostly dry, with continued daily chances
of showers in far eastern AZ. Min RH 5-15% each day, slightly higher
over the White Mountains where there is a daily 10-30% chance of
thunderstorms. Winds are light, southwest through west 5-15 mph
each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Red Flag Warning until 8 PM MST /9 PM MDT/ this evening for
AZZ109>114-139-140.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff