484
FXUS65 KFGZ 161643
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
943 AM MST Sat Aug 16 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms
will continue today, becoming more isolated Sunday into early next
week. Drier and warmer conditions return early in the week with well
above normal temperatures expected.

&&

.DISCUSSION...An area of mid level energy rotating through the base
of the trough early this morning has kept showers and thunderstorms
going overnight, mainly across Yavapai and western Coconino
counties. As the wave pushes to the north this morning, we should
see this activity drop off as the flow turns southwesterly and drier
air pushes into the region.

Meanwhile, high pressure remains off to the east over the plains
states with a stubborn trough staying across the west coast. With
the trough taking control through the weekend and into early next
week, we will see precipitation chances drop off due to the drier
southwest flow across the region. The dry air will push the
monsoonal moisture off to the north and east, leaving us with less
storm activity today than the past couple of days. Expect mostly
isolated showers through much of the area today, with scattered
activity across eastern areas. With more dry air moving in for
Sunday, we won`t see much activity outside of the eastern Mogollon
Rim and White Mountains.

The high starts to retrograde and pushes back to the west early in
the week. Temperatures will warm in the southwest flow and we will
likely see above normal temperatures by Monday and Tuesday, with
heat headlines likely for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon
for Tuesday through the end of the week. The heat will hang around
through the weak so be prepared for hot conditions. By midweek, the
high sets up across the Four Corners, which should allow for better
moisture advection into the region and the potential for showers and
thunderstorms to return to the region. Moisture may be slow to ramp
up but increased monsoon activity is expected across the forecast.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 16/18Z through Sunday 17/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA until 03Z. Gusty and erratic
winds and brief MVFR conditions possible in and around
thunderstorms. Outside of storms, southwest winds 10-15 kts
gusting to 20 kts through 02Z. Light winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 17/18Z through Tuesday 19/18Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. Isolated -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon, mainly along and
south of a KPAN-KSOW-KSJN line. Winds southwesterly at 5-15 kts
each day with light winds overnight.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Drier and warmer air will move in
through the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms for today,
becoming more isolated on Sunday, mainly across the White Mountains.
Gusty and erratic winds possible in and near storms. Outside of
storms, west-southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with terrain
driven winds each night.

Monday through Wednesday...Hot and mostly dry conditions return.
Isolated showers and thunderstorms each day, mainly across the
eastern Mogollon Rim and White Mountains. Minimum RH values 10-30%
each day, highest in the White Mountains region. Gusty and erratic
outflow winds possible in and near thunderstorms. Outside of storms,
southwest winds 5-15 mph each afternoon with terrain driven winds at
night.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

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