782
FXUS65 KFGZ 191749
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1049 AM MST Sat Oct 19 2024

.SYNOPSIS...A cold low pressure system will bring rain and snow
showers at times through Sunday morning. Dry weather and a warming
trend return next week.

&&

.UPDATE...The upper low continues to spin across the state,
centered more over south central Arizona this morning. The low
will continue to wobble over the state today, eventually lifting
to the northeast Sunday afternoon. Majority of the showers
associated with the low are near the center and along the
periphery, mainly near the AZ/NM border. Some isolated thunder
along with the scattered showers will increase in coverage today
as good mid level energy rotates around the low. Made some
adjustments to the PoPs to better reflect the current radar and
trends. Otherwise, only minor edits were needed with this
morning`s update.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION /528 AM MST/...The upper low was centered very near Flagstaff at 2
AM, evident from the circulation on satellite and radar loops. The
low has actually wobbled back south and west a bit overnight, and
this trend is forecast to continue this morning before it moves
back north to near Flagstaff again through Sunday morning. Areas
of rain and snow continue to rotate around the low, impacting
areas along the Utah and New Mexico state lines, with additional
precipitation near the low center including Prescott, Cottonwood,
Sedona up into the Flagstaff region. Some enhancement due to
easterly low level winds has also been observed on the east side
of Flagstaff including Doney Park and Winona where roads became
snow covered. Current snow levels are 6000-6500 feet. With the low
remaining in our area through Sunday morning, expect periods of
rain and snow showers but only low to moderate confidence in
timing and amounts at any given location due to the convective and
mesoscale banded nature of the precipitation. The latest model
guidance shows the current areas of rain and snow decreasing by
mid morning. By this afternoon, additional showers develop over
Navajo and Apache counties and wrap westward around the low
Saturday evening, eventually reaching much of Coconino and far
northern Yavapai counties. Snow levels are forecast to rise
slightly through Saturday night as the low gradually fills, rising
to 6500-7500 feet. Our latest forecast calls for up to another
inch of snow Saturday evening and overnight along the Mogollon Rim
and Chuska Mtns, and a bit higher amounts for the Kaibab Plateau
(1-3"). We will extend the Winter Weather Advisory for the Kaibab
Plateau through 5 AM Sunday, matching the advisory for the
Chuskas.

By Sunday afternoon, the low will be centered near the four
corners and moving on its way east of the state by Sunday night.
It will be less chilly Sunday afternoon, but still 10-15 degrees
below seasonal averages. Starting Monday and continuing through
the work week, drier westerly flow arrives as high pressure build
over the region. High temperatures will rebound, reaching near 10
degrees above average by mid to late week.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 19/18Z through Sunday 20/18Z...Scattered
showers and thunderstorms will increase in coverage this afternoon
and spread west across the state this evening and overnight.
Expect areas of MVFR to IFR in/near the showers, especially north
of a KPRC - KSOW line. Snow is possible above 6500 ft MSL. Outside
of showers, east to northeast winds for most areas at 10-20 kts.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 20/18Z through Tuesday 22/18Z...VFR conditions
return by midday Sunday with a lingering 20-40% chance of showers
near the four corners Sunday afternoon. Winds west through north
around 10 kts Sunday, becoming light and variable on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Sunday...Scattered rain and snow showers
with scattered thunderstorms will move west across the area today
and this evening. Very cold temperatures continue. A drying and
warming trend will begin on Sunday. Easterly winds today will become
north to northwest on Sunday.

Monday through Wednesday...The warming trend continues with above
normal temperatures and light winds.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST /6 AM MDT/ Sunday for
AZZ004-011.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola/JJ
AVIATION...MCT
FIRE WEATHER...MCT

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff