251
FXUS65 KFGZ 040515
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
1015 PM MST Wed Dec 3 2025

.SYNOPSIS...A weak weather system will bring a chance of light
rain and snow showers from through this evening. Fair weather
returns Thursday with a warming trend beginning on Friday and
lasting into the start of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A shortwave is currently making its expected
transit over northern AZ. This feature is weak, but has brought
just enough moisture and forcing to keep the forecast fairly
tricky. Multiple disorganized bands of light-moderate showers have
spread southward through the day. Snow has been pushed as low as
5000` within the heaviest showers, currently east of Flagstaff
near Winslow. Behind these initial snow bands, spotty convective
showers are beginning to fire off. The best setup for convective
activity looks to be south of Flagstaff, however more limited
showers are still possible to the west and north. Snow showers
will grow more impactful as temperatures begin to dip this
evening. The most likely location for travel impacts will be
along/south of I-40 from Flagstaff eastward, however don`t be
caught off guard by a brief heavy shower outside this region.

Tonight and Thursday... The shortwave trough is quickly pushing
eastward, and activity is expected to end by the late evening.
Elevated northeasterly winds are anticipated downwind of terrain
features tonight. Away from these regions, overnight lows will be
very chilly. Chilly daytime temps will linger tomorrow,
particularly to the north and east of the Rim.

Friday and beyond...High pressure strengthens over the west coast
and we look to stay outside of the storm track. Dry conditions with
gradually warming temperatures are expected through the start of
next week.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 04/06Z through Friday 05/06Z...VFR expected.
Light winds but locally gusty NE winds to 20 kts downwind of the
higher terrain.

OUTLOOK...Friday 05/06Z through Sunday 07/06Z...VFR conditions
and light winds.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Thursday and Friday...Rain and snow showers move
east of the district this evening with clearing skies overnight.
Expect dry conditions Thursday and Friday, temperatures will remain
below normal with cold overnight readings. Winds will be generally
light and northerly Thursday, variable on Friday.

Saturday through Monday...Dry conditions with temperatures gradually
rising into the weekend. Winds will remain light with directions
ranging from northwest through northeast.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff