254
FXUS65 KFGZ 102310
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
410 PM MST Thu Sep 10 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Chances for showers and thunderstorms increase for
Friday and into the weekend, along with a modest cooling trend and
breezy southwest winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Monsoon moisture will return as early as tomorrow as
high pressure reestablishes itself over Arizona. We have entered the
shoulder season, so the moisture pool will occasionally retreat and
then move back northward as it interacts with troughs for the next
several weeks. Eventually, these troughs will sweep the moisture out
permanently, but this looks like it is at least 10 days out.

Southwest breezes will also pick up over the next few days as low
pressure passes to our north, but nothing that will need any
headlines.

So, this is the last very warm day, expect some cooling as showers
pick up heading into the weekend. We should dip back to normal
around Monday or Tuesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 11/00Z through Saturday 12/00Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. ISOLD -SHRA/-TSRA possible through 02Z, primarily
south of the I-40 corridor. SCT SHRA/TSRA chances return across
much of northern AZ after 18Z. Brief drops to MVFR conditions and
gusty winds possible near TS. Winds are light and VRB tonight,
becoming SW-W 10-15 kts gusting to 25 kts after 18Z.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 12/00Z through Monday 14/00Z...Primarily VFR
conditions. SCT -SHRA/-TSRA each afternoon/early evening over the
White Mountains, ISOLD elsewhere. Winds are SW-W 10-20kts each day.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...Shower and thunderstorm
activity will increase for Friday and into Saturday as moisture
moves back northward. Wetting rains will be possible with any
thunderstorm. Mainly daytime southwest winds will range from 10
to 15 mph, with gusts from 20 to 25 mph, for both afternoons.

Sunday through Tuesday...Daily chances for showers and thunderstorms
continue. Expect afternoon southwest winds from 15 to 25 mph, with
gusts to near 30 mph each day.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Lewandowski
FIRE WEATHER...Peterson

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff