783
FXUS65 KFGZ 172320
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
420 PM MST Mon Nov 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Cool and unsettled weather continues to be the main
story through much of the forecast period. Expect rain and high
elevation snow at times beginning tonight through at least
Wednesday night or Thursday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The next slow-moving closed low is taking shape over
the central California coast this afternoon, with a deep plume of
moisture draped through southern and central California. This
system will drop southward into southern California overnight,
then slowly push eastward into our area through the day Tuesday
and Wednesday. An upstream low moving toward the west coast should
finally kick our system off to the east but not until sometime
Thursday. So, starting later this evening/overnight, we are in for
a few more days of unsettled weather with additional precipitation
chances - with a threat of significant rainfall amounts (>1") especially
along/west of a Payson-Flagstaff-Page line. At this time, the
heaviest rainfall is forecast in western Arizona, including
portions of Yavapai County where a slight risk for flash flooding
has been introduced by WPC for Tuesday/Tuesday night though it may
extend into Wednesday as well. The latest total precipitation
forecast for the event is 2+ inches for much of southern/western
Yavapai County, with some higher amounts over south facing slopes
due to orographic lift. There will also be some low instability
late tonight through Tuesday, so a few thunderstorms should
develop in western Arizona. The other aspect to this storm system
over the next few days will be higher elevation snow. At this
time, most of the precipitation through Tuesday evening should be
in the form of rain below 8000 feet so any accumulation will
likely be limited to the Kaibab Plateau and San Francisco Peaks.
Late Tuesday night through Wednesday night - as the low moves
closer and eventually into our area, snow levels will slowly fall.
Latest forecast are for a snow level 7000-7500 ft late Tue
night/Wed, falling to 6500-7000 ft Wed night/Thu, possibly down
near 6000 ft. As of now, our total snowfall forecasts are up to an
inch or two above 6500 ft, with the better chances for any slick
roads during the overnight/early morning periods. Above 8000-8500
ft (Kaibab Plateau/San Francisco Peaks/White Mtns) we are
forecasting some 3-8"+ amounts. After a break in precip chances
later Thursday through Friday, another low may affect the region
for the weekend. PoPs are only in the 20-30% range for now as this
is still rather uncertain.

&&

.AVIATION...Tuesday 18/00Z through Wednesday 19/00Z...For locations
along, west and northwest of the I-17 corridor, areas of -SHRA/SHRA
developing AFT 01Z-03Z this evening, continuing through the period.
Upslope locations and areas where showers are occurring will produce
MVFR/IFR. Winds generally light. For locations generally east of the
I-17 corridor and northeast of the central Mogollon Rim and White
Mountains, expect VFR conditions. Sfc winds S15-25kts for Tuesday
afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Wednesday 19/00Z through Friday 21/00Z...Areas -SHRA/SHRA
as well as -SHSN/SHSN (above 7500 feet) through most of the period.
Upslope locations and areas where showers are occurring will produce
MVFR/IFR. Sfc winds will not impact flight operations.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Tuesday through Wednesday...Scattered to widespread
rain showers expected on Tuesday. Snow level lowers to 7500 feet by
Wednesday morning with rain and high elevation snow showers
continuing throughout the day. Winds S-SW 10-15 mph, gusts 20-25
mph both days.

Thursday through Saturday...A chance of rain showers continues, with
snow showers above 6500-7000 feet. Winds SW 10 mph Thursday,
becoming SE-S 5-10 mph Friday, N-NE 5-10 mph Saturday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...Peterson
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff