403
FXUS65 KFGZ 220037
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
537 PM MST Thu Nov 21 2024

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and mild temperatures are expected
through the end of the week. Slighty cooler and breezier
conditions then set in for next week, along with a chance for
showers.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A warm front pushes through Arizona today,
leading some high clouds early this afternoon, but then gradually
decreasing through the day. Highs this afternoon are running about
10 degrees above normal along and south of the Mogollon Rim. While
to the north, temperatures should remain a bit cooler, but still
typical for this time of year.

Friday and Saturday...Warmer temperatures continue into Friday as
the weak ridge of high pressure continues to move eastward. Heights
begin to fall on Saturday, so a slight cool down is expected, but
otherwise still mild for this time of year.

Sunday through Wednesday...A storm systems ejects off the Pacific
into Nevada and Utah by the start of next week. With a more
northerly track, Arizona looks to remain in mainly zonal flow. Some
breezier winds (especially Sunday) and cooler, more seasonable
temperatures look to start off the week.

The mean trough axis looks to eventually brush past Arizona, which
may give us a slightly better shot at some precipitation with more
favorable dynamics and flow. Latest ensemble guidance points towards
the middle of the week for the best chances, but even then, amounts
look to be on the lighter side.

&&

.AVIATION...Friday 22/00Z through Saturday 23/00Z...VFR conditions
persist with SCT-BKN250. Expect light winds, under 10 kts, and
variable between the east and southwest.

OUTLOOK...Saturday 23/00Z through Monday 25/00Z...VFR conditions
continue through Saturday with variable cloud cover. Conditions
worsen on Sunday with increasing cloud cover and chances for
scattered -SHRA/-SHSN across Coconino County. Winds will remain
light and variable on Friday, becoming southwest 15-25 kts for
Saturday and Sunday.


&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Friday and Saturday...The dry and mild pattern
continues across northern Arizona for Friday and Saturday. Expect
daytime temperatures near 10 degrees above average each day with
afternoon humidity below 15%. Light, terrain driven winds are
forecast for Friday, followed by a return of southwest winds, 15 to
30 mph on Saturday.

Sunday through Tuesday...Moisture increases throughout the period
with cooler, near average temperatures each day. Scattered rain and
snow showers are forecast each day with greatest chances along and
north of I-40. Gustier southwest winds, 20 to 35 mph, are likely on
Sunday, becoming lighter, 10 to 20 mph, for Monday and Tuesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Humphreys
AVIATION...MAS
FIRE WEATHER...LaGuardia

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff