793
FXUS65 KFGZ 240935
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
235 AM MST Mon Aug 24 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Moderate monsoon activity will continue through today,
mainly along the higher terrain during the afternoon and evening
hours. As high pressure builds over Arizona, expect hot temperatures
and a decrease in storm activity to develop as moisture diminishes
across the region.

&&

.DISCUSSION...High pressure remains centered across New Mexico
early this morning. The high drifts to the west today through
Tuesday before becoming centered over Arizona. As we move through
the rest of the week, the high starts to sink further to the south
and east.

Today and Tuesday...A few showers and isolated storms continue early
this morning, mainly across Yavapai County, in response to outflows
from storms across the valley overnight. Precipitation with this
activity is light and not expected to be very impactful, other than
increasing cloud cover through daybreak. Going through the rest of
today, we see monsoon moisture remaining in place with another
fairly active afternoon/evening across the region. Best chances will
be across the higher terrain and across western portions of the
forecast area as moisture is advected up from the Gulf of California
in the continued southerly flow. Storm motions remain on the slow
side which will keep flash flooding as the main hazard for the day.
As the high pushes back to the west we will lose some of that good
moisture advection into the region and storm chances will start to
decrease. Expect storms to develop mainly across the higher terrain
for Tuesday.

Wednesday through Friday...As the high becomes centered over
Arizona, we see the moisture start to get cut off as subsidence wins
out with drier conditions expected. Best chances for any storms will
remain mainly across the higher terrain with the highest chances
towards the White Mountains. The other factor of the strengthening
high will be the increasing temperatures, which will be hot across
the region. With highs reaching back into the 100s and heat risk
increasing, we have issued an Extreme Heat Warning for the lower
elevations of the Grand Canyon and Yavapai County, for areas below
4000 feet, in effect for Wednesday through Friday.

Saturday and Sunday...Models show the high elongating and sliding to
the east of the region by the weekend. This shift may help to usher
moisture back into our area with better chances for showers and
thunderstorms returning along with slightly cooler temperatures.

&&

.AVIATION...Monday 24/06Z through Tuesday 25/06Z...Mainly VFR
conditions. An outflow boundary moving north from central AZ
could trigger a round of SHRA/TSRA late tonight into early Monday
morning (through around 09Z) along/south of KPRC-KSEZ-KINW.
Otherwise, another round of isolated to scattered SHRA/TSRA is
then forecast to develop Monday afternoon, with highest coverage
west of a KPAN-KPGA line. Brief MVFR conditions and gusty/erratic
wind to 40 kts possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Otherwise, look for
south to southwest daytime winds at 5-15 kts, with variable or
terrain wind-driven winds overnight.

OUTLOOK...Tuesday 25/06Z through Thursday 27/06Z...Expect mainly
VFR conditions. Coverage of afternoon SHRA/TSRA decreasing to
isolated Tuesday and Wednesday, mainly over higher terrain.
Outside of gusty/erratic outflow driven winds, look for daytime
winds mainly southwest to west 5-15 kts. Light and variable winds
at night.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today through Tuesday...Chance for showers and
thunderstorms continue through today with the greatest coverage
across the higher terrain and best timing from around midday into
the evening hours. Drier conditions are possible Tuesday, with low-
grade monsoonal conditions developing. Outside of gusty and erratic
storm driven winds, expect southwest to west winds around 5-15 mph
during the day, becoming variable at night.

Wednesday through Friday...Hot temperatures return with drier
conditions expected. Low-grade monsoonal conditions each day, mainly
across the higher terrain and becoming largely limited to the White
Mountains. Expect southwest winds around 5-15 mph each afternoon.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 8 PM MST Friday for
AZZ006-037.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Meola
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...Meola

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff