211
FXUS65 KFGZ 072332
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
432 PM MST Tue Oct 7 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Warm and mainly dry conditions continue through
Wednesday. Widespread precipitation then spreads into the region
from Thursday onward, with areas of heavy rain likely. Some flash
flooding will be possible, especially late Friday into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Not much has changed since the last few publications
of this discussion. We are now awaiting the rapid deepening of low
pressure off the Pacific Northwest coast, this should generally
occur in the next 18 hours.

The result of the rapid pressure falls to our NNW will be the
advection of sub-tropical moisture into Arizona from the south. In
addition, Hurricane Priscilla will also be drawn northward and may
help initiate a surge in the Gulf of California.

All this combines over Arizona Thursday and Friday, with deep
saturation and weak instability. Then intensifies Friday night into
Saturday as a cold front moves into the region. Then, is swept
southeastward through the day Sunday.

It looks like the main features of this overall event will be the
deep saturation and much of the rainfall will stratiform, but will
be moderate to heavy at times. There is just enough instability and
a bunch of shear, that isolated severe and rotating cells embedded
in this sub-trpoical soup cannot be ruled out.

Sub-tropical rainfall rates and sustained, multi-day rainfall will
likely produce some flooding. Due to the very complex nature of this
multi-faceted system, we do not know yet where the heaviest band
will develop.

There are indications that the secondary low expected early next
week is now more progressive and stays to our north. This would
prevent another surge of moisture from moving into our area, we have
left chance PoPs in for now, as uncertainty is high beyond the
weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 08/00Z through Thursday 09/00Z...VFR
expected. Daytime S-SW winds 5-15 kts with gusts to 25 kts,
becoming light and variable during the overnight period.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 09/00Z through Saturday 11/00Z...Mainly VFR
expected. ISO-SCT SHRA/TSRA after 12Z/Thu with periods of MVFR or
lower possible with gusty/erratic winds. Expect daytime SE-SW
winds 10-20 kts, becoming lighter 5-15 kts during the overnight
period.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Daytime highs will continue
to be above normal on Wednesday, then quickly dropping 5-10 degrees
for Thursday. Mostly dry conditions expected on Wednesday, before
minimum RH values jump to 40-60% on Thursday due to increased
chances for showers and thunderstorms. Winds will generally be out
of the south-southwest 10-20 mph Wednesday afternoon, becoming more
southeast on Thursday.

Friday through Sunday...Daytime highs will trend cooler through the
weekend. Expect widespread showers and thunderstorms Friday and
Saturday, becoming isolated to scattered across the Mogollon Rim and
White Mountains on Sunday. Flash flooding will be the primary hazard
Friday and Saturday. Look for southerly winds 5-15 mph on Friday,
south-southwest winds 10-20 mph on Saturday, and southwest through
west winds 5-15 mph on Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Peterson
AVIATION...Meola
FIRE WEATHER...Konieczny

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff