989
FXUS65 KFGZ 161026
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
326 AM MST Thu Jul 16 2026

.SYNOPSIS...Monsoon moisture will remain over the area through
the coming week with daily storm chances, along with the risk for
heavy rainfall and localized flooding. With the added moisture and
cloud cover, daytime temperatures will be below normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Northeasterly steering flow is in place with a ridge
to our north and an inverted trough moving from TX into NM. With
abundant monsoon moisture now in place, we are getting multiple
rounds of showers and thunderstorms as activity develops along
higher terrain in the afternoon and continues toward the southwest
through the evening and overnight. One round of widespread showers
over Yavapai County at 1 AM originated in the northeast AZ high
terrain Wednesday afternoon. With atmospheric moisture elevated
above normal levels for mid July, a few storms Wednesday evening
were prolific rainfall producers. This includes a cluster of
storms at Holbrook that caused significant flooding as 2-3"+ of
rain fell in a short period. For later today, another round of
thunderstorms is forecast to develop along higher terrain around
mid day, then roll off to the southwest. This targets Yavapai and
Gila counties as well as western/central Coconino County with the
higher potential to see localized flash flooding. A Flash Flood
Watch has been issued for these areas from 11 AM - 11 PM MST
today and it includes flood prone areas such as the Pocket and
Dragon Bravo fire scars, Supai, and the slot canyons in northern
Coconino County. Neighborhood probabilities from HREF for 1"/hr
rainfall are near 70% in these areas. Isolated flash flooding can
still occur outside the watch area. Another round of
evening/overnight showers and storms is indicated in much of the
guidance, and our PoP values remain elevated tonight into Friday
morning. By Friday afternoon, the flash flood risk continues area
wide but especially in western/central Coconino County and parts
of Yavapai County. The HREF neighborhood probabilities for 1"/hr
rainfall are >70% with an embedded area of 10-30% probabilities
for 3"/hr rainfall. Additional Flash Flood Watches may be needed
so stay tuned.

Monsoon moisture is forecast to remain in place for the weekend
into next week with a continuation of daily thunderstorm chances.
The steering flow looks to turn more east/southeasterly due to
subtle changes in the high position.

&&

.AVIATION...Thursday 16/12Z through Friday 17/12Z...Mostly VFR
conditions forecast, but brief MVFR conditions possible in heavier
SHRA/TSRA. Isolated to scattered showers/storms decreasing through
the morning, then becoming widespread again after 18Z. Periods of
SHRA/TSRA are expected to persist overnight into Friday morning.
Gusty/erratic winds likely from storm outflows, with variable
winds generally 10 kts or less otherwise.

OUTLOOK...Friday 17/12Z through Sunday 19/12Z...VFR conditions
expected through much of the period, but brief MVFR conditions
possible in heavier SHRA/TSRA. Greatest coverage for showers/storms
will be between 18Z-03Z each day, with isolated to scattered
activity forecast during overnight periods. Gusty/erratic outflow
winds possible around storms, with variable winds 10 kts or less
expected otherwise.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Today and Friday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms, with the greatest over the higher terrain in the
afternoon. Some activity may last into the overnight hours. Isolated
flash flooding and gusty outflow winds possible with any stronger
storm. Outside of storm activity, winds south through west 5-15 mph.

Saturday through Monday...Daily chances for showers and
thunderstorms continue, with the best chances over the higher
terrain where a widespread wetting rain is expected over this
period. Downpours and gusty outflow winds possible with any stronger
storm. Outside of storm activity, winds south through west 5-15 mph.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Flood Watch from 11 AM MST /noon MDT/ this morning through this
evening for AZZ004>008-018-037-038.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...JJ
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff