609
FXUS65 KFGZ 121208
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
508 AM MST Wed Mar 12 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Rain and snow showers will continue through the next
several days, with heaviest precipitation likely falling Thursday
afternoon into Friday morning. High pressure will build across the
region Sunday and Monday, with another slight chance for
unsettled weather to return on Tuesday. Otherwise, next week
should have mostly mild weather.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Rain and snow showers remain mostly east of I-17 and
HWY 89. These showers will continue to move eastward and diminish
through sunrise, with areas above 7000` across the Mogollon Rim
and White Mountains still in a Winter Weather Advisory through 11
AM MST. Although precipitation will largely conclude by the early
afternoon hours today, hi-res guidance suggests a few stray
showers continue through the rest of Wednesday primarily for
areas west of a Page-Flagstaff-Payson line.

The next round of showers is due to start across our western CWA
border early Thursday afternoon. This storm system will bring
significant snowfall to elevations above 6000`, especially across
the Kaibab Plateau, Mogollon Rim, and White Mountains. As a
result, the Winter Storm Watch for these locations has been
upgraded to a Winter Storm Warning. Ultimately, we are forecasting
8-12" of snowfall for these previously mentioned areas, with
0.5-4" down to 5500`. Snow levels will continue to drop as the frontal
passage moves through the state, so snowfall could be seen down
to 4000`, but accumulation at these lower locations will be
minimal to none. The heaviest precipitation looks to fall between
11 AM MST and 11 PM MST Thursday, so travel during these periods
is highly discouraged. Not only will the roads likely become snow
covered/slick, but gusty winds are expected with this system too.
Strong winds mixed with heavy snow showers will create extremely
poor visibility. In summary, hazardous travel along I-40 between
Ash Fork and Williams, and I-17 between Camp Verde and Flagstaff
can be expected throughout the duration of this winter storm. Even
road closures could be possible. Be sure to pack an emergency kit
(warm clothes, food, water, and portable chargers) if you
absolutely have to travel. Checking road conditions at AZ511.gov
is also recommended before getting behind the wheel.

This large low pressure system moves out of the area pretty
quickly on Friday, with a weak disturbance following right behind.
Model guidance continues to suggest light precipitation on Friday
evening through Saturday afternoon, where 0.5-2" of additional
snowfall across higher elevation locations could be noted.

Another area of high pressure looks to settled across the
Southwest Sunday and Monday, allowing daytime highs to climb back
towards normal for this time of year. Beyond Monday, model
guidance is somewhat all over the place. We could see some
additional showers on Tuesday, or we could ride a wave of mild
weather through much of next week. Definitely check back later for
updates.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 12/12Z through Thursday 13/12Z...MVFR/IFR
CIGS linger over higher terrain through the period. Scattered
SHRASN is possible primarly along/south of the I-40 corridor.
Afternoon winds are S/SW 10-20 kts, remaining elevated overnight.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 13/12Z through Saturday 15/12Z...IFR/LIFR
conditions as widespread RA/SN ramps up through 18Z Thursday, and
last through 06-12Z Friday. A return to VFR/MVFR with scattered
SHRASN thereafter. Winds are S/SW 20-30 kts with gusts up 40 kts
Thursday afternoon, becoming W 10-20 kts with gusts up to 30 kts on
Friday afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Wednesday and Thursday...Continued rain and snow
showers expected through Wednesday morning. Lingering spotty showers
possible Wednesday afternoon through Thursday morning, before
widespread rain and snow starting Thursday afternoon into the
overnight. Winds are south through southwest 10-20 mph Wednesday,
becoming southwest 25-35 mph with gusts up to 50 mph Thursday.

Friday through Sunday... Chance for continued showers Friday and
Saturday, with warmer and drier conditions returning by Sunday.
Winds are west 15-25 mph with gusts up to 35 mph on Friday, turning
northwest and weakening slightly Saturday. Light and variable
winds return Sunday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Storm Warning from noon Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
AZZ004-015-016.

Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST this morning for AZZ016-
017.

Winter Storm Warning from 5 PM Thursday to 5 AM MST Friday for
AZZ017.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Konieczny/Lewandowski
AVIATION...Humphreys
FIRE WEATHER...Lewandowski

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff