245
FXUS65 KFGZ 172238
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
338 PM MST Fri Oct 17 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Dry conditions and cooler temperatures continue
today. Expect a slight warming trend over the weekend, with near
normal-temperatures into early next week. A passing low-pressure
is forecast to bring cooler temperatures, breezier winds, and a
10-30% chance of rain showers around of the middle of next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Today...A dry trough is currently moving through
northern AZ. We are seeing light winds and below normal temperatures
today as the trough axis crosses our forecast area. Expect another
round of chilly nighttime temperatures tonight with lingering low
500-mb heights and continued conditions for efficient radiative
cooling.

Saturday through Monday...The trough propagates past our area and a
ridge builds in its wake. This will lead to further dry conditions
with light winds, but daytime temperatures recover to near or above
normal. Overall a pleasant fall weekend can be expected.

Tuesday and onward...Clusters are in agreement that a low pressure
system spinning off the coast Baja California will finally push
northeastward across northern AZ. The only disagreement is in the
strength and exact timing. This system is better positioned to pull
up some moisture as it approaches, but precipitation chances are
currently not too high at any one location. There is generally a
10-30% chance for precipitation across the region starting late
Tuesday evening. As is typical with approaching troughs, elevated
winds can also be expected. The upper percentiles of ensemble
guidance have wind gusts peaking at 30-35 mph, which would remain
below thresholds for a Wind Advisory. Some models keep showers in
the forecast as late as Thursday morning, then there is good
agreement in dry conditions with lighter winds returning
thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...Saturday 18/00Z through Sunday 19/00Z...VFR
conditions are forecast. Mainly light and variable winds less the
10 kts through the period.

OUTLOOK...Sunday 19/00Z through Tuesday 21/00Z...VFR conditions
are expected. Mainly light and variable winds less than 10 kts
through Sunday, becoming west at 10-15 kts on Monday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Saturday and Sunday...Dry conditions with
gradually warming temperatures. NW-NE winds 5-10 mph Saturday, S-SW
winds 5-10 mph Sunday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% both days.

Monday through Wednesday...Warm temperatures and dry conditions
continue Monday and Tuesday. Temperatures decrease a few degrees on
Wednesday with a slight chance of showers moving into the area.
Winds W 10-15 mph on Monday, SE-S 10-15 mph on Tuesday, SW 10-20 mph
Wednesday. Minimum afternoon RH 15-25% Monday and Tuesday, 20-35%
Wednesday.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...Lewandowski
AVIATION...McCollum
FIRE WEATHER...Bernhart

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff