114
FXUS65 KFGZ 302016
AFDFGZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Flagstaff AZ
116 PM MST Wed Jul 30 2025

.SYNOPSIS...Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue, outside
of slight chances for showers/storms each afternoon/evening.
Greatest chances for activity will be across the White Mountains,
but could spread more west and north through the end of the week.
An Extreme Heat Warning remains in effect for lower elevations of
the Grand Canyon through the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...The mainly dry weather pattern will persiste through
early next week. High pressure will gradually nudge its way into
southern Arizona over the coming days. At the same time troughing
will persist along the west coast of the United States. The
described pattern will continue to deliver a mainly dry air mass
to northern Arizona with ample moisture over the Gulf of
California and northwest Mexico making little if any progress
northward.

Rest of today..Mainly dry and breezy. Much like on Tuesday there
will be a few showers over the eastern Mogollon Rim, White
Mountains and Chuska Mountains. Storm motion over the east
Rim/White Mountains will be from north to south while over the
Chuska Mountains west to east. Most thunderstorms will generally
weak and short-lived. Otherwise, hot with southwest breezes at 5
to 15 mph with the northwest portions of Arizona seeing gusts to
25 mph.

For tonight...A dry shortwave through will begin to brush
northwest Arizona. The main impact is the nigttime winds are apt
to remain somewhat elevated and locally breezy across the
northwest corner of the state, elsewhere light winds. Continued
dry with lingering storms ending in the early evening eastern
portions.

On Thursday...Breezy and dry northwest of a Payson-Winslow-Four
Corners line with afternoon southwest breezes at 10 to 20 mph
gusting to 30 mph at higher elevations. We can`t rule a stray
storm but really, not much. The main message is that fire danger
will remain high. Along and southeast of this line isolated to
scattered afternoon showers and thunderstorms are forecast with
daytime heating. The air mass remains on the dry side for monsoon
weather so we only expect brief heavy downpours and gusty winds
with thunderstorm. Storm motion generally from southwest to
northeast. Continued hot, with an Extreme Heat Warning continuing
for the lower elevations of the Grand Canyon.

From Friday into early next week...The passing trough will draw
limited moisture northward on Friday for the best chances for
showers and thunderstorms with 20-40% coverage. After that, as
high pressure becomes center over southern Arizona, a dry air
mass from the west will overtake our Area. The only possible
survivor of this dry air intrusion will be the White Mountains
where limited storm chances will continue. Elsewhere, mainly dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Wednesday 30/18Z through Thursday 31/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected through the period, but brief MVFR conditions
north of KGCN to KPGA from HZ/FU. Additional MVFR conditions
possible along and south of a KSOW-KSJN line from heavier
SHRA/TSRA this afternoon/early evening. Outside of gusty/erratic
winds near storms, look for SW winds 10-20 kts with gusts near 25
kts this afternoon.

OUTLOOK...Thursday 31/18Z through Saturday 02/18Z...Mostly VFR
conditions expected through the period, but brief MVFR conditions
north of KGCN to KPGA from HZ/FU. Additional showers/storms
possible each afternoon. Highest coverage of storms southeast of a
KPAN-four corners line Thursday, spreading farther NW Friday, then
just in the White Mountains Saturday. Outside of gusty/erratic
winds, look for afternoon SW winds 10-20 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...This afternoon through Friday...Hot and mostly dry
conditions continue, with near-critical fire weather in northern and
western Coconino County especially on Thursday. Chance for
showers/storms each afternoon and evening, highest in the White
Mountains, with isolated activity spreading west and north by
Thursday and Friday. Most storms will be high-based and result in
gusty/erratic winds and potential dry lightning. Outside of outflow
driven winds, look for southwest winds 10-20 mph gusting near 25
mph. Minimum RH values will mostly be 5-15% across N. AZ, but
slightly higher towards the White Mountains.

Saturday through Monday...Hot and mostly dry conditions will continue.
Slight chances for showers/storms across the White Mountains, with dry
conditions elsewhere. South through west winds 10-15 mph with gusts
20-25 mph each day. Minimum RH values 5-15%.

&&

.FGZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Extreme Heat Warning until 7 PM MST Sunday for AZZ006.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...McCollum
AVIATION...JJ
FIRE WEATHER...JJ

For Northern Arizona weather information visit
weather.gov/flagstaff